September 2022

[Stratton20]

Lol ill believe that front when i see it

[Iceresistance]

Lol ill believe that front when i see it

I had one that blew through me this morning! It felt NICE!

[DoctorMu]

Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol

Well, that...and he absolutely hates the cold.

Well, knowing him personally ( like many folks on here), he does hate the cold. He is amenable to if it is snows, but he thinks it is a waste of cold without it. LOL

CLL gets snow nearly every year now.

[Pas_Bon]

Lol ill believe that front when i see it

And just like that, my 10-day forecast in League City went from
Showing highs in the low 80’s back up to near 90 each day . Dang it.

Geaux Tigers

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231049
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Heat will continue to be the area`s weather story for today and Saturday.
Today will probably be the warmest of the two days as mid/upper level
ridging remains in control. With plenty of sunshine, expect afternoon
highs to peak in the upper 90s to around 100 inland and in the low to
mid 90s near/along the coast which are around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal for this time of the year. The ridge begins to break down on
Saturday, and this could allow for some cloud development during the
day which would help to shave a couple degrees off the afternoon highs
(mid to upper 90s inland and closer to the lower 90s near/along the
coast). Similar to yesterday, we should be able to tie or break some
of our record high temperatures for both days (see Climate Section below).
Cannot rule out some very isolated shower/thunderstorm development on
Saturday (mainly in/around the Matagorda Bay area and southward) as
the ridge weakens and an inverted trough edges westward across the
Deep South Texas area. 42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

On Sunday, an upper level trof will settle in over the Great Lakes
Region while an upper level ridge builds over Western CONUS. While
conditions remain relatively dry, peak PWATS around 1.6-1.9" could
allow for a few isolated driven showers and storms to develop along
the coast, particularly near the Matagorda Bay area where. 850mb
temperatures will be around 19-20C, bringing another day of near-
record highs in mid to upper 90s inland and mid to lower 90s along
the coast.

Heading into Monday, the aforementioned upper level trough will
dig in across the Great Lakes/Lower Great Lakes. As it does, a
weak cold front will enter SE Texas, bringing light to moderate
N/NE winds as it pushes south towards the coast. The frontal
passage will be fairly dry, with rain chances still remaining
isolated to the coastline where moisture is highest. High pressure
will build in behind the front as the upper level ridge over the
Western CONUS amplifies. Persistent N/NE winds left in the wake of
the front will allow for cooler, drier, more fall-esq weather to
set in next week, with lows dropping into the 60s inland and lower
70s near the coast.

As for the tropics, we are monitoring Tropical Depression Nine
over the Southeastern Carribean. Low wind shear and SSTs near 30C
over portions of the Carribean should provide favorable conditions
for TD 9 to continue to develop. TD 9 is expected to enter the
Western Carribean next week with the GFS and EURO Ensembles Tracks
hinting at it turning NE towards the NE Gulf/Florida by mid next
week. That being said, much uncertainty still remains with TD 9,
so be sure to review your hurricane preparation plans.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

After any patchy morning fog dissipates, VFR for the rest of the day
and on into the evening hours with light winds in the morning becoming
SE at 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. We`ll go back to light winds
again late tonight through tomorrow morning (maybe some patchy fog
again) and mainly SKC. Look for a repeat tomorrow (VFR with light
winds in the morning becoming SE at 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon).

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Light seabreeze/landbreeze driven winds will prevail through the
rest of the week and into the weekend with seas of 1 to 2 feet. A
weak cold front will arrive on Monday, bringing light to moderate
offshore winds as it pushes off the coast. N/NE winds will continue
in the wake of the front with winds increasing by mid next week as
the pressure gradient tightens. Cautions flags may be needed on
Tuesday for building winds and seas.

03

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Here are the record high temperatures for today through Sunday.

CLL: Today - 101 set in 1893
Sat - 101 set in 1892
Sun - 104 set in 2005

IAH: Today - 96 set in 1993
Sat - 95 set in 2013
Sun - 99 set in 2005

HOU: Today - 96 set in 2005
Sat - 94 set in 2013
Sun - 97 set in 2005

GLS: Today - 93 set in 1998
Sat - 90 set in 2017
Sun - 101 set in 2005

PSX: Today - 98 set in 2005
Sat - 100 set in 2005
Sun - 95 set in 1954

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 72 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 98 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 92 80 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

[redneckweather]

Looking forward to it!

