September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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The month of Fall. Tropical Mischief? Hot? Cold ( Cool) Fronts? Stay tuned
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DoctorMu
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Adios Death Ridge. Ola more rain.
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djmike
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And we have arrived to September 1st. Making it through August without a named tropical system which I believe hasn’t happened since 1941. Wet wet weekend ahead and I welcome the cooler temps. Might get lucky and see the first fall front at the end of the month like we see every once in a while. Rare, but it has happened. Have a great month everyone!
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
Cpv17
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Overnight models have backed off on totals by a decent bit and so did the WPC.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 7:20 am Overnight models have backed off on totals by a decent bit and so did the WPC.
Same story, different month. :D
Texashawk
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Lucy knows no season.
Stratton20
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Lol its just one set of runs from last night yall, the QPF output by these models is going to change day by day, hour by hour
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:13 am Lol its just one set of runs from last night yall, the QPF output by these models is going to change day by day, hour by hour
When the WPC makes adjustments it gets my attention.
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If all that rain could wait until Monday, that would be great.
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jasons2k
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This came from Jeff earlier this morning:
Periods of heavy rainfall likely over the next 4-5 days.

Wet pattern that started in early August will continue as same features continue to come together to produce scattered to numerous rains across the area. Rain chances will begin to increase today and especially on Friday and into the holiday weekend as a weak frontal boundary, deep tropical moisture, and several disturbances aloft move across the region.

Moisture remains in the 90th percentile for early September early this morning with PWS of 2.2-2.4 inches over the area. With modest heating, expect scattered storms to develop by mid to late morning. Heavy rainfall will be possible along with frequent lightning. Frontal boundary begins to approach from the N/NE on Friday and expect a gradual increase in storm frequency and organization as this boundary sinks into the area and stalls over the weekend.

Forecast soundings over the weekend suggest a very tropical air mass with PWS approaching 2.5 inches over the area and a saturated deep layer up to 15,000ft will support excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. Slow storm motions and/or cell training could anchor these type of rainfall rates over areas leading to flash flooding. There is cause for some concern with a stalling boundary over the area that could help organize slow moving storms. There is little confidence on where any issues may happen, but the holiday weekend is looking wet.

Aside: for those heading to the Hill Country or SW TX this weekend, high rain chances and similar flood threat will be in place for this part of Texas. Grounds have become increasingly saturated over the last few weeks, and with potential rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour, significant rises and flash floods on normally dry or slowly flowing creeks and rivers will be possible. Remain aware of the weather and be prepared to act quickly if near creeks and rivers in the Hilly Country or SW TX this weekend.

Grounds are starting to become wet over the area, especially west of I-45 where rainfall of 1-5 inches has occurred over the last few days. Not expecting widespread flooding, but increasing run-off will be possible this weekend with high rainfall rates. Think the biggest threat will be street flooding as is usual under rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Will have to watch daily trends to see if the flood threat at any particular time or location is greater on some days.

WPC has placed much of the area under a slight risk for flash flooding for the weekend.

Tropics:

There are several areas of interest over the Atlantic, but these will be no threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Lindner
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tireman4
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FXUS64 KHGX 011131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

A somewhat typical summer pattern is on tap for today but with a
slight increase in afternoon rain chances as an upper level trough
moves across the Southern Plains. Most of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will likely occur during the afternoon hours
as heating peaks, though some isolated activity could occur by mid
morning. The afternoon storms will dissipate in the evening,
however, there may be some storms developing around the north and
northeastern portions of TX that could push into Southeast TX
sometime in the evening or early night hours. There are still some
inconsistencies within the Hi-Res/CAMs solutions, thus, we will have
to wait for the evolution and path of these storms to know for sure
how far south and how strong they will be over our local area. The
most likely scenario for this forecast package is isolated to
scattered activity mainly for areas north of the I-10 during the
night hours.

Friday will mark the start of a wetter weather pattern for Southeast
TX that is likely to continue through the next few days. Shortwaves
embedded in the base of the upper level trough will move over the
Southern Plains and continue to provide an unstable environment
across parts of TX. A weak surface boundary will slowly drag
southward into Southeast TX Friday afternoon/evening and likely
stall or meander somewhere near the central or southern counties.
The upper and low level features, combined with ample low level
moisture (PWs of 2.0 to 2.3 inches), should result in periods of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall can be expected; therefore, minor urban and
small stream flood issues may occur with slow moving or stationary
storms. This may be more of a factor for this upcoming weekend, but
check the local radar and the updated forecasts, especially if you
plan to drive through areas receiving heavy rainfall.

Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer with highs ranging
closer to the mid 90s inland and in the low 90s along the coasts.
Lows overnight will remain in the mid 70s inland and low 80s along
the coasts. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday with highs
mostly in the low 90s areawide.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

A stalled frontal boundary extending along the TX coast and into the
northern Gulf will continue to be the main focus for precipitation
chances through most of the extended period. By Saturday, showers
and thunderstorms will be ongoing as the boundary meanders over the
region. A similar scenario with periods of showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated for Sunday. PWAT values between 2.0-2.5 inches
are progged across most of Southeast TX through at least Monday. In
fact, these values are close to the 90th percentile of climatology
according to NAEFS and GEFS-M. The combination of abundant/deep
moisture, forcing associated to different mid to upper level
shortwaves moving over north-central TX, deep warm cloud layer and
the possibility of training storms will potentially result in
locally heavy rainfall over most of the region. WPC highlights this
risk on their Day 3 and 4 with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall.

Unsettled conditions continue on Labor Day as the boundary lingers
over the region. Have continued with 50 to 80 PoPs for the period
given favorable dynamics at the sfc and aloft and decent consistency
between global models. Forecast becomes a bit messy after Monday,
but the general consensus shows the front slowly lifting farther
north sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday. With persistent
southerly warm and moist air, periods of showers and storms will
continue, mainly along the convergence zones.

Near to below normal temperatures are expected through the period
given abundant cloud cover and increasing precipitation chances.
Highs will generally be from the mid 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows
mainly in the upper 70s.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

VFR conditions expected across SE TX sites with light VRB winds
in the morning, becoming E-SE in the afternoon at 8 KTS or less.
ISO-SCT SH/TS will develop in the afternoon and dissipate in the
late afternoon to evening hours. A few more rounds of SH/TS
developing over N-NE TX may move over areas north of the I-10
corridor tonight. Some patchy fog is possible during the overnight
hours, but confidence is low and have thus kept it out of this
TAF issuance. Higher rain chances can be expected Fri.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

Light onshore winds and seas generally from 1-2 ft are expected
today along with a few showers and thunderstorms through the day.
Winds will gradually shift to the east then south-southeast into the
weekend ahead of a frontal boundary. This boundary will remain
near/along the Upper TX coast mainly from Friday night into early
next week. As a result, widespread showers and thunderstorms can be
expected along with elevated seas (up to 4ft). Gusty winds and
elevated seas will be possible with any stronger storms. This wet
pattern will continue through most of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 74 91 75 / 40 40 40 30
Houston (IAH) 95 75 92 76 / 40 30 50 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 89 80 / 20 20 50 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...25
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DoctorMu
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Continued 30-70% chance of rain over the next 5 days in the area. Hope Saturday's morning game stays dry.

No complaints. Sprinklers are off. The A/C is running less. It's a bit humid, but Friday may be the last day for a week in the 90s...much less the 100s.
Cpv17
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From what I can tell it looks like 2-4” north of 10 and 4-6” south of 10. And I’m sure there will be pockets that could double those totals. So it still looks like a solid rain event just not quite as much as the WPC had yesterday.
Stratton20
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Guess we will just have to watch the mesoscale models
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TxLady
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Hallelujah, it's September! Even if the temperatures might still be hot, and the rainfall minimal, there's a distinct change of mood on this Day. The shadows are casting longer. Hope begins for that first slight taste of Fall. I wait for this day, every year. Now, I can put the dreaded endless days of Hot behind me on the calendar. I wake to a small glimmer of hope that the first crisp Fall Day is almost within reach!
Cpv17
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TxLady wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 1:59 pm Hallelujah, it's September! Even if the temperatures might still be hot, and the rainfall minimal, there's a distinct change of mood on this Day. The shadows are casting longer. Hope begins for that first slight taste of Fall. I wait for this day, every year. Now, I can put the dreaded endless days of Hot behind me on the calendar. I wake to a small glimmer of hope that the first crisp Fall Day is almost within reach!
Probably another 5-6 weeks away from our first decent front. Just a guess though.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 1:54 pm Guess we will just have to watch the mesoscale models
Yep, exactly! They’ll be coming into range soon. I remember the mesoscale models handled the Dallas floods pretty well compared to what the WPC was calling for.
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jasons2k
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Outflow collision imminent…but everything is north of here…

Just radar watching.
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Stratton20
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Nothing better than forgetting to pack your umbrella and as Soon as I get out of lecture I just get absolutely dumped on!😁
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jasons2k
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0.00” again. This sums it up:

Here is yesterday - all to the south:
7B900148-5DFD-48C8-974E-122EFF4AC8E2.jpeg
Here is today - all to the north:
646A373E-64EF-4FD0-8248-E886602A5425.png
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