September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Nearly the end of September and I'm running the sprinkler around the yard to keep it from dieing. This sucks just about as bad as this Aggie football team.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Cromagnum wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:42 pm Nearly the end of September and I'm running the sprinkler around the yard to keep it from dieing. This sucks just about as bad as this Aggie football team.
Better to be lucky than good, sometimes! :lol:

Needs some luck on this weather.

At least the lower DPs beginning Monday will make it feel better.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Looks like Ian is going to weaken substantially as it approaches Florida. Maybe an EWRC? Weird to see a storm forecast to weaken that much in the Gulf in late September.
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

So ready for a change. Sweat my *** off mowing the yard today. Everything is dieing from heat stress. Here is hoping La Nina never returns.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Cromagnum wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:27 pm So ready for a change. Sweat my *** off mowing the yard today. Everything is dieing from heat stress. Here is hoping La Nina never returns.
La Niña is supposed to strengthen over the next couple months. I honestly don’t see us getting any rain till the spring.
davidiowx
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:23 pm Looks like Ian is going to weaken substantially as it approaches Florida. Maybe an EWRC? Weird to see a storm forecast to weaken that much in the Gulf in late September.
Strong shear will do that.

Fortunately for us (well kinda - would love some rain), we are about to enjoy a week of no humidity and wonder fall mornings. It will warm up during the day with the sun beating down, but won’t be miserable with the humidity/dew points.

No rain in sight, so keep those sprinklers/hoses ready.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Latest surface observations at the time of forecast (3 AM CDT)
indicate the continued progression of a weak surface cold front
through SE TX, roughly extending along a Caldwell-Crockett-Lufkin
line. The passage of this boundary over the course of the day
today will be the major weather story in the immediate term,
bringing a noticeable influx of dry air to the region that should
persist throughout the duration of the work week. Latest short-
term guidance shows a steady drop in surface dew point values
behind the advancing front as N/NE winds develop in its wake,
with inland locations seeing values in the 40s and coastal
locations in the 50s by tonight. This represents a drop of around
20 degF compared to Sunday, and will certainly be apparent to
anyone with outdoor plans in the coming days. Clear skies and CAA
will furthermore produce more pleasant overnight lows, with inland
locations reaching the upper 50s/60s and coastal locations around
70. A few isolated showers and storms are possible along the
coast later today, particularly in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay,
but otherwise precipitation chances along the boundary remain low.

Tuesday will again be characterized by dry conditions, as north
winds persist behind today`s frontal passage. Daytime highs may
struggle to eclipse 90 degrees, while continued low dew point
values in the 40s will allow for a fairly pleasant and benign
weather day across the area. Overnight lows will once again dip
mainly into the upper 50s/60s.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Dry weather along with cool night (lows in the 50s/60s) and warm
days (highs mainly in the mid 80s to low 90s) can be expected
throughout the long term period. In the wake of today`s weak cold
front, high pressure will be ridging into the state, and this
feature in combination with Hurricane Ian in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico will bring a dry northeast wind flow through the end of the
week and the start of the weekend. A more light and variable wind
pattern sets up for the Saturday afternoon through Monday night time
period.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the duration of the
TAF period. An advancing cold front will shift winds to the
northeast today across the area, with wind speeds reaching around
10 knots during the afternoon. Winds become light and variable
overnight, with little to no cloud cover expected. Light to moderate
northeast winds develop once again tomorrow.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

A weak cold front will push offshore today and will bring gradually
increasing north to northeast winds to the area. A tightening
pressure gradient between high pressure over the state and Hurricane
Ian in the eastern Gulf will bring increasing northeast winds,
increasing seas/swells and an increasing risk of rip currents to the
area mainly in a Tuesday through Friday time period. Caution and or
advisory flags will be needed. Mariners should keep up with the
latest forecasts on Ian being issued by the National Hurricane
Center.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 63 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 76 85 73 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Bring it! Ready for this front. Been working a 7/12 turnaround at work so this front will be very welcoming.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

What is Ian expected to be at landfall? Cat 2? 3?
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

From Wxman 57 on S2K


One critical thing I notice is that timing will be critical for the Tampa Bay area. There may be a brief period on Thursday when Ian's forward speed slows to 4-5 mph. That occurs as Ian is about 30 miles offshore. If Ian moves more quickly, then it may move farther east, with landfall shifting just south of Tampa before the stall or slow-down. That's what the ICON is indicating. Those of you in Tampa want Ian to move more slowly so that it is blocked offshore and not allowed to move inland south of Tampa.

