His projection on landfall..
Looking further into the 6Z Euro, it moves Ian slower, allowing it to be blocked by building high pressure to the north on Thursday. That's the little wiggle in the track you see west of Tampa on the ensembles below. Once the high moves east, Ian continues north toward the panhandle, where it would encounter increasing wind shear and very dry air. That could cause Ian to weaken to a TS before it moved inland up in the panhandle. Would be quite good for those of you on the FL peninsula if this happens. Only one run, though. Ian's forward speed next 48 hrs will be key.
September 2022
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4480
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022
With the initial wind shift/pre-frontal trough now located off the
coast, the cooler/drier air mass (currently over the northern half
of the CWA) is now making its way south as well. N/NE winds (10-12
kts) with gusts (15-24 kts) will prevail this afternoon behind the
main cold front. Winds should decrease by this evening through to-
night (4-7 kts) before picking up a bit again tomorrow morning (7-
11 kts). Otherwise VFR. 41
&&
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022
With the initial wind shift/pre-frontal trough now located off the
coast, the cooler/drier air mass (currently over the northern half
of the CWA) is now making its way south as well. N/NE winds (10-12
kts) with gusts (15-24 kts) will prevail this afternoon behind the
main cold front. Winds should decrease by this evening through to-
night (4-7 kts) before picking up a bit again tomorrow morning (7-
11 kts). Otherwise VFR. 41
&&
SOI continues to rise..terrible.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I suspect this board will be quiet as a mouse for the next couple of weeks, with no rain in sight…….
Feels great outside right now compared to how it's been.
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redneckweather
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
Low's in the 60's and then lows in the 50's later on this week and into the weekend. Nice legit front to kick off the fall season!
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Dont get too excited, enjoy a few days of fall before Second Summer returns
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4480
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 271213
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
713 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Warm but much drier conditions prevail in the immediate term
following the passage of yesterday`s surface cold front. Broad
surface high pressure remains in place over the South Central CONUS
behind the boundary, while light to moderate northeast winds will
provide dry/cold advection over the next several days that will
continue to produce benign weather conditions area-wide. Winds look
to increase slightly on Wednesday, particularly along the coast, as
the entrance of Hurricane Ian into the Eastern Gulf will tighten the
synoptic pressure gradient. With surface dew points continuing to
hold steady in the 40s inland and the 50s closer to the coast,
conditions should remain fairly pleasant. Daytime highs today and
tomorrow should reach around 90, while clear skies overnight will
allow for efficient radiative cooling and lows mainly in the upper
50s/lower 60s as a result.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Mostly clear, dry and comfortable wx will persist into the
weekend with surface & mid level ridging prevailing. As the
eventual remnants of Hurricane Ian push further n/ne up the
eastern parts of the country, we`ll eventually begin to see the
the more dominate northeasterly llvl flow weaken enough to where
we might be able to see the landbreeze/seabreeze circulation take
shape closer to the coast early next week. But even then, we`re
just splitting hairs and talking about a very slight uptick in the
dewpoints across coastal locations. Rain chances should be nil
thru the period. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 711 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the TAF
period. Light to moderate northeast winds will veer slightly to
the east over the course of the day, with some higher gusts
possible during the afternoon. Skies continue to remain clear with
high pressure overhead.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Moderate northeast winds will continue for the next several days.
Seas will be on an upward trend and Small Craft Advisories may be
required at times during the midweek time period. A longer period
east swell associated with Hurricane Ian will begin arriving in
the upper Texas coastal waters late Wednesday...then begin
diminishing late Thursday into Friday. With the northeasterly
component to the winds and elevated seas/swell in place,
anticipate we`ll see water levels running above normal. PETTS
guidance indicates levels topping out a hair above 3ft MLLW around
high tide times Wed evening thru Fri evening along the coastline.
This would be below coastal flood thresholds so am not expecting
much in the way of impacts. However, surf along area beaches will
probably pick up - as will the risk of rip currents. Otherwise,
improving marine conditions are expected as we head into the
weekend and surface high pressure becomes established over the
northwest Gulf resulting in lighter winds and lower seas. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 73 87 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 271213
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
713 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Warm but much drier conditions prevail in the immediate term
following the passage of yesterday`s surface cold front. Broad
surface high pressure remains in place over the South Central CONUS
behind the boundary, while light to moderate northeast winds will
provide dry/cold advection over the next several days that will
continue to produce benign weather conditions area-wide. Winds look
to increase slightly on Wednesday, particularly along the coast, as
the entrance of Hurricane Ian into the Eastern Gulf will tighten the
synoptic pressure gradient. With surface dew points continuing to
hold steady in the 40s inland and the 50s closer to the coast,
conditions should remain fairly pleasant. Daytime highs today and
tomorrow should reach around 90, while clear skies overnight will
allow for efficient radiative cooling and lows mainly in the upper
50s/lower 60s as a result.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Mostly clear, dry and comfortable wx will persist into the
weekend with surface & mid level ridging prevailing. As the
eventual remnants of Hurricane Ian push further n/ne up the
eastern parts of the country, we`ll eventually begin to see the
the more dominate northeasterly llvl flow weaken enough to where
we might be able to see the landbreeze/seabreeze circulation take
shape closer to the coast early next week. But even then, we`re
just splitting hairs and talking about a very slight uptick in the
dewpoints across coastal locations. Rain chances should be nil
thru the period. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 711 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the TAF
period. Light to moderate northeast winds will veer slightly to
the east over the course of the day, with some higher gusts
possible during the afternoon. Skies continue to remain clear with
high pressure overhead.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Moderate northeast winds will continue for the next several days.
