September 2022

[tireman4]

The month of Fall. Tropical Mischief? Hot? Cold ( Cool) Fronts? Stay tuned

[DoctorMu]

Adios Death Ridge. Ola more rain.

[djmike]

And we have arrived to September 1st. Making it through August without a named tropical system which I believe hasn’t happened since 1941. Wet wet weekend ahead and I welcome the cooler temps. Might get lucky and see the first fall front at the end of the month like we see every once in a while. Rare, but it has happened. Have a great month everyone!

[Cpv17]

Overnight models have backed off on totals by a decent bit and so did the WPC.

[jasons2k]

Overnight models have backed off on totals by a decent bit and so did the WPC.

Same story, different month.

[Texashawk]

Lucy knows no season.

[Stratton20]

Lol its just one set of runs from last night yall, the QPF output by these models is going to change day by day, hour by hour

[jasons2k]

Lol its just one set of runs from last night yall, the QPF output by these models is going to change day by day, hour by hour

When the WPC makes adjustments it gets my attention.

[Cromagnum]

If all that rain could wait until Monday, that would be great.

[jasons2k]

This came from Jeff earlier this morning:

Periods of heavy rainfall likely over the next 4-5 days.

Wet pattern that started in early August will continue as same features continue to come together to produce scattered to numerous rains across the area. Rain chances will begin to increase today and especially on Friday and into the holiday weekend as a weak frontal boundary, deep tropical moisture, and several disturbances aloft move across the region.

Moisture remains in the 90th percentile for early September early this morning with PWS of 2.2-2.4 inches over the area. With modest heating, expect scattered storms to develop by mid to late morning. Heavy rainfall will be possible along with frequent lightning. Frontal boundary begins to approach from the N/NE on Friday and expect a gradual increase in storm frequency and organization as this boundary sinks into the area and stalls over the weekend.

Forecast soundings over the weekend suggest a very tropical air mass with PWS approaching 2.5 inches over the area and a saturated deep layer up to 15,000ft will support excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. Slow storm motions and/or cell training could anchor these type of rainfall rates over areas leading to flash flooding. There is cause for some concern with a stalling boundary over the area that could help organize slow moving storms. There is little confidence on where any issues may happen, but the holiday weekend is looking wet.

Aside: for those heading to the Hill Country or SW TX this weekend, high rain chances and similar flood threat will be in place for this part of Texas. Grounds have become increasingly saturated over the last few weeks, and with potential rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour, significant rises and flash floods on normally dry or slowly flowing creeks and rivers will be possible. Remain aware of the weather and be prepared to act quickly if near creeks and rivers in the Hilly Country or SW TX this weekend.

Grounds are starting to become wet over the area, especially west of I-45 where rainfall of 1-5 inches has occurred over the last few days. Not expecting widespread flooding, but increasing run-off will be possible this weekend with high rainfall rates. Think the biggest threat will be street flooding as is usual under rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Will have to watch daily trends to see if the flood threat at any particular time or location is greater on some days.

WPC has placed much of the area under a slight risk for flash flooding for the weekend.

Tropics:

There are several areas of interest over the Atlantic, but these will be no threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Lindner