September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 8:46 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 8:31 pm The tough/front is decided to rest nearly over us. On and off showers. I'm a little surprised to see it persist until nighttime.

Rain and 76°F. That's a real shame. ;)

I do hope it clears for the game Sat. at 11 am. We might escape before storms roll in around 2 pm.

Taylor King is starting. I hope our line protects him, but his legs still look like twigs to me. What's the O/U for the first game TK suffers an injury? - count me worried. Fortunately, Max Johnson and Connor Wegmen are excellent backups.

It is football season at last - can I get an amen!?
Haynes King*

Those 11am starts are terrible. They shouldn’t exist lol

I’m going with Sam Houston 14 A&M 38.

Interesting note on Connor Weigman. He’s also a hell of a baseball player. The dude is one of those rare Kyler Murray breeds that could be a potential first round pick in both baseball and football. Watched him at Bridgeland High School a couple years ago. Phenomenal athlete.
Right. Of course. Taylor King was a basketball who lasted a semester at Duke. He could hit a 30 foot set shot with ease, but smoked and couldn't run down the court.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 12:31 am That CMC model tonight..dang!
Yeah, that's an EPAC tidal wave of rain on SETX.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 021120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Make sure to keep that umbrella handy as scattered to widespread
daytime showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility through
the short term. Coverage today will be similar to yesterday with the
greatest chances in the afternoon along I-10 as the sea breeze taps
into moist PWATs of 2.1 to 2.3". Exact location of the storms will
be largely mesoscale driven with boundary interactions. A weak,
stalled frontal boundary will also bring a higher chance of showers
and thunderstorms to areas north of Huntsville this evening. This
boundary will slide further south into our region on Saturday
bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms compared to
today. Any strong storm will have the chance to produce 1 to 3+
inches of rainfall in a relatively short time, and storm motion will
likely be close to zero, leading to the possibility of minor urban
or small stream flooding. We have been in a persistent wet pattern
the past few weeks, so one hour FFG has decreased to only 2 to 3
inches. WPC has placed the eastern half of the region today and most
of the region tomorrow in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall. Make
sure to use safe driving practices in heavy rainfall by slowing down
and not driving into flooded roadways if you encounter them.

Afternoon high temperatures today will be largely dependent of the
scattered thunderstorms: where the storms hit highs may only climb
into the mid to upper 80s, while areas that don`t see storms will
get into the low to mid 90s. With more widespread coverage tomorrow
and increased cloud cover, afternoon highs will likely not climb out
of the mid 80s for more of the area. Overnight lows will continue to
be mid 70s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

A wet weather pattern is expected to persist through mid week as a
slow moving upper level trough, with weak shortwaves rounding the
base, expands southwestward across the Southern Plains and
eventually becomes a cut off low within the TX Panhandle and New
Mexico region (sometime Tuesday). Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are on tap for each day as onshore flow continues to
supply ample amounts of moisture across Southeast TX with PWs
staying between 2.0 to 2.3 inches through at least mid week.
Moisture amounts will be enough to support the development of
locally heavy rainfall from time to time as well. Will have to see
where the weak boundary lingers to get a better idea of where the
strongest activity will be. The global models keep the boundary
mainly over the southern counties through Monday with the highest
moisture sitting along and south of this boundary. Given that models
over the last few runs have been pretty consistent with both the
location of the boundary as well as the location of higher rain
chances, kept scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms,
mostly for areas along and south of the I-10 corridor.

However, there could still be some changes in the next few days. If
the boundary ends up more south (in the coastal counties or local
waters), then much of the rain should focus over the coasts and
coastal waters. However, if the boundary is truly closer towards the
I-10 corridor, then there is chance the bulk of the showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the southern and possibly the
central portions of Southeast TX both Sunday and Monday (Labor Day)
and may result in some minor flooding issues. This will depend on
how saturated the soils get (i.e., how much total rainfall we obtain
from the heavy rainfall), how slow the storms will move, and where
the slow moving storms occur. Keep in mind that heavy slow moving
storms over urban areas will be more susceptible to minor flood
issues than rural areas. At this time, the rain totals each day
through Tuesday are generally around 1 to 2 inches for areas near
and south of I-10, gradually lower northward. But some areas may
have isolated higher amounts. Continue to monitor the local radar
and updated forecasts, especially if you plan to travel during
the holiday weekend. NOTE: WPC continues a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall on Sunday for much of the southern two thirds
of Southeast TX.

