September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
redneckweather
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tireman4 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:15 am From Wxman 57 on S2K...

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.
Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol
Cromagnum
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redneckweather wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:41 am
tireman4 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:15 am From Wxman 57 on S2K...

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.
Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol
Well, that...and he absolutely hates the cold.
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tireman4
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:20 am
redneckweather wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:41 am
tireman4 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:15 am From Wxman 57 on S2K...

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.
Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol
Well, that...and he absolutely hates the cold.

Well, knowing him personally ( like many folks on here), he does hate the cold. He is amenable to if it is snows, but he thinks it is a waste of cold without it. LOL
walsean1
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I though I would share this that was posted on twitter.

https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1572 ... ayt1LfBk5Q
walsean1
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walsean1 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:28 am I though I would share this that was posted on twitter.

https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1572 ... ayt1LfBk5Q
It is for Invest 98L
walsean1
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I don’t know how viable these guys are but I just wanted to share these other items about Invest 98L. He is talking about ridging building in which has me somewhat concerned especially since to storm has formed yet.

https://twitter.com/craigsetzer/status/ ... 75u_CgwAYA
Cromagnum
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Looks like the storm off the coast of Africa might snipe Hermine, leaving 98L to become Ian.
Stratton20
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Either the GFS is seeing something that the other models are not or its going to be one of the biggest L’s the GFSZ has taken this season, the. to be fair none of the global models have been good this season
walsean1
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The main item is if the storm takes some time to form due to Wind shear, proximity to land , then the models are forecasting something that has yet to form
Cromagnum
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walsean1 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:35 am The main item is if the storm takes some time to form due to Wind shear, proximity to land , then the models are forecasting something that has yet to form
This is the key point right now. You can't initialize anything well until there is a center fix.
Stratton20
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GFS is already correcting east, not our problem, now back to more miserable heat until this so called fall” front comes”
walsean1
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:28 am GFS is already correcting east, not our problem, now back to more miserable heat until this so called fall” front comes”
Currently there is no storm so the models are forecasting something that hasn’t formed regardless of them shifting it W or E
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don
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To repeat what i said yesterday, the trough on the east coast is too deep for 98L to come this way.Something homebrew would have to develop for us to see any risk of a TC for the rest of the season.And that's not likely to happen. ;)
While i cant say we're out of the woods yet. The chances of a landfall are very low here.Not really just because of climatology,but more so because of the persistent trough/weakness that's been over the east coast/SE this summer.Now if the season would have been active last month when we had a weakness siting over us that would have been a different story.But that weakness has now been replaced by a ridge.And the westerly's look to be in play as a weak front moves through next week.It will be hard to get a storm here for the rest of the season. The only exception to that would be a homebrew system that develops offshore from a front.
Stratton20
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Anyone else want to cancel their subscription to mother nature?🤬🤬🤬🤣🤣
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Cpv17
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Next hurricane season could be dealing with an El Niño so next season could be quiet too. Although this season is a La Niña and it’s been strangely quiet till just recently. This could end up being a backloaded season which is great news for Texas. I’m just ready for some more rain and unfortunately don’t see any hope for it the next couple weeks at least. Grass is withering up once again.
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tireman4
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AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

VFR conditions will prevail. High pressure overhead will keep
rain chances near zero through the forecast. Patchy fog possible
again tonight and through the early morning hours on Friday for
our southwestern sites (LBX, PSX, SGR, etc.), but should not be as
widespread as we saw this morning.
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tireman4
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From Wxman 57 on S2K

I still don't think that the shear will drop off enough for consolidation until Saturday. Lots of questions regarding potential intensity when it enters the Gulf. The Gulf hasn't been that favorable for development all summer. Models, particularly the Euro, indicate shear and dry air could be an issue in the Gulf. For now, if I lived anywhere in Florida, I'd make sure I have supplies to sustain my family for a week. Focus may be more on the peninsula than the panhandle. If you wait until the NHC issues a forecast, then it's too late. All supplies will be gone.
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tireman4
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From Wxman 57 on S2K

Busy finishing up 7-day track on 98L. If I were you, I'd be ready for a hurricane strike Tuesday ( He is talking about Florida). I think the Euro may have the right idea. It may be a little TOO far south, but I think a sharper turn is coming past Cuba. GFS continues on crack, ignoring wind flow across the Gulf. Don't trust it. Time to send advisory out. One more check of new TVCN. Note that the TVCN (consensus) is too far west due to GFS members being out to lunch (most likely).
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DoctorMu
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walsean1 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:33 am
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:28 am GFS is already correcting east, not our problem, now back to more miserable heat until this so called fall” front comes”
Currently there is no storm so the models are forecasting something that hasn’t formed regardless of them shifting it W or E
Correct. Guessing on fantasy range projected ridge location.

Having said that I think Florida is most likely. I'm OK with that. That would keep Hermine away from O&G refineries, which if damaged would spike more inflation. That's also far enough away not to make our late, late summer heat more intense.
redneckweather
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Yep, she gone and looking forward to a taste of the 'changing of the seasons' to start off next week!


Otherwise, a cold front is still slated for Mon. Rain chances will
likely remain quite limited with FROPA as moisture return is going
to be quite limited. Progs of slightly more elevated PWs appear to
be better to our SW. Look for significantly lower dewpoints behind
the front and more fall-like overnight low temperatures (50 to 60s
inland and 60s coast) Mon night into middle of next week.
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