3 major models (GFS, CMC, Euro) and the GEPS Ensemble have gone stronger, colder, faster with the biggest push in the Southeast, but more effect on SETX.
We'll see.
October 2022
NWS just poked in with a 69°F next Wednesday.
3 major models (GFS, CMC, Euro) and the GEPS Ensemble have gone stronger, colder, faster with the biggest push in the Southeast, but more effect on SETX.
We'll see.
3 major models (GFS, CMC, Euro) and the GEPS Ensemble have gone stronger, colder, faster with the biggest push in the Southeast, but more effect on SETX.
We'll see.
The CPC has been saying this for several days now. Strongest push of cold air will probably be east of us.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
E Pearland, Friendswood, and W League City won the the rainfall lottery with a slow moving thunderstorm drifting SE and now located between Alvin and Sante Fe. The yard is happy with a little over .50” of rain. Highest total was 1.36” viewed from the Harris County Flood Control website.
We are the donut hole in the middle of a spotty line of showers along the (first) weak FROPA. There should be a wind shift and low humidity tomorrow before another surge in Gulf moisture this weekend. Sunday night should bring the stronger FROPA and a moderat chance of rain: 40-50%.Katdaddy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:19 pm E Pearland, Friendswood, and W League City won the the rainfall lottery with a slow moving thunderstorm drifting SE and now located between Alvin and Sante Fe. The yard is happy with a little over .50” of rain. Highest total was 1.36” viewed from the Harris County Flood Control website.
Over the last 5 months we've had almost no rain except for that brief period in early September.
My neighbors leaves are dropping like flies. He's older and probably forgot to water them in addition to the sprinklers.
My neighbors leaves are dropping like flies. He's older and probably forgot to water them in addition to the sprinklers.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4480
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 131148
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
A cold front is pushing through the region early this morning,
producing isolated thunderstorms along and ahead the boundary. Low
to mid level lapse rates are limited but decent CAPE and forcing
aided by a mid-lvl shortwave will support a few storms through
daybreak. The front should reach the coastal zones by 6-8AM,
resulting in rain/storm chances as it moves southward. In addition
to showers and storms, light winds and low-level moisture are
resulting in low clouds and/or areas of fog (some locally dense)
ahead of the boundary. Areas along and south of the I-10 corridor
are more prone to see fog through early this morning.
While drier air will begin to filter in behind the FROPA, another
round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected across
portions of the region today. The front will continue to be the
main focus as it will slowly move south and remain quasi-
stationary along the coast. The interaction of this boundary and
the seabreeze during the peak diurnal heating will support
isolated to scattered showers and storms. Expect showers mainly
along the coast this morning, spreading inland in the afternoon.
Drier conditions and lower humidity levels should prevail mostly
for areas north of the Houston metro area. Regarding temperatures,
warm conditions will continue with highs climbing into the upper
80s and low 90s. Drier and cooler air along with mostly clear
skies should result in low temperatures from the mid 50s to upper
70s inland and in the 70s along the islands tonight.
The work-week will close out drier and slightly cooler. High
pressure builds in over Southeastern CONUS, bringing southeasterly
winds across SETX for Friday. Some coastal showers will be
possible during the day, but most of the region should remain dry.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
With moderate low-level onshore winds and a weak ridge aloft set-
tling over the region, warm/humid almost summer-like weather will
prevail across SE TX this weekend. High temperatures are going to
range from the upper 80s and lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Rain chances will likely remain low on Sat...mainly
over the coastal waters and counties early in the day. But, these
POPs are going to be on the rise by Sun with the development of a
strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front moving just south of
the Red River. Additionally, PWs are progged to pool to around 2"
across the CWA and there is a possibility of a shortwave (or two)
moving in from the west. All of this should support the formation
of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sun with these elevated
chances persisting Sun night and Mon as the cold front sinks into
SE TX. The front should be off the coast by Mon afternoon (as per
these latest runs)...but clouds could linger a bit longer as the
closed upper low (lingering just west of the Baja Peninsula) be-
gins to move east (and weakening) across the Southern Plains.
But the main forecast takeaway for next week should be the cooler
(i.e. fall-like) temperatures for SE TX. If it all does verify we
could be looking at highs in the 70s and lows from the 40s to 50s
through much of next week. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail over the next couple of hours
for terminals along and south of IAH. This is in response to a
a cold front, currently moving over the region. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as the front reaches the coastal
waters early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
today with light to moderate northeast winds. Isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon, possibly
impacting LBX, SGR and HOU terminals through late afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
A weak cold front is expected to move into the nearshore waters this
morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop ahead and
along this boundary through this afternoon as it stalls over the Up-
per TX coastal waters. Light offshore winds will prevail in the wake
of the front for much of the day, but E/SE winds could return to the
area as early as this afternoon and evening as the front weakens and
moves back inland. These onshore winds are forecast to strengthen as
we head into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will also
be on the rise as deeper moisture moves in from the SW Gulf. Caution
flags may be needed at times over the weekend.