There are some inconsistencies with the synoptic pattern within the
models from Tuesday into Thursday, but the general consensus shows
that chance of rain will continue well into the end of the work
week, especially during the daytime hours. The good news with all
the healthy rainfall and cloud coverage is that temperatures will
remain on the "cooler" side with highs generally in the mid to upper
80s through mid week and that hopefully the drought situation
improves.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Expect very similar conditions to yesterday with light
southeasterly winds developing by the afternoon. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop along I-10 in the afternoon
impacting IAH, SGR, and HOU. VCTS will also be possible at the
other terminals with the coastal sites (LBX and GLS) having the
greatest chance of TS in the mid to late morning and the northern
terminals (CXO, UTS, and CLL) in the late afternoon to evening.
Activity dies down after sunset, but expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to be more widespread on Saturday. VFR conditions
will generally prevail through the period.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds with seas of 2 to 3
feet will continue during the next several days. Scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected through
at least mid week as a weak frontal boundary lingers across the
southern portions of Southeast TX. Some of these storms will be
capable of producing strong gusty winds and locally higher waves
from time to time.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 88 73 / 50 30 70 40
Houston (IAH) 93 76 88 74 / 70 40 80 50
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 85 78 / 40 60 70 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...11
Pas_Bon
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Guys and gals, let's please keep the Texas A&M banter off the boards.
We all know LSU is superior in every way.
Stratton20
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😂😂😂mmmm ok
Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:25 am 😂😂😂mmmm ok
exactly First step toward healing is admitting it like you just did. :lol:
Stratton20
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Pas_Bon we will see! Brian Kelly is a good coach so hopefully he can get yall back on track, that game at kyle field is gonna be awesome! Hope the weathwr will be too haha
user:null
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Looks like August and September are doing a good job so far of saving this summer from a total F score in my book.
Cromagnum
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Here's to an early and prolonged fall season.
Stratton20
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Looks like the 12z models bring in moisture from the EPAC system and combine that with a cut off upper level low that is now being shown in the models, especially the GFS, will have to watch the mesoscale models as we get closer to this

The CMC actually tries to briefly spin up a TC as moisture associated with the EPAC system gets into the GOM, brings some rain before moving off to the east
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Somewhat typical summer pattern expected today. Sea breeze
showers and storms starting near the coast at 18Z and will spread
further inland towards the I-10 corridor by 21-22Z. Convective
activity should subside by 02Z with the loss of daytime heating.
Outside of the sea breeze convection, a weak front across Central
Texas will push south towards our northern counties by the early
evening. Therefore, sites north of IAH could also see VCSH/VCTS
from 20Z to 02Z. Afterwards, calm winds and low level moisture
could create areas of patchy fog and MVFR/IFR ceilings north of
I-10 during the overnight hours, especially for rural and low-
lying areas. This fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise
tomorrow. Afterwards, a weak low in the Gulf will push inland,
causing an earlier onset of coastal showers tomorrow morning. The
remaining weak frontal boundary draped across Southeast Texas will
also bring an earlier onset to showers and thunderstorms further
inland, with coverage expected to be scattered to widespread by
tomorrow afternoon.
Cpv17
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Looks like the convective temp has been reached. Storms are starting to pop! Radar should look pretty active late this afternoon into the evening.
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jasons2k
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Donut time!
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Cromagnum
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Naturally. Huge thunderstorm right by Cynthia Woods. Hope it's moving south and stays south.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:47 pm Yeah. 11 AM games suck. I used to be in the Aggie Band and it's a nonstop marathon all danged morning for those early games.
I started tailgating about 3 hours ago for our 11 am kick tomorrow. God Bless Bourbon and Football!
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 4:35 pm Naturally. Huge thunderstorm right by Cynthia Woods. Hope it's moving south and stays south.
Tell me how Megadeth is!
Cromagnum
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 6:39 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 4:35 pm Naturally. Huge thunderstorm right by Cynthia Woods. Hope it's moving south and stays south.
Tell me how Megadeth is!
Just posted up a spot on the lawn. Looks like storms are breaking up too.
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 7:17 pm
tireman4 wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 6:39 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 4:35 pm Naturally. Huge thunderstorm right by Cynthia Woods. Hope it's moving south and stays south.
Tell me how Megadeth is!
Just posted up a spot on the lawn. Looks like storms are breaking up too.
Enjoy the show!

Got the usual 1/2” here. Much better than nothing but as a storm lover still waiting for that elusive 1”+ dumping.
ajurcat
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 5:07 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:47 pm Yeah. 11 AM games suck. I used to be in the Aggie Band and it's a nonstop marathon all danged morning for those early games.
I started tailgating about 3 hours ago for our 11 am kick tomorrow. God Bless Bourbon and Football!
Nothing better than starting the tailgate 24 hours prior! Gig'em and Whoop!
Cpv17
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It’s looking to me like a lot of the rain is going to stay offshore the next few days. Well the bulk of it anyway.
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