September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Said it last night and I'll repeat - total disaster is unfolding for the Cape Coral area. I hope people got out.
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jasons2k
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The SW eyewall being stronger reminds me of Ike and how the upper dynamics enhanced that side.
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DoctorMu
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tireman4 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:59 am From Wxman 57 on S2K..

Note that the NHC's 12-16 ft surge into Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers is for the BEACH. Surge up the Caloosahatchee river into Ft. Myers could be 20-24 ft. See the NHC's inundation graphic for the region. MANY areas under 9+ ft of water this afternoon. Far as I can tell, this will be the worst hurricane ever to strike the area. Charley in 2004 was strong, but tiny compared to Ian. Ian will be retired.
Port Charlotte is going to be crushed. PC and Englewood could be in the eyewall for hours. :shock:

I hope everyone GTFO.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:36 am The SW eyewall being stronger reminds me of Ike and how the upper dynamics enhanced that side.
The backside of Harvey was bad coming into Rockport, too.

Bolvar Pen. wasn't prepared for that backside washover with Ike. Unfortunately, quite a few tried to ride it out.

UTMB was flooded by the backside surge. The seawall held on the Gulf side.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:32 am Said it last night and I'll repeat - total disaster is unfolding for the Cape Coral area. I hope people got out.
Yeah, Cape Coral is going to see the onshore side of the eyewall. There are winds at 10K of 170+ mph on both the NW and SE sides of the eyewall now. There is no escape.

Oh, partly because of the southern path, but Ian has been virtually immune to the shear winds.

Even if slow moving over land, Ian could pack a punch for a long, long time.
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DoctorMu
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Ft. Myers Beach is going to be 9 feet underwater.
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DoctorMu
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Sanibel Island has to be underwater now. Getting crushed.

Venice is in the crosshairs of that northern eyewall.
Stratton20
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That wind shear did absolutely nothing, and now their is video footage of people swimming in the storm surge, natural selection at its finest!
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:42 pm That wind shear did absolutely nothing, and now their is video footage of people swimming in the storm surge, natural selection at its finest!
or now Mike Seidel walking near exposed glass in 155 mph winds in Ft. Myers...jeez.

Everything is a projectile. smh
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djmike
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Sanibel Island had got to be wiped off the map by now. The island is currently 90% underwater not even really an island anymore currently. Unfortunately I think many like Sanibel and other areas will look like Bolivar after hurricane Ike. Hope folks heeded warning and left. Prayers for FL. We know all too well what they are going through.
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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DoctorMu
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14 ft storm surge reported in Ft. Myers
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tireman4
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I have a bad feeling about this. It is going ever so slowly and bringing wind, rain and surge on top of that.
From the recon flight earlier today..

When I say this was the roughest flight of my career so far, I mean it. I have never seen the bunks come out like that. There was coffee everywhere. I have never felt such lateral motion. Aboard Kermit (#NOAA42) this morning into Hurricane #Ian. Please stay safe out there. https://t.co/DQwqBwAE6v pic.twitter.com/gvV7WUJ6aS
-- Tropical Nick Underwood (@TheAstroNick) September 28, 2022
Cromagnum
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Once the backside of the eyewall starts coming in its really going to tear things up.
Stratton20
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Its going to get even worse, strongest winds are on the western side of the eye wall…… Has yet to pass over
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DoctorMu
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:39 am
tireman4 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:59 am From Wxman 57 on S2K..

Note that the NHC's 12-16 ft surge into Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers is for the BEACH. Surge up the Caloosahatchee river into Ft. Myers could be 20-24 ft. See the NHC's inundation graphic for the region. MANY areas under 9+ ft of water this afternoon. Far as I can tell, this will be the worst hurricane ever to strike the area. Charley in 2004 was strong, but tiny compared to Ian. Ian will be retired.
Port Charlotte is going to be crushed. PC and Englewood could be in the eyewall for hours. :shock:

I hope everyone GTFO.
We have landfall now.

Houses will be covered and lifted away by the water. Ft. Myers, Sanibel, other barrier islands.
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tireman4
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Hurricane #Ian makes landfall with 150 mph winds at Cayo Costa, Florida, the exact spot Category 4 Charley made landfall in 2004, also with 150 mph. About where the comparisons end. Ian with an enormous footprint of water that's only just begun. pic.twitter.com/ACn5CKaaW9
-- Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 28, 2022
Cpv17
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Enjoy this lower humidity and cool mornings while it lasts. Looks like a torch is coming after this.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 maybe some low 90’s, but we are done with the extreme stuff, the NHC has around 90 degrees as our hottest temperature here over the next 10 days with lows in the 60’s, second summer is over and a slow transition to fall is beginning
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Mainly a wind forecast as dry air continues to prevail. Easterly
winds this morning will gradually shift over to northeasterly by
the afternoon. Additionally, wind gusts up to 15-20 knots are
possible through the afternoon hours as a low-level jet streak
passes near the region. Winds become light and variable overnight
again and becomes northeasterly again around 10 knots on Thursday
morning.

Batiste
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:49 pm Cpv17 maybe some low 90’s, but we are done with the extreme stuff, the NHC has around 90 degrees as our hottest temperature here over the next 10 days with lows in the 60’s, second summer is over and a slow transition to fall is beginning
Image

I have a feeling this might last into December.
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