September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: September 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:28 am

GFS is already correcting east, not our problem, now back to more miserable heat until this so called fall” front comes”

walsean1
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Re: September 2022

Post by walsean1 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:33 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:28 am
GFS is already correcting east, not our problem, now back to more miserable heat until this so called fall” front comes”
Currently there is no storm so the models are forecasting something that hasn’t formed regardless of them shifting it W or E

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don
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Re: September 2022

Post by don » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:48 am

To repeat what i said yesterday, the trough on the east coast is too deep for 98L to come this way.Something homebrew would have to develop for us to see any risk of a TC for the rest of the season.And that's not likely to happen. ;)
While i cant say we're out of the woods yet. The chances of a landfall are very low here.Not really just because of climatology,but more so because of the persistent trough/weakness that's been over the east coast/SE this summer.Now if the season would have been active last month when we had a weakness siting over us that would have been a different story.But that weakness has now been replaced by a ridge.And the westerly's look to be in play as a weak front moves through next week.It will be hard to get a storm here for the rest of the season. The only exception to that would be a homebrew system that develops offshore from a front.

Stratton20
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Re: September 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:16 am

Anyone else want to cancel their subscription to mother nature?🤬🤬🤬🤣🤣
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Cpv17
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Re: September 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:37 am

Next hurricane season could be dealing with an El Niño so next season could be quiet too. Although this season is a La Niña and it’s been strangely quiet till just recently. This could end up being a backloaded season which is great news for Texas. I’m just ready for some more rain and unfortunately don’t see any hope for it the next couple weeks at least. Grass is withering up once again.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2022

Post by tireman4 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:19 pm

AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

VFR conditions will prevail. High pressure overhead will keep
rain chances near zero through the forecast. Patchy fog possible
again tonight and through the early morning hours on Friday for
our southwestern sites (LBX, PSX, SGR, etc.), but should not be as
widespread as we saw this morning.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2022

Post by tireman4 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:00 pm

From Wxman 57 on S2K

I still don't think that the shear will drop off enough for consolidation until Saturday. Lots of questions regarding potential intensity when it enters the Gulf. The Gulf hasn't been that favorable for development all summer. Models, particularly the Euro, indicate shear and dry air could be an issue in the Gulf. For now, if I lived anywhere in Florida, I'd make sure I have supplies to sustain my family for a week. Focus may be more on the peninsula than the panhandle. If you wait until the NHC issues a forecast, then it's too late. All supplies will be gone.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2022

Post by tireman4 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:36 pm

From Wxman 57 on S2K

Busy finishing up 7-day track on 98L. If I were you, I'd be ready for a hurricane strike Tuesday ( He is talking about Florida). I think the Euro may have the right idea. It may be a little TOO far south, but I think a sharper turn is coming past Cuba. GFS continues on crack, ignoring wind flow across the Gulf. Don't trust it. Time to send advisory out. One more check of new TVCN. Note that the TVCN (consensus) is too far west due to GFS members being out to lunch (most likely).

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:46 pm

walsean1 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:33 am
Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:28 am
GFS is already correcting east, not our problem, now back to more miserable heat until this so called fall” front comes”
Currently there is no storm so the models are forecasting something that hasn’t formed regardless of them shifting it W or E
Correct. Guessing on fantasy range projected ridge location.

Having said that I think Florida is most likely. I'm OK with that. That would keep Hermine away from O&G refineries, which if damaged would spike more inflation. That's also far enough away not to make our late, late summer heat more intense.

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Re: September 2022

Post by redneckweather » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:38 pm

Yep, she gone and looking forward to a taste of the 'changing of the seasons' to start off next week!


Otherwise, a cold front is still slated for Mon. Rain chances will
likely remain quite limited with FROPA as moisture return is going
to be quite limited. Progs of slightly more elevated PWs appear to
be better to our SW. Look for significantly lower dewpoints behind
the front and more fall-like overnight low temperatures (50 to 60s
inland and 60s coast) Mon night into middle of next week.

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