September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
redneckweather
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Re: September 2022

Post by redneckweather » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:41 am

tireman4 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:15 am
From Wxman 57 on S2K...

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.
Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol

Cromagnum
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Re: September 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:20 am

redneckweather wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:41 am
tireman4 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:15 am
From Wxman 57 on S2K...

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.
Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol
Well, that...and he absolutely hates the cold.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2022

Post by tireman4 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:22 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:20 am
redneckweather wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:41 am
tireman4 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:15 am
From Wxman 57 on S2K...

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.
Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol
Well, that...and he absolutely hates the cold.

Well, knowing him personally ( like many folks on here), he does hate the cold. He is amenable to if it is snows, but he thinks it is a waste of cold without it. LOL

walsean1
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Re: September 2022

Post by walsean1 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:28 am

I though I would share this that was posted on twitter.

https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1572 ... ayt1LfBk5Q

walsean1
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Re: September 2022

Post by walsean1 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:38 am

walsean1 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:28 am
I though I would share this that was posted on twitter.

https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1572 ... ayt1LfBk5Q
It is for Invest 98L

walsean1
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Re: September 2022

Post by walsean1 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:43 am

I don’t know how viable these guys are but I just wanted to share these other items about Invest 98L. He is talking about ridging building in which has me somewhat concerned especially since to storm has formed yet.

https://twitter.com/craigsetzer/status/ ... 75u_CgwAYA

Cromagnum
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Re: September 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:58 am

Looks like the storm off the coast of Africa might snipe Hermine, leaving 98L to become Ian.

Stratton20
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Re: September 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:25 am

Either the GFS is seeing something that the other models are not or its going to be one of the biggest L’s the GFSZ has taken this season, the. to be fair none of the global models have been good this season

walsean1
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Re: September 2022

Post by walsean1 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:35 am

The main item is if the storm takes some time to form due to Wind shear, proximity to land , then the models are forecasting something that has yet to form

Cromagnum
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Re: September 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:08 am

walsean1 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:35 am
The main item is if the storm takes some time to form due to Wind shear, proximity to land , then the models are forecasting something that has yet to form
This is the key point right now. You can't initialize anything well until there is a center fix.

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