September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: September 2022

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:15 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:38 pm
What a tease towards the end of the GFS run.. Big shot of canadian air spills south, highs in the low 70’s, lows in the upper 40’s, too bad thats 360 hours out lol.
#shame
That would be about normal in terms of timing.

Now that Hell season is over, I’m coming out of hibernation!
Team #NeverSummer

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: September 2022

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:20 am

It’s crazy how much colder the Southeast is than Texas this time of year…. Most of the time. And then they are generally wetter.

Headed to Tuscaloosa next weekend and the forecast is 50 to 78. Meanwhile, further West down I-20 at the same latitude, Dallas will have a 10 degree warmer low and 5 degree warmer high.
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JDsGN
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Re: September 2022

Post by JDsGN » Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:53 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:38 pm
What a tease towards the end of the GFS run.. Big shot of canadian air spills south, highs in the low 70’s, lows in the upper 40’s, too bad thats 360 hours out lol.
#shame
This must have gone away on the latest model run? I'm seeing highs on the 15th close to 90 still without any major cold fronts coming through? One can hope we get a good cold front by then but i feel like its always Halloween plus or minus a day weekend before we actually see real chilly temps. My birthday on the 23rd and the week before when I race in Oklahoma ( the 15th) are usually pretty warm still in recent years.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2022

Post by tireman4 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:12 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 300844
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
344 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

GOES Total PW plot shows even drier air (PW`s <0.5") to our east and
northeast set to move into the region today and stick around thru
Sat. This should provide a favorable environment for both effective
warming and cooling with 30+ degree diurnal temp spreads
anticipated. Clear/sunny conditions will prevail with a continued
dry nw flow aloft. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

The extended forecast remains generally on track with generally
benign conditions expected to prevail well into next week as the
synoptic pattern continues to be defined by broad surface high
pressure over the Central CONUS. Light to moderate northeast winds
will persist through early next week and continue to provide a
steady supply of dry air to the area. Total PW values remain in
the 0.5-1.0 in range through Monday, after which an onshore flow
pattern will gradually begin to return as the surface high shifts
to the east. This will result in a gradual warming and moistening
trend through the end of next week, with daily high temperatures
eventually creeping back above seasonal normals as many locations
flirt with the lower 90s by Wednesday. With the loss of dry
advection and eventual resumption of onshore flow, PWs begin to
recover to over 1.0 in by Tuesday and approach 1.25 in by
Wednesday. As a result, dew points also remain on an upward trend,
as values in the 40s on Sunday reach the mid 50s to mid 60s by
Thursday. Despite this, a lack of forcing will keep precipitation
chances very low, with no rainfall in the forecast for the time
being.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

VFR for the next 30+ hours. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Latest marine observations continue to report 15-20kt winds around
Galveston Bay and across the offshore waters in addition to 3-5
ft seas. While conditions will improve over the next few hours,
cautions remain in effect at this time. Light to moderate east to
northeast winds will persist through the duration of the weekend,
with flow transitioning to an onshore regime early next week. No
precipitation is expected over the next seven days.

Cady

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Even drier air will be making its way into the region today from the
ne/e. Afternoon RH`s should bottom out in the 17%-21% range inland
and 27-40% at the beaches today and thru the weekend. Wind speeds
will remain below Red Flag Warning criteria, but fire weather
conditions will be elevated considering the ongoing dry conditions.
The Texas A&M Forest Service continues to have a moderate fire
danger rating for most of Southeast Texas with a high to very high
fire danger rating for the Piney Woods area through Sunday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 55 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 69 82 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM CDT this morning for
TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ335-355-370-375.

&&

$$

Cromagnum
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Re: September 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:48 am

No rain in sight for at least another week

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:09 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:20 am
It’s crazy how much colder the Southeast is than Texas this time of year…. Most of the time. And then they are generally wetter.

Headed to Tuscaloosa next weekend and the forecast is 50 to 78. Meanwhile, further West down I-20 at the same latitude, Dallas will have a 10 degree warmer low and 5 degree warmer high.
That is what has happened for our Falls. They've disappeared here while the early Fall season cold fronts head east.

In this case, Ian's NW quadrant pulls is dragging air in from the upper Midwest.

At least the dewpoint is still low, but probably not so much next week.

Stratton20
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Re: September 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:27 am

Good news is we are done with the mid to upper 90’s , all i see is upper 80’s to around 90-91 with lows in the upper 50’s to low 60’s the next 10 days, not bad at all, fall is coming

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jasons2k
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Re: September 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:25 pm

Temps now are great for me. Glad to be done with the 100-degree heat. Now if we could just get one decent rain to hold us over for awhile. Transportation and evaporation is less this time of year with the sun angle going down and the cooler weather. We don't need too much but something would be nice. My monthly total is 0.69" and that was all on the first or second of the month - nothing since.

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