August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Pas_Bon
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Location: League City, TX
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That big, bad line literally began dissipating and split right before League City

I want to crawl in a hole.
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jasons2k
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Still some light to moderate rain falling here. This will help the plants a lot. It’ll be interesting to see what transpires over the next couple of days.

Astros are tied.
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jasons2k
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I missed this earlier. From Jeff Lindner at 8:34pm:
Eventful evening in progress with southwest moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms…producing the most rainfall this region has seen since late May.

Northeasterly flow storms this time of year must always be watched as the outflow tends to arrive during peak heating producing very strong winds…this evening was no exception with several 55-60mph gusts over central and western Harris into northern Fort Bend. Inland moving seabreeze front collided with southward moving outflow boundary over northern Harris and a corridor of 2-3 inches of rain fell in an hour or less from Kingwood to Aldine to Cypress. This was widespread and much needed rainfall, but several locations recorded over an inch of rainfall in less than 15 minutes.

Line of storms will continue SW into the late evening with the strong outflow boundary pushing off the coast. Overall meso model guidance did not handle the development well this afternoon and evening as they were not aggressive enough and think the boundary will push further offshore than models think. This complicates the forecast for tomorrow as much of the area will be stable through the midday hours, but the boundary may begin to back toward the coast and then transition inland along the seabreeze during the afternoon. Tropical air mass continues to surge into the region from the Gulf, so the moisture is there, but the air mass may take a good bit of the day to recover. Think rain chances may need to be lowered some on Thursday, but should things get going late again there could be some strong storms along the seabreeze and a few storms dropping SW again from East Texas.

Tropical air mass covers much of the area on Friday and expect numerous showers and thunderstorms. Area soundings are nearly saturated so very good rainfall production in storms is expected with hourly rates of 1-3 inches possible. I have been burned with these overly tropical air masses many times where the surface coastal convergence sets up offshore or right on the coast and the inland locations get robbed of rainfall and moisture and see very little rainfall. Will see how the meso models depict things going into Thursday for Friday so rain chances are low confidence.

Moisture begins to trend downward this weekend, but I am a bit uncomfortable with the low level and 850mb trough axis still over the NW Gulf so rain chances may not trend down as much as the current forecast show.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
Stratton20
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Man the ICON just refuses to back down from its tropical storm on our doorstep scenario at hour 84, but its the icon lol
Cromagnum
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If what Jeff says holds, we aren't going to get much rain on Thursday at all.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:18 pm Still some light to moderate rain falling here. This will help the plants a lot. It’ll be interesting to see what transpires over the next couple of days.

Astros are tied.
They miss Michael Brantley big time. They just cannot generate enough offense especially without his bat.

Friday might be a bigger event than tomorrow. Not excited about tomorrow. This weekend has a possibility of being interesting.
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djmike
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Well everywhere I look, Mets seem to be saying a decrease in storm coverage today because of yesterdays rains. The atmosphere is still too worked over and stable and will take a while to recover to produce storms again. Then maybe a 20-30% coverage in the evening at best. Might as well not expect anything today. Friday still looks good for storms and showers.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Houstonkid
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1.2" in Katy. Got to the office this AM , 290/Tidwell and 2" branches blown down in the courtyard. We are a midrise building and have a window blown out somehow. A couple of exits down is Bombshells and their plastic sign on the pole is blown out.
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snowman65
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Had to drive from Galleria area back home to Orange around 8:00 last night. It rained the entire way home. So, if you live east of Katy and try to say you didnt get any rain, Im calling you out lol.. Did anyone see that coming? Got a little hairy around galleria area. Traffic lights out everywhere. Sons apartment lost power and not expected back until noon today.
Cpv17
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The HRRR is now showing a decent amount of popups beginning around 3 this afternoon for the western half of the viewing area. Basically west of 45.
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