September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Pas_Bon
Posts: 303
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:58 am
Location: League City, TX
Contact:

Pas_Bon wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:06 am
Pas_Bon wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 7:36 am The rain train is starting to roll…..
And by "starting to roll," I meant....not starting to roll. :(
and by "not starting to roll," I meant.....starting to roll.....lol
Stratton20
Posts: 4246
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Game delayed at halftime due to a silly small little cell, what a joke lol
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 1:29 pm Game delayed at halftime due to a silly small little cell, what a joke lol
That storm just to the south of town is expanding and back building a bit. Might be a while before the game is able to resume.
Stratton20
Posts: 4246
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 its moving away from us though
Cromagnum
Posts: 2616
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

New cell forming right on top of CS, and more to the west.
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 1:44 pm Cpv17 its moving away from us though
Yes from west to east but it’s close enough to Kyle Field to cause a delay. Plus new cells are firing off now.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4471
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:25 pm Megadeth was awesome. First time seeing them live. Dave still has it. Just sprinkles up here which was good. Five Finger Death Punch has a hard act to follow.
I so wanted to go. I have seen them 5 times. Their new album, The Sick, The Dying and the Dead came out yesterday. Back to weather, cells popping all over.
Stratton20
Posts: 4246
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Mother nature can suck a fat one, game delay by an hour smh
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 2:33 pm Mother nature can suck a fat one, game delay by an hour smh
I told you it might be a while lol all that humidity y’all were feeling out there. Fuel for the fire bro.
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

A huge line of storms just blew up just south of Jason again! :lol:
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5385
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:04 pm A huge line of storms just blew up just south of Jason again! :lol:
You ordered some donuts?
Attachments
133FA366-5863-4142-AB6D-1C563878C004.png
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Seeing some signs in the long range that aren’t very good. Hope we can all get some decent rains the next few days.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5385
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm Seeing some signs in the long range that aren’t very good. Hope we can all get some decent rains the next few days.
Me too. I’m up to a whopping 0.03” on ‘flood day’

Yeah I wish I could just go ahead and move already.
weatherguy425
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 830
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:45 pm
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm Seeing some signs in the long range that aren’t very good. Hope we can all get some decent rains the next few days.
Me too. I’m up to a whopping 0.03” on ‘flood day’

Yeah I wish I could just go ahead and move already.
I don’t think at Day 1 ‘Slight Risk’ of excessive rainfall qualifies as “everyone is going to get drenched”. Just try to enjoy the light steady rain you are getting. More chances of rain over the next couple weeks. :) ;)
User avatar
don
Posts: 2612
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

It's pouring down here. The radar is beautiful with widespread rain over the metro. 🙂
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5674
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Ensemble and global models long range looks like typical September in the area. 30% chance of daily rain. High around 90°F. Low in the low 70s.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5674
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Jason - I see your donut maker.

A retrograde cell heading toward CLL. Hope everyone makes it safely out of the Kyle Field parking lots.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
333 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

An inverted coastal trough is pushing onshore and merging with
southerly moving outflow boundaries from storms that initiated along
the I-10 corridor earlier this afternoon.
Meanwhile, a weak
stationary front north of Conroe is also pushing south and merging
with convection along the I-10 corridor. Overall, with rich PWs
(2.2"), deep warm cloud layers (~16kft), minimal low level steering
flow, and plenty of "skinny" CAPE at 1500-2500 J/kg, these
widespread showers and storms have the potential for efficient
localized heavy rainfall. Just earlier at our office in Dickinson,
we received around 2.5" in less than an hour, prompting a flood
advisory for the area. Convection will continue to be synoptically
driven with this stationary front pushing south as well as mesoscale
driven with outflow boundaries initiating new storms. This pattern
of widespread activity will continue over the next several hours and
begin to dissipate after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
We`ll get a brief lull tonight, but with enhanced forcing from the
inverted trough near the coast and the stationary front stalled
somewhere south of I-10, showers and storms will begin to develop
south of I-10 late tonight and through tomorrow, leading to another
day of widespread showers and storms across Southeast Texas, with
most coverage expected south of I-10. An additional 1 to 3+ inches
of rainfall is expected tomorrow. However, with ample rainfall
across Southeast Texas today and very little time for soil to
recover, flash flood guidance has been lowered for tomorrow.
Therefore, WPC has placed most areas south of I-10 in a slight risk
for excessive rainfall.

Regarding temperatures, tonight and tomorrow night will cool off
into low 70s inland and upper 70s near the coast. Tomorrow`s daytime
highs will struggle to reach 90 south of Huntsville, but our
northernmost counties could reach near 90.
Tomorrow night will reach the low 70s once again.

Walts

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

H5 trof axis stretching from the Great Lakes into Texas will very,
very, very slowly track ese across the area thru midweek. Daily
chances of shra/tstms will continue. The southeast 1/2-1/4 of the
CWA (say maybe along & east of the I-69/Highway 59 corridor) will
be situated in the move favorable locations in regards to
available moisture and tracks of embedded impulses moving
overhead. This is where overall precip coverage/chances should be
higher. It should be diurnally driven for the most part.

In the midweek time period, guidance suggests a piece of the trof
cuts off somewhere in the Mississippi Valley then eventually sags
south then southwest back toward the upper Texas coast heading
into the weekend as ridging builds to its north. We`ll continue to
see some sct activity Wed-Fri with the typical seabreeze &
possibly some upper disturbances riding in from the north. Might
get back into the soup late next weekend depending on the
positioning of the upper low and possible sfc easterly wave...but
that`s beyond the scope of this fcst package. 47

&&
Cromagnum
Posts: 2616
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

tireman4 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 2:19 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:25 pm Megadeth was awesome. First time seeing them live. Dave still has it. Just sprinkles up here which was good. Five Finger Death Punch has a hard act to follow.
I so wanted to go. I have seen them 5 times. Their new album, The Sick, The Dying and the Dead came out yesterday. Back to weather, cells popping all over.
The Dark horse last night was The Hu. They were very fun to watch.
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

We didn’t get anything here except for some drizzle. Maybe tomorrow.
suprdav2
Posts: 94
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:39 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

1.86" today out here in Cypress. Heavy downpours at times.
Post Reply
  • Information