October 2022

[Cromagnum]

How much wind did we really have at MMP on game 2? It seems the Yankees think the winds were howling out there.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro looks very nice, back to back storm systems throughout the entire run with frequent cool downs, ridging never really builds over the state

[DoctorMu]

How much wind did we really have at MMP on game 2? It seems the Yankees think the winds were howling out there.

Crybabies. Yanquis fans were complaining about Berkman's exit velocity on his massive HR. lol

Know your environmental and field conditions at all times.

Yankee stadium has that short porch in RF. So many doubles become HRs.

[DoctorMu]

The models have gotten a little more aggressive with QPF here in the NW territories. Maybe 1 in +. I'd certainly take that!

[Iceresistance]

The models have gotten a little more aggressive with QPF here in the NW territories. Maybe 1 in +. I'd certainly take that!

I'm expecting 2-3 inches in those next 2-3 days!

[Cpv17]

The models have gotten a little more aggressive with QPF here in the NW territories. Maybe 1 in +. I'd certainly take that!

I'm expecting 2-3 inches in those next 2-3 days!

Happy for you. Oklahoma is in dire need for rain.

[redneckweather]

12z Euro looks very nice, back to back storm systems throughout the entire run with frequent cool downs, ridging never really builds over the state

I'm starting to like you a little more these days.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro looks even better today.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep! encouraged by that run

[Cpv17]

I guess it’s that time of the year again where it’s windy almost every day. Sucks when you live out in the country like I do with nothing to block it.

[DoctorMu]

I guess it’s that time of the year again where it’s windy almost every day. Sucks when you live out in the country like I do with nothing to block it.

S22 G33 here. At least the DP is still in the 50s. Feels OK out there.

Tomorrow and Monday could be nasty humidity. It better rain.

[TexasBreeze]

I guess having a breeze didn't help the Yankees much. Silly to bring up that excuse the other evening!

[Cpv17]

I guess having a breeze didn't help the Yankees much. Silly to bring up that excuse the other evening!

Lol we’re owning them!

[Iceresistance]

Broad Slight Risk for Severe Storms for SE Texas tomorrow.

[don]

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX
EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX...EAST TX/FAR WESTERN LA...AND MIDDLE/UPPER
TX COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas eastward to the
Arklatex, east Texas, far western Louisiana and middle/upper Texas
Coast Monday evening and overnight.

...Synopsis...
A complex upper pattern evolution is anticipated on Monday as a
large-scale upper trough gradually moves eastward across the Plains.
Two shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large upper
trough early Monday, one over the northern Plains and the other over
the Southwest. The northern Plains shortwave is expected to continue
quickly northeastward while the Southwest shortwave moves eastward
into the southern Plains. A weak shortwave over northern Mexico will
precede the Southwest shortwave across TX, while the remnants of
Hurricane Roslyn move quickly northeastward along the TX Coast and
into the Lower MS Valley.

Surface pattern early Monday is expected to feature an occluded low
over eastern ND, with an occluded front extending southeastward from
this low to a triple point over central MN. A cold front will likely
extend southwestward from this triple point through the Lower MO
Valley and central OK. The majority of this front is expected to
progress gradually eastward throughout day. The only exception is
the portion of the front in TX, which will only make minor eastward
progress until Monday evening when the shortwave moves through and
the front surges eastward.

...Southern Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of
the front from southeast KS across central OK and into southwest TX.
Buoyancy will be tempered by relatively warm mid-level temperatures
but moderate mid-level flow could still result in a few updrafts
capable of hail and/or strong downdrafts. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue along the front as the more progressive portion moves
across OK and north TX. The front is expected to become more diffuse
across central TX as surface pressure falls across west TX ahead of
the main shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorm development is
possible within the warm sector ahead of the front across East TX,
but modest buoyancy should keep any severe potential isolated.

Higher severe potential is anticipated later Monday evening and
overnight as the Southwest shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis moves through the southern Plains, transitioning from a
positive tilt to a slightly negative tilt. Strong forcing for ascent
will accompany this shortwave, fostering the development of
additional thunderstorms as it encounters the moderately moist and
buoyant air mass remaining over TX. Thunderstorms will likely begin
in the southwest TX vicinity before then moving quickly eastward
across central TX/Hill Country and east TX. Given the strong low to
mid-level flow accompanying this shortwave, the primary severe risk
is damaging gusts. Some tornado potential will also exist,
particularly near the surface low, where convergence and low-level
vorticity are maximized, and across southeast TX, where the most
favorable overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly
surface winds is anticipated.

[Stratton20]

12z GFS has a big arctic blast for the central US, too bad its 12 days out though ugh!

[DoctorMu]

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX
EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX...EAST TX/FAR WESTERN LA...AND MIDDLE/UPPER
TX COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas eastward to the
Arklatex, east Texas, far western Louisiana and middle/upper Texas
Coast Monday evening and overnight.

