September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Ptarmigan wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:26 pm I wonder if Hurricane Ian will be upgraded to Category 5.
I think it was at 8am
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tireman4
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Back home...

FXUS64 KHGX 291131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Little change to the prevailing synoptic pattern is expected in the
immediate term, with today`s forecast package once again taking the
side of persistence. Broad surface high pressure over the Central
CONUS and the presence of the now inland Hurricane Ian to our east
continue to maintain an offshore flow regime, allowing for warm and
dry conditions to prevail. Clear overnight conditions thus far this
week have created ideal conditions for nocturnal radiative cooling,
the extent of which has been underestimated by guidance over the
past few days. Given this, have mainly leaned on bias corrected
guidance in this morning`s package given that the overall pattern
has undergone little change. This has produced low temperature
values near the bottom of the national blend distribution for the
next few days (50s to low 60s, potential for upper 40s in the
northern zones), along with high temperatures in the upper 80s to
lower 90s across most of the area.

Continued northerly winds with the northward propagation of
Hurricane Ian will allow dry air to filter into the area, keeping
dew points in the lower 40s for most locations and near 50 along the
coast. Wind speeds should max out at around 10 mph during the
afternoon (higher along the coast), with a few occasional gusts
possible. PoP forecast remains at zero area-wide.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Mainly a fcst of persistence. Mid-upper ridging across the
western Gulf into Tx and a prevailing ne llvl flow will keep PW`s
<1.1" and dry conditions in place. Will probably see a 25-30 degree
diurnal temp spread continue well into midweek.

Pressure gradient should relax later in the weekend and into next
week allowing for a landbreeze/seabreeze circulation to set up
along the coast with corresponding subtle dewpoint fluctuations.
Models are showing some mid level pattern differences in the
early-midweek time period...but even so, it probably won`t change
sensible wx conditions locally. Challenge would be to see if we
see some mid-upper Pacific cloud cover stream overhead or not. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the TAF
period, with E/ENE winds shifting further to the NE this
afternoon. Wind speeds could exceed 10 knots inland, with higher
gusts of up to 20 knots at times. Skies remain clear with no
cloud cover anticipated.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Moderate northeast winds will continue into Friday then begin
diminishing. A longer period east swell associated with Ian is
currently moving through the upper Texas coastal waters. Wave
heights are peaking now in the 5-8ft/9-11s range and should be on
a slow downward trend later today into Friday. Will maintain the
SCA configuration offshore into the afternoon and will also throw
in some SCEC flags for Galveston Bay and the nearshore waters
this morning. Beach Hazard Statement will continue until about
sunset...primarily for rip currents, longshore currents and surf.
Threat of coastal flooding is low considering we`re headed into
low tide for much of the day. Remnant swell in place this evening
may drive some wave run up further up the beach than normal at
this evenings high tide...but overall coastal flood threat still
looks low. High tides will continue to peak at 3.0-3.3` for
several days, but with diminishing wave action & hence little in
the way of impacts. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist over the
next several days. Minimum RH values will drop into the high teens
to low 20s across most of the area during the afternoon hours, and
fuels continue to dry with the recent lack of precipitation. While
light to moderate wind speeds will mitigate conditions somewhat,
extra caution should be exercised when burning during this time.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 69 82 71 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ335-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ350.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.

&&

$$
Cromagnum
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Seeing reports that a portion of the causeway to Sanibel Island was destroyed. Storm surge washed it away. So those folks are cut off from road access for quite a while.
davidiowx
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:25 am Seeing reports that a portion of the causeway to Sanibel Island was destroyed. Storm surge washed it away. So those folks are cut off from road access for quite a while.
https://twitter.com/BN9/status/15754524 ... AkDE4n9ziw
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djmike
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Wow so Ian will become another hurricane and hit the east coast. Unbelievable. Winds already increased to 70mph.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

With clear skies prevailing, TAFs today are a wind forecast once
again. Another 30-40kt low-level jet streak is passing by Southeast
TX again today, so wind gusts around 15-20 knots will be possible
through ~21Z. Easterly winds will shift over to northeasterly by
the late afternoon hours. Overnight, winds will become light and
variable. On Friday morning, expect winds to pick up out of the
northeast around 10 knots.

Batiste
Stratton20
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I unfortunately don’t think IAN will be the last threat to the Gulf coast, October at least through the first 10-14 days could be active in the tropics
TexasBreeze
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Ian is a hurricane again and is unfortunately not done causing havoc just yet. What a horrible storm even though it is a "half-cane" hybrid.
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jasons2k
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Thankfully, all my friends and family down in Florida are OK. Further south, it was horrible. Keep them in your prayers.
Stratton20
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What a tease towards the end of the GFS run.. Big shot of canadian air spills south, highs in the low 70’s, lows in the upper 40’s, too bad thats 360 hours out lol.
#shame
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:38 am What a tease towards the end of the GFS run.. Big shot of canadian air spills south, highs in the low 70’s, lows in the upper 40’s, too bad thats 360 hours out lol.
#shame
That would be about normal in terms of timing.

