August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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A repeat of yesterday's split in the seabreeze and donut hole here in CLL.

Not sure about next weekend and any tropical mischief, but I do see consistently across the models is an upper level trough across SE Texas bringing scattered showers Thursday and Friday.

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Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 071954
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
254 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022


.SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...

A few showers and storms were able to initiate along the sea breeze
this afternoon, but activity will quickly subside after sunset
tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight
will be warm and humid and only cool to the upper 70s inland and low
80s near the coast.

Tomorrow, the overall synoptic pattern remains fairly similar.
Surface high pressure will remain over the Southern US and extend
into Southeast Texas. 850mb temps climb a few degrees and therefore
surface high temperatures climb a degree or two tomorrow as well.
Although subsidence aloft and a slightly stronger 850mb cap will be
in place on Monday, afternoon heating, low level moisture advection,
and lifting along the sea/bay breeze should still generate enough
instability to produce isolated showers and storms tomorrow
afternoon. Unfortunately, only areas south of Conroe will get 20-30%
PoPs in the afternoon since the best low level forcing will remain
near the sea/bay breeze and any resultant cold pool from collapsing
showers and storms
. Once again, this convection will subside after
sunset and overnight lows will cool to the upper 70s to low 80s.

Walts


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

Typical summer-like pattern is expected, at least through
Wednesday with isolated coastal showers in the mornings and
scattered thunderstorms inland in the afternoon due to diurnal
heating and sea/bay breezes. Return flow from the sfc high to our
east (Southeastern CONUS) will continue to provide a continued and
persistent onshore flow over the Gulf and into the region after
Wednesday. PWAT values will increase at or above 2 inches, which
is near the 90 percent moving average, per sounding climatology
for early August standards. I
n addition to increasing moisture,
with the region positioned on the southeastern edge of the upper-
level ridge, it will have the influence of some weak and
progressive shortwaves moving westward along the flow. Therefore,
deep moisture combined with weak forcing will provide enough
dynamic for convection Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. The
best chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive
Thursday and Friday as an inverted mid to upper lvl trough tracks
west into the TX coast from north-central Gulf. Deterministic
models and most ensemble means are in better agreement and bring
this trough by Thursday. There is still some uncertainty in the
evolution and QPF amounts this far out.
As of now, the main
message is that unsettled weather is expected towards the end of
the work week with periods of locally moderate to heavy rain. For
Saturday and beyond, diurnal convection will be possible each day
along the seabreeze and as different shortwaves embedded along the
ridge aloft move through the region.

Increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances will lead to
near to slightly above normal temperatures this week into the
weekend. Highs will generally be in the 90s and overnight lows
mainly from the mid to upper 70s.

05

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail. High pressure settling in overhead
will lead to a noticeable decrease in afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Showers will be very isolated south of CXO this
afternoon from 20-00Z. Shortly after sunset, any convection will
quickly dissipate. Winds will become light and variable overnight,
and some models are hinting at patchy fog north of IAH from
12-14Z, but held off mentioning it in TAFs for now. Early morning
coastal showers possible for GLS and LBX from 09-13Z tomorrow
morning too. Afterwards, tomorrow`s forecast will be very similar
to today`s, but perhaps a little more coverage in afternoon
showers and storms.

Walts

&&

.MARINE...

