August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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user:null wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:19 pm Why is everything here so dead? The literal sea-breeze sweeping through, even colliding with outflows ... and nothing (i.e. at time of posting).
Outflows are king down here. They kill everything.
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jasons2k
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I honestly thought today would produce more storms. I know the atmosphere got worked over last night but I had a high of 101 degrees today.🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️
Stratton20
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This gulf
disturbance has a bit of a mid level spin to it, if this develops into a weak low and tracks into south texas by saturday , you can pretty much kiss rain chances good bye
Stormlover2020
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Hrr trying to spin it up
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jasons2k
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Since all the storms out in the gulf have dissipated, that's actually a good sign for tomorrow. Hopefully the moisture surge won't be blocked.

It's also still 86 degrees here at 8:52 at night. It didn't cool off that much with the outflow boundaries.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:13 pm Since all the storms out in the gulf have dissipated, that's actually a good sign for tomorrow. Hopefully the moisture surge won't be blocked.

It's also still 86 degrees here at 8:52 at night. It didn't cool off that much with the outflow boundaries.
Tomorrow we should avoid the N-S outflow collisions. Hope springs eternal although we're just 21 days from meteorological Fall.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:13 pm Since all the storms out in the gulf have dissipated, that's actually a good sign for tomorrow. Hopefully the moisture surge won't be blocked.

It's also still 86 degrees here at 8:52 at night. It didn't cool off that much with the outflow boundaries.
Still 90°F+ up in CLL.
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don
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Theirs a small chance a system may try to develop this weekend as it nears the middle Texas coast.Not likely but something to watch just in case.
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Stratton20
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Don that would be a bad thing if it develops some, a more developed low would pull the moisture closer to it and especially since this is likely going to move into the southern texas coast, could really rob moisture from SE Texas
Cpv17
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WRF model is going bonkers in the Gulf.
Stratton20
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CPV17 down to 992 Mb wow, very unlikely but atranger things have happened with these gulf systems
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jasons2k
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You gotta be kidding me! NWS sliced my 80% chance of rain today in HALF down to 40%. How does that happen in one update? Wow. Just wow. Talk about feeling jilted at the altar!!
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jasons2k
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I knew that word “IF” was goiing to come back to bite us…
However, with this inverted trough forecast to be a little stronger, it should focus majority of the activity near the coast and offshore this afternoon. Therefore, PoPs have tapered off north of Harris County today and daytime highs have been bumped up a few degrees for our northern counties as well.
By Saturday morning, hi-res models are hinting at a weak low developing south of our CWA and in the Gulf and pushing inland somewhere near Brownsville/Corpus by late Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Once again, this will focus most of the rainfall further south and offshore than previously forecast.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:18 am You gotta be kidding me! NWS sliced my 80% chance of rain today in HALF down to 40%. How does that happen in one update? Wow. Just wow. Talk about feeling jilted at the altar!!
The writing was on the table yesterday. Better chances south of I-10.
cperk
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:52 am
jasons2k wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:18 am You gotta be kidding me! NWS sliced my 80% chance of rain today in HALF down to 40%. How does that happen in one update? Wow. Just wow. Talk about feeling jilted at the altar!!
The writing was on the table yesterday. Better chances south of I-10.
That would be us. :D
Cromagnum
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Been hearing loud thunder all night and again this morning from the cells that have stayed just north of me so far.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:52 am
jasons2k wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:18 am You gotta be kidding me! NWS sliced my 80% chance of rain today in HALF down to 40%. How does that happen in one update? Wow. Just wow. Talk about feeling jilted at the altar!!
The writing was on the table yesterday. Better chances south of I-10.

Most of us already knew it but one can hold out hope until the NWS pulls it. I was surprised they were still 80% in yesterday’s package but was hoping they saw something I didn’t. It’s still frustrating. Wednesday was supposed to be just the appetizer for the main event Thursday and Friday. I knew things would congeal offshore and rob us again. Happens way too often.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:56 am
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:52 am
jasons2k wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:18 am You gotta be kidding me! NWS sliced my 80% chance of rain today in HALF down to 40%. How does that happen in one update? Wow. Just wow. Talk about feeling jilted at the altar!!
The writing was on the table yesterday. Better chances south of I-10.

Most of us already knew it but one can hold out hope until the NWS pulls it. I was surprised they were still 80% in yesterday’s package but was hoping they saw something I didn’t. It’s still frustrating. Wednesday was supposed to be just the appetizer for the main event Thursday and Friday. I knew things would congeal offshore and rob us again. Happens way too often.
Yeah it looks like the main event will be from Victoria to Corpus. They need the rain as well too. I gotta go to Aransas Pass today to spread some fertilizer. Hopefully the rain will hold off.
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jasons2k
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When you read the SCW blog they completely ignore that today was supposed to be a big rainmaker. They just pretend it wasn't so and move right on to the next.
ajurcat
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Last night we received a surprising .92" in the Jersey Village area. We will gladly take it.
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