Now that Hell season is over, I’m coming out of hibernation!
Team #NeverSummer
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MontgomeryCoWx
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It’s crazy how much colder the Southeast is than Texas this time of year…. Most of the time. And then they are generally wetter.

Headed to Tuscaloosa next weekend and the forecast is 50 to 78. Meanwhile, further West down I-20 at the same latitude, Dallas will have a 10 degree warmer low and 5 degree warmer high.
Team #NeverSummer
JDsGN
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:38 am What a tease towards the end of the GFS run.. Big shot of canadian air spills south, highs in the low 70’s, lows in the upper 40’s, too bad thats 360 hours out lol.
#shame
This must have gone away on the latest model run? I'm seeing highs on the 15th close to 90 still without any major cold fronts coming through? One can hope we get a good cold front by then but i feel like its always Halloween plus or minus a day weekend before we actually see real chilly temps. My birthday on the 23rd and the week before when I race in Oklahoma ( the 15th) are usually pretty warm still in recent years.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 300844
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
344 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

GOES Total PW plot shows even drier air (PW`s <0.5") to our east and
northeast set to move into the region today and stick around thru
Sat. This should provide a favorable environment for both effective
warming and cooling with 30+ degree diurnal temp spreads
anticipated. Clear/sunny conditions will prevail with a continued
dry nw flow aloft. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

The extended forecast remains generally on track with generally
benign conditions expected to prevail well into next week as the
synoptic pattern continues to be defined by broad surface high
pressure over the Central CONUS. Light to moderate northeast winds
will persist through early next week and continue to provide a
steady supply of dry air to the area. Total PW values remain in
the 0.5-1.0 in range through Monday, after which an onshore flow
pattern will gradually begin to return as the surface high shifts
to the east. This will result in a gradual warming and moistening
trend through the end of next week, with daily high temperatures
eventually creeping back above seasonal normals as many locations
flirt with the lower 90s by Wednesday. With the loss of dry
advection and eventual resumption of onshore flow, PWs begin to
recover to over 1.0 in by Tuesday and approach 1.25 in by
Wednesday. As a result, dew points also remain on an upward trend,
as values in the 40s on Sunday reach the mid 50s to mid 60s by
Thursday. Despite this, a lack of forcing will keep precipitation
chances very low, with no rainfall in the forecast for the time
being.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

VFR for the next 30+ hours. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Latest marine observations continue to report 15-20kt winds around
Galveston Bay and across the offshore waters in addition to 3-5
ft seas. While conditions will improve over the next few hours,
cautions remain in effect at this time. Light to moderate east to
northeast winds will persist through the duration of the weekend,
with flow transitioning to an onshore regime early next week. No
precipitation is expected over the next seven days.

Cady

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Even drier air will be making its way into the region today from the
ne/e. Afternoon RH`s should bottom out in the 17%-21% range inland
and 27-40% at the beaches today and thru the weekend. Wind speeds
will remain below Red Flag Warning criteria, but fire weather
conditions will be elevated considering the ongoing dry conditions.
The Texas A&M Forest Service continues to have a moderate fire
danger rating for most of Southeast Texas with a high to very high
fire danger rating for the Piney Woods area through Sunday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 55 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 69 82 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM CDT this morning for
TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ335-355-370-375.

&&

$$
Cromagnum
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No rain in sight for at least another week
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:20 am It’s crazy how much colder the Southeast is than Texas this time of year…. Most of the time. And then they are generally wetter.

Headed to Tuscaloosa next weekend and the forecast is 50 to 78. Meanwhile, further West down I-20 at the same latitude, Dallas will have a 10 degree warmer low and 5 degree warmer high.
That is what has happened for our Falls. They've disappeared here while the early Fall season cold fronts head east.

In this case, Ian's NW quadrant pulls is dragging air in from the upper Midwest.

At least the dewpoint is still low, but probably not so much next week.
Stratton20
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Good news is we are done with the mid to upper 90’s , all i see is upper 80’s to around 90-91 with lows in the upper 50’s to low 60’s the next 10 days, not bad at all, fall is coming
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jasons2k
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Temps now are great for me. Glad to be done with the 100-degree heat. Now if we could just get one decent rain to hold us over for awhile. Transportation and evaporation is less this time of year with the sun angle going down and the cooler weather. We don't need too much but something would be nice. My monthly total is 0.69" and that was all on the first or second of the month - nothing since.
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