Checking recon, the plane found no hurricane force wind in the NW or SE quadrants.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

His projection on landfall..

Looking further into the 6Z Euro, it moves Ian slower, allowing it to be blocked by building high pressure to the north on Thursday. That's the little wiggle in the track you see west of Tampa on the ensembles below. Once the high moves east, Ian continues north toward the panhandle, where it would encounter increasing wind shear and very dry air. That could cause Ian to weaken to a TS before it moved inland up in the panhandle. Would be quite good for those of you on the FL peninsula if this happens. Only one run, though. Ian's forward speed next 48 hrs will be key.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

With the initial wind shift/pre-frontal trough now located off the
coast, the cooler/drier air mass (currently over the northern half
of the CWA) is now making its way south as well. N/NE winds (10-12
kts) with gusts (15-24 kts) will prevail this afternoon behind the
main cold front. Winds should decrease by this evening through to-
night (4-7 kts) before picking up a bit again tomorrow morning (7-
11 kts). Otherwise VFR. 41

&&
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

SOI continues to rise..terrible.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

I suspect this board will be quiet as a mouse for the next couple of weeks, with no rain in sight…….
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Well, I am here
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

tireman4 wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:17 pm Well, I am here
You’re a mod. You kinda have to be lol
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Feels great outside right now compared to how it's been.
redneckweather
Posts: 1022
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Low's in the 60's and then lows in the 50's later on this week and into the weekend. Nice legit front to kick off the fall season!
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Dont get too excited, enjoy a few days of fall before Second Summer returns
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271213
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
713 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Warm but much drier conditions prevail in the immediate term
following the passage of yesterday`s surface cold front. Broad
surface high pressure remains in place over the South Central CONUS
behind the boundary, while light to moderate northeast winds will
provide dry/cold advection over the next several days that will
continue to produce benign weather conditions area-wide. Winds look
to increase slightly on Wednesday, particularly along the coast, as
the entrance of Hurricane Ian into the Eastern Gulf will tighten the
synoptic pressure gradient. With surface dew points continuing to
hold steady in the 40s inland and the 50s closer to the coast,
conditions should remain fairly pleasant. Daytime highs today and
tomorrow should reach around 90, while clear skies overnight will
allow for efficient radiative cooling and lows mainly in the upper
50s/lower 60s as a result.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Mostly clear, dry and comfortable wx will persist into the
weekend with surface & mid level ridging prevailing. As the
eventual remnants of Hurricane Ian push further n/ne up the
eastern parts of the country, we`ll eventually begin to see the
the more dominate northeasterly llvl flow weaken enough to where
we might be able to see the landbreeze/seabreeze circulation take
shape closer to the coast early next week. But even then, we`re
just splitting hairs and talking about a very slight uptick in the
dewpoints across coastal locations. Rain chances should be nil
thru the period. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 711 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the TAF
period. Light to moderate northeast winds will veer slightly to
the east over the course of the day, with some higher gusts
possible during the afternoon. Skies continue to remain clear with
high pressure overhead.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Moderate northeast winds will continue for the next several days.
Seas will be on an upward trend and Small Craft Advisories may be
required at times during the midweek time period. A longer period
east swell associated with Hurricane Ian will begin arriving in
the upper Texas coastal waters late Wednesday...then begin
diminishing late Thursday into Friday. With the northeasterly
component to the winds and elevated seas/swell in place,
anticipate we`ll see water levels running above normal. PETTS
guidance indicates levels topping out a hair above 3ft MLLW around
high tide times Wed evening thru Fri evening along the coastline.
This would be below coastal flood thresholds so am not expecting
much in the way of impacts. However, surf along area beaches will
probably pick up - as will the risk of rip currents. Otherwise,
improving marine conditions are expected as we head into the
weekend and surface high pressure becomes established over the
northwest Gulf resulting in lighter winds and lower seas. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 73 87 71 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 64 guests