Otherwise, a strong cold front moving across SE TX could make it to
the coastal waters by late Mon. Stay tuned. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 62 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 64 89 67 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 73 84 76 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...05
FXUS64 KHGX 131148
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
A cold front is pushing through the region early this morning,
producing isolated thunderstorms along and ahead the boundary. Low
to mid level lapse rates are limited but decent CAPE and forcing
aided by a mid-lvl shortwave will support a few storms through
daybreak. The front should reach the coastal zones by 6-8AM,
resulting in rain/storm chances as it moves southward. In addition
to showers and storms, light winds and low-level moisture are
resulting in low clouds and/or areas of fog (some locally dense)
ahead of the boundary. Areas along and south of the I-10 corridor
are more prone to see fog through early this morning.
While drier air will begin to filter in behind the FROPA, another
round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected across
portions of the region today. The front will continue to be the
main focus as it will slowly move south and remain quasi-
stationary along the coast. The interaction of this boundary and
the seabreeze during the peak diurnal heating will support
isolated to scattered showers and storms. Expect showers mainly
along the coast this morning, spreading inland in the afternoon.
Drier conditions and lower humidity levels should prevail mostly
for areas north of the Houston metro area. Regarding temperatures,
warm conditions will continue with highs climbing into the upper
80s and low 90s. Drier and cooler air along with mostly clear
skies should result in low temperatures from the mid 50s to upper
70s inland and in the 70s along the islands tonight.
The work-week will close out drier and slightly cooler. High
pressure builds in over Southeastern CONUS, bringing southeasterly
winds across SETX for Friday. Some coastal showers will be
possible during the day, but most of the region should remain dry.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
With moderate low-level onshore winds and a weak ridge aloft set-
tling over the region, warm/humid almost summer-like weather will
prevail across SE TX this weekend. High temperatures are going to
range from the upper 80s and lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Rain chances will likely remain low on Sat...mainly
over the coastal waters and counties early in the day. But, these
POPs are going to be on the rise by Sun with the development of a
strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front moving just south of
the Red River. Additionally, PWs are progged to pool to around 2"
across the CWA and there is a possibility of a shortwave (or two)
moving in from the west. All of this should support the formation
of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sun with these elevated
chances persisting Sun night and Mon as the cold front sinks into
SE TX. The front should be off the coast by Mon afternoon (as per
these latest runs)...but clouds could linger a bit longer as the
closed upper low (lingering just west of the Baja Peninsula) be-
gins to move east (and weakening) across the Southern Plains.
But the main forecast takeaway for next week should be the cooler
(i.e. fall-like) temperatures for SE TX. If it all does verify we
could be looking at highs in the 70s and lows from the 40s to 50s
through much of next week. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail over the next couple of hours
for terminals along and south of IAH. This is in response to a
a cold front, currently moving over the region. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as the front reaches the coastal
waters early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
today with light to moderate northeast winds. Isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon, possibly
impacting LBX, SGR and HOU terminals through late afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
A weak cold front is expected to move into the nearshore waters this
morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop ahead and
along this boundary through this afternoon as it stalls over the Up-
per TX coastal waters. Light offshore winds will prevail in the wake
of the front for much of the day, but E/SE winds could return to the
area as early as this afternoon and evening as the front weakens and
moves back inland. These onshore winds are forecast to strengthen as
we head into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will also
be on the rise as deeper moisture moves in from the SW Gulf. Caution
flags may be needed at times over the weekend.
Otherwise, a strong cold front moving across SE TX could make it to
the coastal waters by late Mon. Stay tuned. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 62 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 64 89 67 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 73 84 76 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...05
0.00”
Trend continues
Trend continues
-
Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
6z GFS looks really interesting, but treat it with a grain of salt.
Man I got dumped on about 6am this morning in Beaumont. Had some hefty storms with the heaviest rain Ive seen in a long time. Picked up almost an inch in 20min. My yard is screaming with joy!! Now my weeds looking healthy again! Lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Looking at the medium-long range guidance in the EPS and GEFS, the good news is i don’t see much ridging over texas ( at least nothing strong) the next 10+ days or so, the ridge looks to set up shop in the Pacific Northwest which allows for troughing to dominate the Central and eastern US, think a trend toward near normal or slightly below normal temps in the 8-14 day outlook seems reasonable, I am very confident that we are finished with the 90’s until june, after this weekend
Storms starting to fire up over my way.
-
Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
The CPC has leaning above normal precip, but with above normal temperatures, severe weather action?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:14 pm Looking at the medium-long range guidance in the EPS and GEFS, the good news is i don’t see much ridging over texas ( at least nothing strong) the next 10+ days or so, the ridge looks to set up shop in the Pacific Northwest which allows for troughing to dominate the Central and eastern US, think a trend toward near normal or slightly below normal temps in the 8-14 day outlook seems reasonable, I am very confident that we are finished with the 90’s until june, after this weekend
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Iceresistance possibly, this is the time of year where we start to get these noticeable temperature differences with each front, clash of warm unstable air and cooler air, definitely severe weather might be on the table, though for now it just looks like some general thunderstorms with this stronger front coming
.72” here this evening. Still sitting under half of our avg yearly rainfall for a year.. crazy to wonder what will happened the next few years as it “averages out”. Go Astros!
A really pleasant evening with DPs in the 40s.
When we get return flow it better rain!
When we get return flow it better rain!
It's rained significantly more in the Arizona and New Mexican deserts than College Station since May 8.
NWS abandoned the 60s for highs next week. NWS has retained them. I expect the moderation scenario.
Rain chances - dice roll for NWS at 50%
TWC at 72% (why the 2?)
TWC at 72% (why the 2?)
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