Seas will be on an upward trend and Small Craft Advisories may be
required at times during the midweek time period. A longer period
east swell associated with Hurricane Ian will begin arriving in
the upper Texas coastal waters late Wednesday...then begin
diminishing late Thursday into Friday. With the northeasterly
component to the winds and elevated seas/swell in place,
anticipate we`ll see water levels running above normal. PETTS
guidance indicates levels topping out a hair above 3ft MLLW around
high tide times Wed evening thru Fri evening along the coastline.
This would be below coastal flood thresholds so am not expecting
much in the way of impacts. However, surf along area beaches will
probably pick up - as will the risk of rip currents. Otherwise,
improving marine conditions are expected as we head into the
weekend and surface high pressure becomes established over the
northwest Gulf resulting in lighter winds and lower seas. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 73 87 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
Florida is about to be in for a real bad time. Geeze.
Re: Ian
Been busy with a lot of interests/family in the Tampa area. I’ve been expecting this to tick east of the forecasts. Strengthening storms with an incoming trough almost always do. SW Florida needs to be ready. Tampa dodges another bullet. Fortunately for them, getting the right angle for a direct hit on Pinellas is extremely difficult/ rare. Too bad for Sarasota down to Marco
Been busy with a lot of interests/family in the Tampa area. I’ve been expecting this to tick east of the forecasts. Strengthening storms with an incoming trough almost always do. SW Florida needs to be ready. Tampa dodges another bullet. Fortunately for them, getting the right angle for a direct hit on Pinellas is extremely difficult/ rare. Too bad for Sarasota down to Marco
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I wouldnt say Tampa is completely out of the woods, still could have some flooding issues as well as tropical storm force winds as the center IAN just passes to the south, worst of the surge should stay well south of tampa though, devastating hit for east florida though
Tampa Bay is shallow. There's going to be an initial storm surge, and it's luck of the draw after that. My wife's sister lives just north of Tampa, so she'll probably see offshore winds, but will be in the dirty quadrant. I expect potentially a LOT of tornados with land friction and the size. Fingers crossed.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:46 pm I wouldnt say Tampa is completely out of the woods, still could have some flooding issues as well as tropical storm force winds as the center IAN just passes to the south, worst of the surge should stay well south of tampa though, devastating hit for east florida though
The current track is indeed closer to Sarasota. Port Charlotte could take the brunt. Again.
Edit: The eye almost looks like it's heading toward Ft. Myers and Port Charlotte. We'll see.
Edit: The eye almost looks like it's heading toward Ft. Myers and Port Charlotte. We'll see.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Unfortunately their are a lot of idiots choosing to ride out IAN in evacuation zones, I honestly don’t think i can feel sorry for those folks, I never understand why some people knowingly put themselves in extreme danger and a high chance of losing their life, cant rule out IAN becoming a Category 5 before landfall, that is unsurvivable
Adrenaline junkies.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:58 pm Unfortunately their are a lot of idiots choosing to ride out IAN in evacuation zones, I honestly don’t think i can feel sorry for those folks, I never understand why some people knowingly put themselves in extreme danger and a high chance of losing their life, cant rule out IAN becoming a Category 5 before landfall, that is unsurvivable
Fort Myers, even Naples under the gun with the current track. Everglades City may see a ridiculous storm surge.
Taking a Charley track, maybe further south? the forecast has missed the track by > 100 miles.
Then Ian will turn more northerly. It could slow and head up the spine of FL.
Northern FL has seen a lot of rain this summer (what else is new?) - the only good news is that the soil is largely sandy loam. It's like a sieve compared with Texas soil!
Taking a Charley track, maybe further south? the forecast has missed the track by > 100 miles.
Then Ian will turn more northerly. It could slow and head up the spine of FL.
Northern FL has seen a lot of rain this summer (what else is new?) - the only good news is that the soil is largely sandy loam. It's like a sieve compared with Texas soil!
That is one big @$$ TS windfield...and it could be sustained for many hours as Ian slows onshore.