October 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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What shall it bring? Tricks? Treats? Cooler weather? Tropical Mischief? So we shall see.
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DoctorMu
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Likely more summer... :(
Scott747
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Hard to imagine imagine a system from the deep tropics making it this far considering the time of year but there certainly growing model support for a significant system in the nw Caribbean late in September with long term track up in the air.
Stratton20
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GFS went nuts on its latest run for the GOM and the 12z Euro is similar, im not that concerned about a texas threat similar to what Scott747 says, but this is something that will be needed to watch closely, to have two of the best and most dependable models showing a major hurricane somewhere in the gulf in about 9-10 days is at least of somewhat concern
Stormlover2020
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Why wouldn’t u be concerned?? Delta was a close counter in 2020, it’s still sept, late sept and early October texas is still in play
Cpv17
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:47 pm Why wouldn’t u be concerned?? Delta was a close counter in 2020, it’s still sept, late sept and early October texas is still in play
I’m not really concerned about it. Fairly confident that if it does get into the Gulf it’ll probably go somewhere east of New Orleans but it’s worth paying attention to. Low odds that it would make it this far west in late September.
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This first image of the 500mb (upper air) pattern is the first and middle part of the upcoming week. Fiona is in the middle there, and these storms typically like to find a weakness since these highs are separated,Fiona found it, which is why it is moving north.
Now what usually happens in these cases is a tropical system will find the weakness, and then to equalize things, high pressure will build back behind it. As disturbance three moves across the Caribbean, it will not be able to find a weakness and continue to pressure west which is a good example in this other upper-level example which would be about 10 days out.
While there is a trough across the Northeast United States, the high to the south, at this time, is expected to be strong enough to steer it west-northwest. After that, it would be anyone’s guess.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 its simply to early to say that, I think we need to stay on guard just in case, honestly everyone on the gulf coast needs to be alert lol
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:23 pm Cpv17 its simply to early to say that, I think we need to stay on guard just in case, honestly everyone on the gulf coast needs to be alert lol
I still stand by what I say lol climo suggests more a northern or eastern Gulf threat. I’d be pretty shocked if it went towards us. Stranger things have happened and never say never but yeah I’d be shocked if we got a threat to Texas in late September.
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DoctorMu
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Yeah, it would be tricky. The gaps in the upper level highs are going to be small.

We have a clear omega block now, but weakness in late September and early October.

It's very early, but yet another LATX solution would not be a surprise.
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DoctorMu
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Interesting. The 12z Euro also has a GoM hurricane (Cat 2-3), but more of an eastern solution.

Still, eyes should be on the Gulf in about 10-12 days for some mischief.
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mcheer23
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Invest 98L now....
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tireman4
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As I stated before, the next upcoming days and weeks will be interesting.
Cromagnum
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Bets on first cold front that actually brings rain? I'm gonna go ahead and say Halloween.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:50 am Bets on first cold front that actually brings rain? I'm gonna go ahead and say Halloween.
I doubt it’ll be anything significant. If it does rain it’ll probably just be a quick shot broken line with light to moderate showers not really resulting in much.
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Katdaddy
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Perfect weather to welcome in October 2022. Upper 50s will feel great tomorrow morning. This evening's HOU-GAL AFD is singing the song:

♬ Summer has come and passed ♬
♬ Triple digits can never last ♬
♬ Wake me up when September ends ♬
Cpv17
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Katdaddy wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:55 pm Perfect weather to welcome in October 2022. Upper 50s will feel great tomorrow morning. This evening's HOU-GAL AFD is singing the song:

♬ Summer has come and passed ♬
♬ Triple digits can never last ♬
♬ Wake me up when September ends ♬
Lol that’s Green Day
Stratton20
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Models are starting to sniff out a stronger fall front around the 10/11th, bigger push of Canadian air
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DoctorMu
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78°F and dry. This is more like it. If it's going to be dry and it's Fall, let it be.

Compared with summer, loving the 80s and low DP. With the sun angle lower in now early Oct., at least there is less watering.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:46 pm 78°F and dry. This is more like it. If it's going to be dry and it's Fall, let it be.

Compared with summer, loving the 80s and low DP. With the sun angle lower in now early Oct., at least there is less watering.
It’s going to most likely be dry till spring.
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