Persistent N/NE winds left in the wake of
the front will allow for cooler, drier, more fall-esq weather to
set in next week.

[Stratton20]

NWS has highs near 90-91 after that frontal passage, not a legit front lol

[Cpv17]

NWS has highs near 90-91 after that frontal passage, not a legit front lol

Yeah but morning lows will be nice and the humidity will be gone. It’ll be a big difference. A lot less sweating.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I hope so! The main story has just been sweltering heat the pst 4-5 months so it would be nice to have a couple of cool, crisp mornings for a change, cannot wait till we are done with the 90’s!

[srainhoutx]

We got a good front yesterday here in the Smoky Mountains and are expecting a stronger front Sunday evening. Our low temperatures are expected to be in the 30's with high temperatures only reaching the low 60's. I suspect you folks will enjoy the lower dewpoints, particularly in the evenings/early mornings.

[tireman4]

AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

No issues for the rest of today/tonight/tomorrow morning with high
pressure remaining large and in charge. Light NE winds (5-7kts) in
place currently will gradually turn to the SE later this afternoon
(7-10kt). Very light and variable winds overnight (0-3kts) will be
transitioning to S/SE winds by tomorrow morning/early afternoon (5
-7kts). Otherwise VFR. 41

[Cpv17]

Very ugly forecast from the CPC today. Above average temps and below average precipitation for the next 3-4 weeks. Trash.

[Stratton20]

Yep, 2022 is a terrible year for weather, facts as well, Texas weather sucks!

[snowman65]

Lets all jut move north!!

[Iceresistance]

This might not be Texas, but it's important because Michigan got down to the 20s this morning, that is one month ahead of the first average freeze.

And parts of Vermont got snow.

[DoctorMu]

We got a good front yesterday here in the Smoky Mountains and are expecting a stronger front Sunday evening. Our low temperatures are expected to be in the 30's with high temperatures only reaching the low 60's. I suspect you folks will enjoy the lower dewpoints, particularly in the evenings/early mornings.

We'll take the lower DPs if it's not going to bother raining. 30s is a bit chilly for late Sept in the Smokies.

[don]

This might not be Texas, but it's important because Michigan got down to the 20s this morning, that is one month ahead of the first average freeze.

And parts of Vermont got snow.

It being cold up there doesn't really correlate to fall or winter weather down here.They can have record breaking cold temps and snow galore up there.But if the trough doesn't dig far enough south all that cold air stay bottled up to the north,while we scorch down here at the same time.Which we have seen happen several times the last few winters.

[Stratton20]

Knowing our luck i bet this winter is going to be warm lol

[davidiowx]

This might not be Texas, but it's important because Michigan got down to the 20s this morning, that is one month ahead of the first average freeze.

And parts of Vermont got snow.

It being cold up there doesn't really correlate to fall or winter weather down here.They can have record breaking cold temps and snow galore up there.But if the trough doesn't dig far enough south all that cold air stay bottled up to the north,while we scorch down here at the same time.Which we have seen happen several times the last few winters.

Yep! About the only time it really matters is when the front makes it offshore and cold air is running over ice/snow pack in the plains. It which enhances cold air advection further south where the grounds are well above freezing. Typically when there’s a tiny window for some frozen precip down here that can help a little if the dry air doesn’t take over first.

[don]

This might not be Texas, but it's important because Michigan got down to the 20s this morning, that is one month ahead of the first average freeze.

And parts of Vermont got snow.

It being cold up there doesn't really correlate to fall or winter weather down here.They can have record breaking cold temps and snow galore up there.But if the trough doesn't dig far enough south all that cold air stay bottled up to the north,while we scorch down here at the same time.Which we have seen happen several times the last few winters.

Yep! About the only time it really matters is when the front makes it offshore and cold air is running over ice/snow pack in the plains. It which enhances cold air advection further south where the grounds are well above freezing. Typically when there’s a tiny window for some frozen precip down here that can help a little if the dry air doesn’t take over first.

Yep I agree!