August 2022

[jasons2k]

Another day of Livin’ on the Edge…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7nqcL0mjMjw

[snowman65]

I gotta fly out of hobby saturday for Bham. Hope we dont have to go to Chicago to get around storms. I already see a nightmare at the airport.

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0907
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
956 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern and Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301400Z - 302000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
both coverage and intensity through the morning, becoming
widespread with rain rates of 2-4"/hr possible. This will likely
result in areas of 2-4" of rainfall with local amounts above 5"
possible. Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning indicates
rapidly expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms from the
eastern Hill Country through the coastal plain of Texas. This
convection is building in extremely favorable thermodynamics
characterized by GPS measured by 12Z U/A soundings at FWD and CRP
of 2.14 and 2.33 inches, respectively, both well above the 90th
percentile and near daily records. MUCAPE according to the SPC RAP
is already 1000-2000 J/kg, which combined with the anomalous PWs
is helping to already produce radar estimated rain rates of 2"/hr
according KGRK WSR-88D.

The forcing for ascent is already impressive and will continue to
intensify this aftn. An upper low over western TX will drift
slowly eastward placing favorable downstream divergence into
eastern TX, while a 700-500mb trough axis pivots overhead.
Additionally, a shortwave noted in WV imagery will lift slowly
northward from the Upper TX Coast. These features together will
cause low/mid level flow to increase from the Gulf of Mexico,
converging into the mid-level trough to produce an extremely
favorable environment for heavy rainfall.

As these features interact across the area, thermodynamics being
drawn northward from the Gulf will cause PWs to approach 2.4" with
SBCAPE rising above 3000 J/kg. This will support rain rates which
the HREF suggests has a greater than 60% chance for reaching
2"/hr, and the HRRR sub-hourly fields indicate the potential for
4"/hr later today. Convection containing these rain rates will be
very slow moving noted by 0-6km mean winds of just 5-10 kts,
coincident with Corfidi vectors becoming increasingly aligned into
the inflow and opposed this mean wind. This indicates a high
likelihood for backbuilding and training, which with rain rates of
2-4"/hr, could result in 2-4" of rainfall with local amounts above
5" possible as reflected by the HREF neighborhood probabilities.

Much of TX has had a dry summer and 30-day rainfall across this
area is still generally just 25-50% of normal across this area.
However, recent rainfall in the past 14-day has helped saturate
the soils, and NASA SPoRT indicates pockets of 0-40cm soil
moisture that is now above the 90th percentile. This suggests the
soils can likely handle some rainfall. However, anywhere these
excessive rates train or backbuild, they will likely overwhelm the
soils to lead to runoff and flash flooding

Weiss

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...

[Cromagnum]

Feast or famine. I really hope this weekend isn't ruined. I have two sets of tickets to two outdoor concerts and an AirBNB booked on Lake Conroe.

[jasons2k]

Man the satellite loop looks like a training setup is commencing, especially along the I-45 corridor - some spots will be slammed.

As for Labor Day weekend - blah - yeah I would like a break. Pool party was planned for the 5th with friends from Austin - I think I mentioned several days ago I was concerned it would be a washout.

[jasons2k]

I gotta fly out of hobby saturday for Bham. Hope we dont have to go to Chicago to get around storms. I already see a nightmare at the airport.

My parents and grandparents are from Bham (and Cullman). Beautiful city. Love the botanical gardens - one of the best in the country.

I was in Bham for the superstorm of ‘93. That was a crazy experience with 16” of thundersnow followed by a week of no power.

Hope you have a nice trip!

[snowman65]

I gotta fly out of hobby saturday for Bham. Hope we dont have to go to Chicago to get around storms. I already see a nightmare at the airport.

My parents and grandparents are from Bham (and Cullman). Beautiful city. Love the botanical gardens - one of the best in the country.

I was in Bham for the superstorm of ‘93. That was a crazy experience with 16” of thundersnow followed by a week of no power.

Hope you have a nice trip!

thanks. I'll be in Attala. Visiting an old Marine Corps buddy. We try to get together every 5 years or so. My turn to go to his place.

[Stratton20]

CMC 12z has a bug bullseye over the next 5-6 days of 10-15 inches in far SE Texas, but that bullseye could be anywhere, something to watch closely

[DoctorMu]

Hard Pass on Saturday, hope its dry

Saved by the early game.

[DoctorMu]

Man the satellite loop looks like a training setup is commencing, especially along the I-45 corridor - some spots will be slammed.

As for Labor Day weekend - blah - yeah I would like a break. Pool party was planned for the 5th with friends from Austin - I think I mentioned several days ago I was concerned it would be a washout.

We're in the split for now. Juicy, juicy air.

[jasons2k]

Man the satellite loop looks like a training setup is commencing, especially along the I-45 corridor - some spots will be slammed.

As for Labor Day weekend - blah - yeah I would like a break. Pool party was planned for the 5th with friends from Austin - I think I mentioned several days ago I was concerned it would be a washout.

We're in the split for now. Juicy, juicy air.

Me too. First it was all west of me, now all east of me. The forming line just skipped by me.

[jasons2k]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Will be continuing with this messy forecast for the bulk of of our
terminals for the rest of this afternoon/early evening. Low to mid
level convergence along with shortwave activity moving in from the
west will help to keep the mention of TSRA in for site generally N
of SGR/HOU the next several hours. Activity to decrease during the
evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Did add MVFR ceil-
ings for some inland terminals heading into sunrise tomorrow on in
to the early morning hours. Closer to the coast, isolated SHRA are
going to be possible starting by the very very early morning hours
tomorrow. Generally light/variable winds expected the rest of this
afternoon (outside any thunderstorms) and tonight. Winds to remain
on the light side tomorrow (5-10kts) from the SE/E. 41

[Cpv17]

CMC 12z has a bug bullseye over the next 5-6 days of 10-15 inches in far SE Texas, but that bullseye could be anywhere, something to watch closely

This weekend is definitely looking wet but it hasn’t really popped up in any forecasts yet. Probably waiting for more models to jump onboard before they really increase chances.

[jasons2k]

And now a new line forms….off to the west. Still stuck in a dead zone.

[Cpv17]

And now a new line forms….off to the west. Still stuck in a dead zone.

We haven’t really had much here today either but I’m not complaining because we got a lot yesterday.

[jasons2k]

And now a new line forms….off to the west. Still stuck in a dead zone.

We haven’t really had much here today either but I’m not complaining because we got a lot yesterday.

I had another nice shower this morning so that was nice. But still — I just want one good old-fashioned 1” plus soaker. It’s been since April or May. Every. Single. Time. I get crumbs and leftovers. Can’t I just get one!?!?!?

I keep looking south, hoping that warm air flowing from the Gulf can spark something but I’m so deep behind the cool outflow at this point, whatever forms may not make it. We’ll see…

[Cpv17]

Not only will we need to watch out for another round of heavy rains this coming weekend but it’s now looking like we’ll need to pay attention to next week too because we could have an EPAC system crossing over from Mexico to deal with and those setups can be pretty dangerous sometimes.

[TexasBreeze]

The line to the west is slowly building in this direction.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 why can those be dangerous?

Edit: I see what you mean, Euro brings in a WPAC system at the ends of its run into the state and has some pretty big totals

[DoctorMu]

And now a new line forms….off to the west. Still stuck in a dead zone.

Finally getting slammed here. 1+ in of rain so far.

The first time April? March? with lines of heavy rain. Hope the line continues to move east in your direction.