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Sounds of thunder in the Gulfgate area of Houston as the storms approach

Everyone should get something today.

So far this summer, Galveston + surrounding areas of the bay have been big winners. In fact, Galveston is the only first order site that has been close to average this summer for rainfall (i.e. even was slightly above its average for July).

So far, the radar looks good. Lets see if inner Houston and other places farther inland can get in on the successes. Weather.com is also throwing up abundant rain chances continuing next week...

What a damn joke.

Outflow crossing me now.
The line of convection is broken, not a solid complex.
I’ve seen this 1,000 times now. I’ll believe it when I see it raining.

Storms beginning to fall apart north of i-50 or whatever that cursed highway is called, another day of no rain, next

This cloud is being so stubborn, just won’t open up yet. Probably will just after it passes me again.

Yep, sure enough. Very next frame it exploded into red just as it passed me. Peeking “upstream” I see blue skies. Excuse me while I go puke now. This is just sick at this point.

Yep. Driveway didn't even get wet.

Right on the edge, but it’s moving SW. Ugh!!! Just a couple of teaser pings to troll me but sitting at 0.00”

And off it goes to the SW.

0.00”

Sinking feeling confirmed.

00
FXUS64 KHGX 051739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

TSRA will continue to move westward across most of the terminals
this afternoon. Expect wind gusts up to 25 knots with any
thunderstorms. Storms will gradually taper off/weaken from east to
west by late this afternoon/early evening. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected overnight into Saturday
morning, with the best chances along the coastal terminals and
KSGR, KHOU. Potential for scattered storms are again expected
Saturday afternoon; therefore, have included VCTS at KIAH. Some
MVFR conditions are expected with any storms this afternoon and
overnight into mid-morning Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through the period.

Time to make the donuts!!

12z Euro is showing a cutoff low developing over the South towards the end of the run. If this develops, we may have to watch for potential southern shifts in the track. It could be potential tropical trouble if it gets over the Gulf. The low is trapped underneath the ridge so it is moving west towards Texas by day 10.

Flash Flood Warning just issued Jefferson/Orange County. Storms headed west.

Been raining since noon in Beaumont. Another round headed our way from orange. Another 3-4” possible over the few hours.

Stay weather aware if driving 1-10 east towards Beaumont/Lake Charles.

captainbarbossa19 i would love that, just stinks that its at the end of the model run though

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:37 pm captainbarbossa19 i would love that, just stinks that its at the end of the model run though

Yeah but you have to remember that setups like this are notorious for flood events. While we do need rain, we don't need a flood. That's trading one problem for another.

captainbarbossa19 oh no you’re absolutely apot on, im just sayinf a cut off low would be the perfect setup for some widespread rain, even inland unlike today haha, but like you said with that ridge building in things could get interesting if it gets out over water, lots of available heat energy to tap into

djmike wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:36 pm Flash Flood Warning just issued Jefferson/Orange County. Storms headed west.

Been raining since noon in Beaumont. Another round headed our way from orange. Another 3-4” possible over the few hours.

Stay weather aware if driving 1-10 east towards Beaumont/Lake Charles.

Yep the same places get inches and inches of rain and some of us can’t even be spared something to wet the grass.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:45 pm

djmike wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:36 pm Flash Flood Warning just issued Jefferson/Orange County. Storms headed west.

Been raining since noon in Beaumont. Another round headed our way from orange. Another 3-4” possible over the few hours.

Stay weather aware if driving 1-10 east towards Beaumont/Lake Charles.

Yep the same places get inches and inches of rain and some of us can’t even be spared something to wet the grass.

If the cutoff low forms, that will not be a problem anymore. This current pattern for August is starting off far different compared to 2011. Early August then was very dry for all of SE Texas. Bush recorded only 0.09 inches for the whole month. We were dreaming of even a chance of rain. This weekend and next week look fairly decent for rain chances and I also think we have likely already had our hottest weather this summer assuming a major hurricane doesn't move inland to our east.