October 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1488
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Re: October 2022

Post by djmike » Fri Oct 28, 2022 6:50 pm

3” and counting in Beaumont.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

User avatar
don
Posts: 1949
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Re: October 2022

Post by don » Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:15 pm

2.36" here.

Cpv17
Posts: 3603
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: October 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:17 pm

djmike wrote:
Fri Oct 28, 2022 6:50 pm
3” and counting in Beaumont.
Again Beaumont with the jackpot lol what a surprise.

Cpv17
Posts: 3603
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: October 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:19 pm

Tuesday’s rain looks like it might be offshore at this time.

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 4591
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: October 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:05 pm

Picked up an additional 0.56” today for a storm total of 1”

Much needed drought relief.

Edit: ended up with 1.06” in the end…
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Oct 31, 2022 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1488
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Re: October 2022

Post by djmike » Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:35 pm

Man its is pouring! Closing in fast to 4” and training setting up again just to my west. Might see 5-6” before all said and done.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1488
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Re: October 2022

Post by djmike » Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:36 pm

E1B986B9-F16D-4BF3-A2BA-31C7B56F1D11.jpeg
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1488
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Re: October 2022

Post by djmike » Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:37 pm

5” and counting in Beaumont
0B330C13-1548-4582-B626-42328097B178.jpeg
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3692
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: October 2022

Post by tireman4 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 10:19 am

The last day of October....
00
FXUS64 KHGX 311126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

.Short Term [Through Tomorrow Night]...

Halloween 2022 promises to be a nice one with near normal
temperatures and a mix of clouds and sun. After a cool morning with
temperatures generally in the 50s, afternoon temperatures are
expected to warm into the mid/upper 70s. A few spots could briefly
reach the low 80s during the warmest hours of the afternoon.
Rainfall chances will be increasing overnight (more on that in the
next paragraph). However, we still expect that most areas will
remain dry during the hours before midnight meaning a pleasant
evening for any spooky festivities. Temps around sunset are expected
to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Trick or treat temps should
slowly fall through the 60s.

At the synoptic level we are watching a large mid/upper trough over
the Desert SW and Northern Mexico. Increasing mid/upper level PVA
ahead of the eastward progressing trough will result in large scale
ascent over southern and southeastern Texas by tonight into Tuesday.
In addition, PWATs will be on the rise today climbing to around 1"
after sunset. Near the coast, PWAT values could exceed 1.5" by
tomorrow morning. These factors are expected to bring a decent
chance of rain to much of the region on Tuesday. PoPs begin to
increase from SW to NE after midnight tonight with the best chance
of rain occurring Tuesday morning and early afternoon.

Models are being a tad tricksy when it comes to how far north the
rainfall will extend. What we can say is that the highest chance of
rain will be over the southern half of the CWA, particularly south
of I-10. This is due to the higher PWATs as well as the presence of
a coastal trough. Some of our hi-res guidance suggest that offshore
convection could hoard moisture to the south, minimizing rainfall
over land areas and especially in our northern counties. Global
models beg to differ indicating a more promising chance of rain in
our northern CWA. The NBM felt like an appropriate compromise,
resulting in little to no changes in the rainfall / PoPs forecast
north of the Houston metro. Meanwhile, we have increased PoPs
somewhat from the Houston metro points south to the coast. As far as
specific numbers are concerned, tomorrow`s PoPs range from as low as
10-20 percent in our northern most CWA to about 50 percent in
Houston and 60-70 percent near the immediate coast. PoPs will
decrease by Tuesday evening as the system continues its E to ENE
motion into the southern Mississippi River Valley.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

The early week storm system will continue moving to the east and
east-northeast and out of our area on Wednesday, but lingering moisture
might result in some showers in/around the Matagorda Bay area and off
the coast. Wednesday night through Thursday night looks quiet (no rain)
as surface high pressure ridges into the area from the northeast.
By Friday, a strengthening onshore flow returns to the area and rising
moisture levels in combination with daytime heating and some lift will
bring rain chances back into the forecast. These chances increase into
Friday night and Saturday as a slow moving cold front approaches the
area from the west. Some uncertainty exits with the timing and speed
of this front, and it is possible that rain chances could continue into
the Saturday night through Sunday morning time period. We`ll get back
into a dry forecast once the front moves through the area and off the
coast.

Highs in the 70s/80s on Wednesday warm into the 80s on Thursday and
Friday. With the arrival of the front and rains on Saturday, highs should
fall back into the 70s over the weekend. It currently looks like we`ll
be back into the 80s on Monday.

For lows, a warming trend can be expected Thursday (upper 50s/60s) and
Friday (60s) followed by a cool down with the front over the weekend
and into the start of next week (back into the 50s/60s). 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Though VFR conditions prevail in most areas this morning, patchy
fog is resulting in localized IFR visibility. Any fog is expected
to break within a couple hours after sunrise. The rest of the day
will feature light winds and high level scattered to broken
clouds. Skies are expected to become more OVC tonight. By tomorrow
morning, ceilings will likely lower (though still forecast to be
MVFR to VFR) with an increasing chance of rain. Best chance of
rain will be from Houston to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Light winds and low seas will prevail today. The next storm system will
move into the region late tonight and Tuesday and will bring strengthening
winds and seas to the area as well as showers and possible thunderstorms.
Caution flags will likely be needed and advisories will be possible
Tuesday through Tuesday night. Conditions are expected to improve around
midweek as this system moves off to the east. Strengthening southeast
winds and rising seas Thursday night through Friday night will likely
lead to caution flags and might need advisory flags. The next cold
front should arrive sometime over the weekend. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 56 73 56 / 0 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 79 58 71 57 / 0 20 40 0
Galveston (GLS) 75 66 73 66 / 0 30 60 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...87

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 4591
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: October 2022

Post by jasons2k » Mon Oct 31, 2022 12:20 pm

Update from Jeff:

Next storm system to impact Texas late tonight into Tuesday.

Upper level trough over the SW US will move eastward today into SW TX and then east across TX on Tuesday. At the surface, a coastal trough will form along the lower TX coast later today into tonight and begin to advect moisture across coastal TX. Position of this trough near and offshore should result in the majority of the rainfall occurring off the coast with showers making it as far inland as I-10. Lift increases through late tonight, and expect showers to develop and spread inland from the coast after midnight and into early Tuesday. Coastal trough will move east on Tuesday well off the upper TX coast and expect widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters with scattered showers over SE TX south of I-10.

Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible along the coast with amounts generally less than .50 of an inch near I-10 and less than .10 of an inch north of HWY 105.

Upper level system will mostly be east of SE TX on Wednesday and a short wave ridge will build over the southern plains ahead of the next (more potent) storm system due to arrive this weekend. Southerly winds will begin to increase on Thursday as surface low pressure develops in the southern high plains. This will result in a warm and muggy air mass moving northward off the western Gulf of Mexico late this week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Friday into Saturday as a slow moving cold front moves into the region. Current thinking is that the front should reach the coast sometime on Saturday, but models have been trending slower with this system, so showers and storms could linger into Sunday. Factors appear to be in place for some severe weather with this front, but being several days away, lots of finer details to work out between now and then.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

Post Reply