September 2022

[jasons2k]

0.00”

Again

[Cpv17]

0.00”

Again

You must not be living right, Jason.

[Cpv17]

Finally back! It's been MONTHS!

I reached 112°F in July, which is the 2nd hottest Temperature I've ever recorded and experienced.

Dude I thought you just completely vanished from here lol

[Iceresistance]

Finally back! It's been MONTHS!

I reached 112°F in July, which is the 2nd hottest Temperature I've ever recorded and experienced.

Dude I thought you just completely vanished from here lol

I was vacationing like crazy. Went to Florida in April/May (Was here briefly afterword), then the Great Wolf Lodge in Grapevine in June. Which was why I wasn't here at all!

Also nearly forgot that this forum existed for a while as well.

[cperk]

The NHC has put a yellow alert on the system the GFS and the Icon has been developing the last few days.

[dp6]

I'm afraid that one is eventually going to be very bad news for somewhere in the US, and can't rule out a very unusual end of Sept/Oct Texas hit.

[Iceresistance]

The NHC has put a yellow alert on the system the GFS and the Icon has been developing the last few days.

It's now at 10/40, which is a 5 day orange.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201114
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Summer-like conditions can be expected today as a mid to upper level
ridge lingers over Eastern Texas. 500mb heights within the ridge
reach 594 dam with 850mb temperatures sitting around the 18-20C
range. This will work to bring above normal temperatures,
reminiscent of the summer, with highs reaching the mid to upper
90s inland and mid to lower 90s along the coast. Subsidence from
the ridge and dry conditions will largely suppress rain chances
today. A few isolated showers could develop in areas south of I-10
and west of I-45, where PWATS peak around 1.5-1.6 inches. Though,
any showers that do develop should taper off late in the
afternoon as a surface high over the Lower Mississippi Valley
drifts into our area.

The aforementioned mid to upper level ridge will drift west towards
Central Texas on Wednesday. Increasing subsidence from the ridge and
diminishing moisture will bring clear skies during the day. This, in
turn, will improve diurnal heating, allowing for highs to increase
by a degree or two. Highs on Wednesday should be in the mid to
upper 90s for inland areas with a few locations threatening to
break triple digits.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022

The hot and dry weather pattern will persist in the Thursday-Friday
time period with near record high temperatures possible as mid/upper
level ridging across Texas remains in control. Highs both days are
expected to reach the mid to upper 90s mainly to the south of the
Interstate 10 corridor and upper 90s to low 100s to the north of the
corridor (Thursday and Friday high temperature records are listed in
the Climate section below). Falling heights and a break in the ridge
over the weekend will allow area highs to cool down just a tad, and
look for readings closer to a low 90s near the coast to the mid to
upper 90s inland range. The break in the ridge should allow for a
return of possible shower and thunderstorm development, but that
return is expected to hold off until Sunday. Some rain chances will
remain in the forecast into Monday ahead of a cold front that should
be moving through the area. If this developing pattern holds true
(mid/upper level ridge out west and a trough out east) and the front
does sweep on through, we might actually be talking about comfortably
cool nights (lows in the 60s for almost all inland spots on Monday
night and especially on Tuesday night).

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Patchy fog and isolated MVFR CIGS have developed across portions
of SE Texas this morning. Any and all fog/CIGs should burn off
shortly after sunrise, allowing VFR conditions to prevail
throughout the day. Light to moderate E/SE winds will develop
during the afternoon with isolated showers possible in areas
south of I-10 and west of I-45. Light and variable winds should
return late this evening.

03


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022

With high pressure in control, mainly light and variable winds along
with low seas and dry weather can be expected through the period.
The next best chance of rain does not arrive until Sunday.

42

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

CLL: Thu - 102 set in 2005
Fri - 101 set in 1893

IAH: Thu - 100 set in 2005
Fri - 96 set in 1993

HOU: Thu - 99 set in 2005
Fri - 96 set in 2005

GLS: Thu - 95 set in 2005
Fri - 93 set in 1998

PSX: Thu - 100 set in 2005
Fri - 98 set in 2005

42/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 72 98 73 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 73 98 75 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 90 80 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...03
MARINE...42
CLIMATE...42/03

[redneckweather]

GFS is still showing our first decent cold front around the 26th which will keep any system away from us.

[sambucol]

GFS is still showing our first decent cold front around the 26th which will keep any system away from us.

If that cold front will even make it down here. If I recall correctly, a cold front was supposed to make it down here in time to keep Hurricane Ike away from us. Nope. The front didn’t make it in time, so I’m not counting on any cold front making it here in time. I hope it does. But not banking on it.

[cperk]

GFS is still showing our first decent cold front around the 26th which will keep any system away from us.

If that cold front will even make it down here. If I recall correctly, a cold front was supposed to make it down here in time to keep Hurricane Ike away from us. Nope. The front didn’t make it in time, so I’m not counting on any cold front making it here in time. I hope it does. But not banking on it.

You are so right plus the Icon and the CMC has it missing that trough the Euro is late to the party as usual and the GFS has an east bias
so i'm not buying into it.

[tsb2107]

Correct, the front made it after Ike. I remember not having power for over two weeks and that cool front really helped cool things down.

[redneckweather]

GFS is still showing our first decent cold front around the 26th which will keep any system away from us.

If that cold front will even make it down here. If I recall correctly, a cold front was supposed to make it down here in time to keep Hurricane Ike away from us. Nope. The front didn’t make it in time, so I’m not counting on any cold front making it here in time. I hope it does. But not banking on it.

Correct but that was earlier in September (landfall Sept. 13th) and was a fairly weak front (lowered humidity levels). I'm thinking this will be a pretty legit front being late September. We will see.

[Rip76]

Correct, the front made it after Ike. I remember not having power for over two weeks and that cool front really helped cool things down.

It was like the next day I believe.

[tireman4]

Correct, the front made it after Ike. I remember not having power for over two weeks and that cool front really helped cool things down.

Ike helped to pull it down, if memory serves.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Light and variable wind will transition to the SE this afternoon
around 5-8 knots. With mostly clear skies and light/variable wind
overnight, areas of fog will be possible at some terminals. Have
included 6SM BR for this package, but lower visibility could be
included in future TAFs, mainly for SGR and LBX sites. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through most of the period.

05

[Cpv17]

98L has a very slim chance at coming here. Not concerned about it at all. If this were 2 or 3 weeks back then I’d be more concerned.

[Stratton20]

Even if its a slim chance it still has to be watched, nothing is close to being set in stone, their is a significant spread in the ensembles still, we need to see where the low forms first, and it depends on the speed of the trough that models are showing picking up 98L in the gulf, if the trough moves out faster than what models are showing, that allows ridging to build in and force this more west, if the trough is slower to move out, 98L will feel the tug more NE and turn towards Florida, but for now Texas is certainly not out of the woods, 10-11 days from any sort of US impacts, alot will and can change, im cautiously optimistic this wont be our problem, but I am absolutely not writing it off either, very complicated forecast ahead

[cperk]

Nobody has any idea where 98L will be landfalling 10+ days out we've all seen this setup many times a system entering the western caribbean with a trough forecast to drop down and weaken the high enough to induce a turn to the N or NW but the fly in the ointment will be the timing and i've seen many people forecasting this situation 10 days out blowing it big time.

[AtascocitaWX]

Since we have not had any significate Storm in the Gulf this summer, Those waters are boiling. if this gets into the Gulf, Whoever gets this storm may be dealing with a monster.