October 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Re: October 2022

Post by don » Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:28 am

Some of yall are using that term "bust" way too loosly these days. The MCS has developed as forecast this is not a bust. Just because some models have shown the upper end of what is possible if everything came together when it comes to qpf amounts(3-5 inches). The "official" forecast has always been for 1-2 inches of rain.At least wait till the MCS passes through before calling an event a bust. LOL

Also to those saying the events the last couple of years have underperformed qpf wise. Yall are right 👍the background state of the atmosphere has not supported overperformance of rainfall. As a result we are in a multi year drought similar to 2010-2013. Though not as bad as that drought was.The switch will eventually flip again though like it did in 2015-2019.

Cromagnum
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Re: October 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Fri Oct 28, 2022 9:09 am

Models have been decent at predicting rain vs no rain I guess. I think they were far more accurate 10 years ago though.

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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Oct 28, 2022 9:36 am

0.08 with last night's streamer cells - that's all...although south of us got some decent rain.. We have a broken line of showers, T-storms approaching. My guess is we'll get about 0.5 inches. Maybe a little more.

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tireman4
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Re: October 2022

Post by tireman4 » Fri Oct 28, 2022 9:57 am

A line of rain is coming

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jasons2k
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Re: October 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:11 am

There is also the ULL behind the line.
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Stratton20
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Re: October 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:14 am

the ULL will be ejecting off to the NE, this line is our last opportunity for rainfall

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don
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Re: October 2022

Post by don » Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:32 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:14 am
the ULL will be ejecting off to the NE, this line is our last opportunity for rainfall
No its not our last opportunity for rainfall today. Models have been showing since yesterday a secondary line of storms coming through tonight as the ULL passes,especially along and north of I-10.
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Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 11-09-57 Models NAM 3km CONUS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 11-08-49 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png

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Re: October 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:49 am

Next decent chance of rain after this will be on Tuesday but it’s gonna be a close call as to where it sets up. It might be just off the coast again. Then possibly next Friday/Saturday there could be another opportunity. But yeah given the background state we should go on the low end of what models are saying. So for example, if they’re saying 1-2”, majority of us will get 1” rather than 2”. The switch will flip and will be the other way around at some point but that’s probably still several months away.

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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:51 am

tireman4 wrote:
Fri Oct 28, 2022 9:57 am
A line of rain is coming
We're in it now. Perhaps 1-2 inches of rain could happen.

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Re: October 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Oct 28, 2022 11:32 am

I’ve already shifted my focus to Tuesday. This is what the 0z Euro showed:

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Yes please! :lol:

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