...Synopsis...
A complex upper pattern evolution is anticipated on Monday as a
large-scale upper trough gradually moves eastward across the Plains.
Two shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large upper
trough early Monday, one over the northern Plains and the other over
the Southwest. The northern Plains shortwave is expected to continue
quickly northeastward while the Southwest shortwave moves eastward
into the southern Plains. A weak shortwave over northern Mexico will
precede the Southwest shortwave across TX, while the remnants of
Hurricane Roslyn move quickly northeastward along the TX Coast and
into the Lower MS Valley.

Surface pattern early Monday is expected to feature an occluded low
over eastern ND, with an occluded front extending southeastward from
this low to a triple point over central MN. A cold front will likely
extend southwestward from this triple point through the Lower MO
Valley and central OK. The majority of this front is expected to
progress gradually eastward throughout day. The only exception is
the portion of the front in TX, which will only make minor eastward
progress until Monday evening when the shortwave moves through and
the front surges eastward.

...Southern Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of
the front from southeast KS across central OK and into southwest TX.
Buoyancy will be tempered by relatively warm mid-level temperatures
but moderate mid-level flow could still result in a few updrafts
capable of hail and/or strong downdrafts. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue along the front as the more progressive portion moves
across OK and north TX. The front is expected to become more diffuse
across central TX as surface pressure falls across west TX ahead of
the main shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorm development is
possible within the warm sector ahead of the front across East TX,
but modest buoyancy should keep any severe potential isolated.

Higher severe potential is anticipated later Monday evening and
overnight as the Southwest shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis moves through the southern Plains, transitioning from a
positive tilt to a slightly negative tilt. Strong forcing for ascent
will accompany this shortwave, fostering the development of
additional thunderstorms as it encounters the moderately moist and
buoyant air mass remaining over TX. Thunderstorms will likely begin
in the southwest TX vicinity before then moving quickly eastward
across central TX/Hill Country and east TX. Given the strong low to
mid-level flow accompanying this shortwave, the primary severe risk
is damaging gusts. Some tornado potential will also exist,
particularly near the surface low, where convergence and low-level
vorticity are maximized, and across southeast TX, where the most
favorable overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly
surface winds is anticipated.

Bring it! Rain prog up to 80% chance Monday night (NWS).

[DoctorMu]

Euro has increased the QPF for the week up to 1.9 inches of rain. GFS at 2.1 in of precip. 2.4 inches for CMC. UKMet at 2.0. Good to see the models in agreement.

So they are integrating the remnants of Rosalyn as suspected earlier.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff:

A strong storm system, cold front, and remains of hurricane Roslyn will bring a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms to SE TX late Monday into early Tuesday.

Hurricane Roslyn made landfall this morning on the western coast of MX as a powerful category 3 hurricane with winds of 120mph. Earlier this morning a wind gust of 132mph was recorded in the higher terrain along the MX west coast. Roslyn is starting to accelerate northeastward and across the high mountainous terrain over central MX where the low level center of the hurricane will be destroyed. However, mid and upper level moisture is streaming quickly toward SW/S TX along with ripples of energy in the upper level flow. At the same time, a strong short wave trough is digging southward into the SW US and will swing eastward into the southern plains on Monday. Associated with this trough will be a surface cold front which will sweep across TX Monday and Tuesday. Moisture and lift from Roslyn will cross the Rio Grande this evening and shear out across S/SE TX early Monday. When combined with increasing Gulf moisture, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to begin to develop with heating on Monday across the area, with the greatest chances Monday afternoon.

Arrival of incoming short wave lift and front Monday night will likely result in a broken line of strong thunderstorms. SPC has outlooked all of SE TX in a 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather Monday night/early Tuesday. Mid level flow increase Monday evening over the SE TX warm sector and this will support an increasing damaging wind threat with a line of thunderstorms moving in from the west. Additionally, a weak surface low may form over the mid TX coastal plain late Monday and this will help to back low level winds to the SE which will help to add a slight bit of turning in the low level profile. While damaging winds will be the main threat Monday night, an isolated tornado or two will be possible with any “notches” in the line or if sustained supercell structures develop in the warm sector air mass ahead of the main line.

Overall system is progressive and will clear the area early Tuesday morning with dry northwesterly winds and another cool air mass filtering in along with clearing skies. Fall weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday, but quick changes look likely toward the end of the week as a coastal trough develops along the lower TX coast and moisture quickly spreads back northward. Will bring rain chances back quickly on Friday and may need to linger into Saturday depending on timing of the next front which may bring a decent shot of cold air into the region next weekend.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[Cromagnum]

What happened to all that stalled rain that was suppose to set up? Looks Ike everything is going to blow through quickly in the middle of Monday night.