October 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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October 2022

Post by tireman4 » Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:17 pm

What shall it bring? Tricks? Treats? Cooler weather? Tropical Mischief? So we shall see.

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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:46 pm

Likely more summer... :(

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Re: October 2022

Post by Scott747 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:27 am

Hard to imagine imagine a system from the deep tropics making it this far considering the time of year but there certainly growing model support for a significant system in the nw Caribbean late in September with long term track up in the air.

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Re: October 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:26 pm

GFS went nuts on its latest run for the GOM and the 12z Euro is similar, im not that concerned about a texas threat similar to what Scott747 says, but this is something that will be needed to watch closely, to have two of the best and most dependable models showing a major hurricane somewhere in the gulf in about 9-10 days is at least of somewhat concern

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Re: October 2022

Post by Stormlover2020 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:47 pm

Why wouldn’t u be concerned?? Delta was a close counter in 2020, it’s still sept, late sept and early October texas is still in play

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Re: October 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:12 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:47 pm
Why wouldn’t u be concerned?? Delta was a close counter in 2020, it’s still sept, late sept and early October texas is still in play
I’m not really concerned about it. Fairly confident that if it does get into the Gulf it’ll probably go somewhere east of New Orleans but it’s worth paying attention to. Low odds that it would make it this far west in late September.

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Re: October 2022

Post by Stormlover2020 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:20 pm

This first image of the 500mb (upper air) pattern is the first and middle part of the upcoming week. Fiona is in the middle there, and these storms typically like to find a weakness since these highs are separated,Fiona found it, which is why it is moving north.
Now what usually happens in these cases is a tropical system will find the weakness, and then to equalize things, high pressure will build back behind it. As disturbance three moves across the Caribbean, it will not be able to find a weakness and continue to pressure west which is a good example in this other upper-level example which would be about 10 days out.
While there is a trough across the Northeast United States, the high to the south, at this time, is expected to be strong enough to steer it west-northwest. After that, it would be anyone’s guess.

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Re: October 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:23 pm

Cpv17 its simply to early to say that, I think we need to stay on guard just in case, honestly everyone on the gulf coast needs to be alert lol

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Re: October 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:40 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:23 pm
Cpv17 its simply to early to say that, I think we need to stay on guard just in case, honestly everyone on the gulf coast needs to be alert lol
I still stand by what I say lol climo suggests more a northern or eastern Gulf threat. I’d be pretty shocked if it went towards us. Stranger things have happened and never say never but yeah I’d be shocked if we got a threat to Texas in late September.

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Re: October 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:43 pm

Yeah, it would be tricky. The gaps in the upper level highs are going to be small.

We have a clear omega block now, but weakness in late September and early October.

It's very early, but yet another LATX solution would not be a surprise.
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