Page 8 of 55
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:24 am
by Stratton20
jasons2k im not either haha, just figured it was worth mentioning aince it is August after all
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:28 am
by Cromagnum
Gonna finish my sprinkler system fixes today and I guess I'll already be using it. SMH
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:31 pm
by jasons2k
Here we go again. Another donut served cold. You can thank this morning’s breakfast convection for it.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:58 pm
by DoctorMu
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:28 am
Gonna finish my sprinkler system fixes today and I guess I'll already be using it. SMH
Despite our sprinkler system, we've lost grass in the back. At least the front lawn is ok.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:58 pm
by DoctorMu
The sea breeze is donut holing, but at least it is overcast, keeping temps in the low 90s for now.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:49 pm
by user:null
jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:31 pm
Here we go again. Another donut served cold. You can thank this morning’s breakfast convection for it.
Maybe just a delay until later in afternoon? Stuff now starting to burst in Brazoria, so maybe @Cromagnum can get something?
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:52 pm
by user:null
These forcasters are all over the place, though. NWS discussion implies the inverted trough already moved in west, hence their references to high rain chances west of I-45/inland areas that missed out yesterday.
But look at the radar, and still loads of coverage in the Golden Triangle, Lake Charles areas?
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:39 pm
by jasons2k
The sun is peeking out again. Yes, a window for some convection to reform now. Fingers crossed but it feels more like desperation.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:16 pm
by DoctorMu
I might as well call this seabreeze Shipley's because it's donut holing right past us.
"Only" 94°F, so we've got that going for us.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:18 pm
by Katdaddy
.50” so far and might get another shower. The yard is happy.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:19 pm
by don
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:24 am
jasons2k im not either haha, just figured it was worth mentioning aince it is August after all
FWIW the 12z GFS also shows the same system as the ICON. The GFS breifly develops it into a depression off of the Louisiana coast before shearing out.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:54 pm
by Cpv17
I’m not sure what the CPC is seeing to show a chance for above normal rainfall for southern/southeastern TX over the next few weeks but I’ll take it. I don’t really see anything on the models that would lead me to believe that but they obviously see something. Although the latest 12z Euro did look halfway decent for us.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:21 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:54 pm
I’m not sure what the CPC is seeing to show a chance for above normal rainfall for southern/southeastern TX over the next few weeks but I’ll take it. I don’t really see anything on the models that would lead me to believe that but they obviously see something. Although the latest 12z Euro did look halfway decent for us.
Continued easterly flow for us. This time of year, that is what you want to see when you need rain. That pattern can be dangerous though heading towards peak season.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:39 pm
by Cpv17
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:54 pm
I’m not sure what the CPC is seeing to show a chance for above normal rainfall for southern/southeastern TX over the next few weeks but I’ll take it. I don’t really see anything on the models that would lead me to believe that but they obviously see something. Although the latest 12z Euro did look halfway decent for us.
Continued easterly flow for us. This time of year, that is what you want to see when you need rain. That pattern can be dangerous though heading towards peak season.
I sure hope so. We need rain here desperately. This is the driest it’s been here since 2011. Starting to see some pretty big cracks in the ground. Pastures are completely fried. Nothing for livestock to eat. Only bad thing is if it starts raining here now, the cotton farmers are going to have a hard time getting in the fields for harvest.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:49 pm
by DoctorMu
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:54 pm
I’m not sure what the CPC is seeing to show a chance for above normal rainfall for southern/southeastern TX over the next few weeks but I’ll take it. I don’t really see anything on the models that would lead me to believe that but they obviously see something. Although the latest 12z Euro did look halfway decent for us.
Continued easterly flow for us. This time of year, that is what you want to see when you need rain. That pattern can be dangerous though heading towards peak season.
Yes, indeed. More easterly flow just under the ridge.
A few showers just literally jumped our yard.
The trees are doing better than 2011, but not the grass. Large patches are tanking. Going to try more high nitrogen fertilizer with iron.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:49 pm
by Stratton20
Don 18z ICON at day 5 OR HOUR 120 ,still trying ti close off a low in the NW GOM fwiw
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:50 pm
by Cromagnum
I sweat on my lawn more than it rained on it yesterday or today. Bring on something tropical. I give up.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:05 pm
by Katdaddy
Hmmmm....an easterly wave in the GOM next week......from this afternoons HOU-GAL AFD:
A significant pattern arrives for the latter half of the workweek
as deterministic models bring an easterly wave over the
northeastern Gulf. Models are not in good agreement in terms of
timing and evolution of this inverted trough. However, most of
them place this system over the Gulf waters Wed through Sat,
resulting in abundant moisture over the region thanks to
persistent onshore winds. There is high uncertainty regarding the
evolution of this wave as the 12Z GFS develops a sfc low over the
north-central Gulf by Thursday, slowly tracking westward into the
Upper TX coast by the weekend. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
suggests a faster and weaker solution with the inverted trough
arriving Thursday into Friday. Given the amount of uncertainty in
the forecast Wednesday and beyond, have kept PoPs as NBM guidance
suggests with increasing precipitation chances Thursday and
Friday. This will be another potential period to monitor for
increasing precipitation chances.
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:21 pm
by suprdav2
0.00"
Re: August 2022
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:20 pm
by DoctorMu
Katdaddy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:05 pm
Hmmmm....an easterly wave in the GOM next week......from this afternoons HOU-GAL AFD:
A significant pattern arrives for the latter half of the workweek
as deterministic models bring an easterly wave over the
northeastern Gulf. Models are not in good agreement in terms of
timing and evolution of this inverted trough. However, most of
them place this system over the Gulf waters Wed through Sat,
resulting in abundant moisture over the region thanks to
persistent onshore winds. There is high uncertainty regarding the
evolution of this wave as the 12Z GFS develops a sfc low over the
north-central Gulf by Thursday, slowly tracking westward into the
Upper TX coast by the weekend. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
suggests a faster and weaker solution with the inverted trough
arriving Thursday into Friday. Given the amount of uncertainty in
the forecast Wednesday and beyond, have kept PoPs as NBM guidance
suggests with increasing precipitation chances Thursday and
Friday. This will be another potential period to monitor for
increasing precipitation chances.
Bring it. Keep those easterlies going.