Benign marine conditions as surface high pressure remains in place,
resulting in light to moderate onshore winds. Caution flags (Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution) conditions are expected at times,
particularly from late evenings into early mornings. Seas will
generally remain from 2 to 3 ft, occasionally up to 4ft through the
period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected each day,
with the best chances at night. Widespread precipitation chances
are expected after Wednesday as a surface trough (disturbance) moves
across the western Gulf through early Saturday.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 78 100 77 102 78 / 20 10 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 78 94 77 97 76 / 10 30 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 93 84 93 84 / 20 20 10 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...Walts
LONG TERM...Maldonado
AVIATION...Walts
MARINE...Maldonado
Stratton20
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Rain totals so far look rather unimpressive for the thursday/ friday time period, fingers crossed the QPF goes up
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DoctorMu
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Considering we've had 0.1 in of rain since May 26, I will gladly take an unimpressive 1-2 in of rainfall.
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jasons2k
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Totally soaked the back lawn yesterday. Working on the front now.
Watch it finally rain today haha.
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snowman65
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We must have had 2" yesterday in a very short time span. Maybe an hour. It was coming DOWN.
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:39 am We must have had 2" yesterday in a very short time span. Maybe an hour. It was coming DOWN.
It always rains around Orange. It’s basically just a few steps away from LA.
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TxLady
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DoctorMu and Stratton20, I feel your pain. I am about 75 miles East & slightly South of You. It has been a long time since the grass has been crunchy. I live on acreage, with a water well. We don't water the grass. We worry about the Well running dry, in times like these! My property actually backs up to the Sam Houston National Forest. Thank Goodness the Forest Service is diligent about controlled burns for Wildfire control. My Nephew is currently deployed for the 5th or 6th time with our local Wildland Firefighter Team, currently to the Austin/Bastrop area. It's starting to get worrisome, to say the least.
Stratton20
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TxLady wow thats bad! I want rain badly, but its hard to be optimistic about seeing any accumulating rain considering we get donut holed every time!
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djmike
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Lookin better on latest 7 day QPF!
4B2563A4-366A-42B2-9469-144996DA78F7.jpeg
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Stratton20
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djmike that map looks better for sure! But…..😆😆😆
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:35 pm djmike that map looks better for sure! But…..😆😆😆
Consistent easterly winds in the mid-levels will bring rain eventually. Definitely a much different pattern than most of this summer.
Stratton20
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captainbarbossa19 I agree, but I just dont wanna get my hopes up ya know? It is demoralizing getting donut holed this frequently by storms lol
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:56 pm captainbarbossa19 I agree, but I just dont wanna get my hopes up ya know? It is demoralizing getting donut holed this frequently by storms lol
I understand. Trees have not had enough rain yet to stop the stress of the drought at my farm. It's going to rain a lot eventually though. It will probably be more than we need too.
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jasons2k
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As usual, a big gap in the sea breeze where I need something to pop.

After seeing the same thing day after day I’m beginning to wonder if the SE flow off of Galveston Bay as it juts inland has an effect on the instability/convergence of the sea breeze as it moves inland. This can’t just always be a random occurrence every day.
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jasons2k
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Nada
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Stratton20
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I am liking the pattern change im seeing in the medium-long range in the GFS ( at least on the 18z run) has persistent troughiness dominating the central and eastern us, the ridge is displaced to the east and west of us and never builds in truely
Stratton20
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Holy smokes its raining here in CS!!!! I can confirm water is now falling from
the sky!!😄😄😄😄😄🥲🥲
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jasons2k
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Morning update from Jeff Lindner:
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday-Saturday.

After months of drought and heat it finally appears that much of the area will see some relief this week as several factors combine to bring widespread rains to the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop along the seabreeze today…these storms will have the potential to produce lightning induced fires (as seen yesterday over east Texas). Wednesday starts the same as today, but changes begin by afternoon as a decent shortwave in the developing eastern US trough digs southward over the MS valley. This feature will likely help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over SE TX with this activity lasting well into the evening hours on Wednesday. On Thursday a mid level low along the northern Gulf coast moves westward and into Texas with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely. Moisture levels will become increasingly saturated with PWS of 2.0-2.3 inches late Wednesday-Saturday and this will support some heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday is in the 60-70% range for much of the area including the very parched western and northwestern areas.

High moisture levels linger into the weekend with a weak boundary drifting southward from the north. This will likely keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms ongoing into Saturday. With increasing clouds, moisture, and rain chances temperatures will likely fall short of average highs for the first time in a long time on Thursday and Friday.

Fire Weather:
Last several days have featured numerous grass and wildfires over the region including a 400 acre fire near Lake Somerville which burned 2 homes and threatened 13 others. This fire was quickly fanned by strong thunderstorm outflow winds of 40-50mph which resulted in extensive burn rates and crowning/spotting. Yesterday evening, several fires started due to lightning in eastern Texas from Jasper County into Trinity and Polk Counties. Weather conditions continue to be generally unfavorable for the development and spread of fires, but vegetation and the background drought state is compensating for the light winds and higher humidity levels. Relief in the form of widespread showers and thunderstorms later this week should help reduce fuel load dryness to some degree.

Tropics:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean (97L) is moving westward with limited thunderstorm activity and organization. This wave has about a 40% chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next few days before conditions become increasingly unfavorable with stable air and increasing wind shear.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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jasons2k
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I know it’s early, but once again a big void over the Houston area. Rain off to the Northeast and also to our Southwest.
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