September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Re: September 2022

Post by jasons2k » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:10 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:26 pm
I wonder if Hurricane Ian will be upgraded to Category 5.
I think it was at 8am

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tireman4
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Re: September 2022

Post by tireman4 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:20 am

Back home...

FXUS64 KHGX 291131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Little change to the prevailing synoptic pattern is expected in the
immediate term, with today`s forecast package once again taking the
side of persistence. Broad surface high pressure over the Central
CONUS and the presence of the now inland Hurricane Ian to our east
continue to maintain an offshore flow regime, allowing for warm and
dry conditions to prevail. Clear overnight conditions thus far this
week have created ideal conditions for nocturnal radiative cooling,
the extent of which has been underestimated by guidance over the
past few days. Given this, have mainly leaned on bias corrected
guidance in this morning`s package given that the overall pattern
has undergone little change. This has produced low temperature
values near the bottom of the national blend distribution for the
next few days (50s to low 60s, potential for upper 40s in the
northern zones), along with high temperatures in the upper 80s to
lower 90s across most of the area.

Continued northerly winds with the northward propagation of
Hurricane Ian will allow dry air to filter into the area, keeping
dew points in the lower 40s for most locations and near 50 along the
coast. Wind speeds should max out at around 10 mph during the
afternoon (higher along the coast), with a few occasional gusts
possible. PoP forecast remains at zero area-wide.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Mainly a fcst of persistence. Mid-upper ridging across the
western Gulf into Tx and a prevailing ne llvl flow will keep PW`s
<1.1" and dry conditions in place. Will probably see a 25-30 degree
diurnal temp spread continue well into midweek.

Pressure gradient should relax later in the weekend and into next
week allowing for a landbreeze/seabreeze circulation to set up
along the coast with corresponding subtle dewpoint fluctuations.
Models are showing some mid level pattern differences in the
early-midweek time period...but even so, it probably won`t change
sensible wx conditions locally. Challenge would be to see if we
see some mid-upper Pacific cloud cover stream overhead or not. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the TAF
period, with E/ENE winds shifting further to the NE this
afternoon. Wind speeds could exceed 10 knots inland, with higher
gusts of up to 20 knots at times. Skies remain clear with no
cloud cover anticipated.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Moderate northeast winds will continue into Friday then begin
diminishing. A longer period east swell associated with Ian is
currently moving through the upper Texas coastal waters. Wave
heights are peaking now in the 5-8ft/9-11s range and should be on
a slow downward trend later today into Friday. Will maintain the
SCA configuration offshore into the afternoon and will also throw
in some SCEC flags for Galveston Bay and the nearshore waters
this morning. Beach Hazard Statement will continue until about
sunset...primarily for rip currents, longshore currents and surf.
Threat of coastal flooding is low considering we`re headed into
low tide for much of the day. Remnant swell in place this evening
may drive some wave run up further up the beach than normal at
this evenings high tide...but overall coastal flood threat still
looks low. High tides will continue to peak at 3.0-3.3` for
several days, but with diminishing wave action & hence little in
the way of impacts. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist over the
next several days. Minimum RH values will drop into the high teens
to low 20s across most of the area during the afternoon hours, and
fuels continue to dry with the recent lack of precipitation. While
light to moderate wind speeds will mitigate conditions somewhat,
extra caution should be exercised when burning during this time.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 69 82 71 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ335-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ350.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.

&&

$$

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Re: September 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:25 am

Seeing reports that a portion of the causeway to Sanibel Island was destroyed. Storm surge washed it away. So those folks are cut off from road access for quite a while.

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Re: September 2022

Post by davidiowx » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:33 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:25 am
Seeing reports that a portion of the causeway to Sanibel Island was destroyed. Storm surge washed it away. So those folks are cut off from road access for quite a while.
https://twitter.com/BN9/status/15754524 ... AkDE4n9ziw

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djmike
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Re: September 2022

Post by djmike » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:56 am

Wow so Ian will become another hurricane and hit the east coast. Unbelievable. Winds already increased to 70mph.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

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tireman4
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Re: September 2022

Post by tireman4 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:35 pm

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

With clear skies prevailing, TAFs today are a wind forecast once
again. Another 30-40kt low-level jet streak is passing by Southeast
TX again today, so wind gusts around 15-20 knots will be possible
through ~21Z. Easterly winds will shift over to northeasterly by
the late afternoon hours. Overnight, winds will become light and
variable. On Friday morning, expect winds to pick up out of the
northeast around 10 knots.

Batiste

Stratton20
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Re: September 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:38 pm

I unfortunately don’t think IAN will be the last threat to the Gulf coast, October at least through the first 10-14 days could be active in the tropics

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Re: September 2022

Post by TexasBreeze » Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:54 pm

Ian is a hurricane again and is unfortunately not done causing havoc just yet. What a horrible storm even though it is a "half-cane" hybrid.

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jasons2k
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Re: September 2022

Post by jasons2k » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:31 pm

Thankfully, all my friends and family down in Florida are OK. Further south, it was horrible. Keep them in your prayers.

Stratton20
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Re: September 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:38 pm

What a tease towards the end of the GFS run.. Big shot of canadian air spills south, highs in the low 70’s, lows in the upper 40’s, too bad thats 360 hours out lol.
#shame

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