October 2022

[jasons2k]

I’m now experiencing my longest rain-free streak since 2011.

[Stratton20]

Their is hope for rain!

[Cpv17]

Their is hope for rain!

That’s quite beautiful

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 honestly kinda surprised how fast they pulled the trigger on above normal precipitation for SE Texas and the whole state in general lol, fingers crossed for that rain and at least some cooler temps!

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 honestly kinda surprised how fast they pulled the trigger on above normal precipitation for SE Texas and the whole state in general lol, fingers crossed for that rain and at least some cooler temps!

Hell it could still change being a good week to 10 days out. The SOI isn’t favorable for much rain and screams drought.

[Iceresistance]

Their is hope for rain!

Also a slight risk of Heavy Rainfall on the 13th to the 16th to boot.

[DoctorMu]

A definite maybe on rain next Wednesday/Thursday front per GFS, DMD, ICON.

I'm about to give up and start looking into lawn cactii.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 061151
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
651 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

A little more low level moisture will be present today, in
particular along areas south of the I-10 corridor, as a surface low
pressure moves into the western Gulf of Mexico. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this feature is expected to remain
mostly along the offshore waters. In addition, with subsidence
persisting across Southeast TX and mid levels being fairly dry, rain
activity inland will be limited. On Friday, moisture will continue
to push into the region, increasing PWs to 1.1-1.3 inches by the
afternoon hours, resulting in partly cloudy skies for much of the
day. This gradual rise in moisture will also result in a subtle
increase in temperatures. The highs today will be in the low 90s
inland and in the upper 80s along the coasts, and increase a degree
or two on Friday. The lows will also follow this pattern with lows
overnight in the upper 50 to upper 60s, slightly higher Friday
overnight. But the good news is that a very weak cold front moving
through Friday night into early Saturday morning, will stop this
warming trend, and bring us back to highs in the upper 80s to low
90s for the weekend. Cheers to the "Ouuu Yeahhh" feels again this
weekend .

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

By Saturday morning, a weak cold front will have pushed offshore
with surface high pressure building into the Central Plains and an
850mb high directly overhead. This is more of a backdoor front with
the bulk of the cold/dry air remaining well north and east of
Southeast TX and the predominant winds behind it being northeasterly
to easterly. Nevertheless it will knock temperatures down a few
degrees, so we`ll get to enjoy highs mainly in the upper 80s versus
the low 90s and lows in the upper 50s/mid 60s versus the mid to
upper 60s. It ain`t much, but it`s honest work!

An upper level cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula will keep the
synoptic pattern relatively unchanged over the weekend. On Monday,
it becomes embedded in the flow aloft leading to southwesterly flow
as ridging makes a comeback. Combine this with onshore flow
returning on Tuesday as surface high pressure pushes eastward
enough, and we have an ever so slight warming trend with western
locations reaching the low 90s again beginning Monday. On the
other hand, the moisture trend is definitely an upward one. PW
values increase to near and maybe even exceeding the 90th
percentile (~1.84") by Wednesday with an assist from deeper
tropical moisture pushing in. As a result, Wednesday and Thursday
are setting up to be the best chance of rain we`ve had in quite a
while. In fact, rain on Wednesday (October 12th) would land just
under a month since the last time we`ve had measurable rainfall
in the City of Houston (September 17th). And for those that are
curious, it`s been since September 7th for Aggieland and September
15th for Galveston. So you can expect today`s drought monitor to
become a bit more colorful...

Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...
#TeamFROPA

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Isolated areas of shallow fog across causing MVFR-IFR vis for
LBX/SGR will dissipate from 13-15Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions
expected across all TAF sites. E-SE winds will pick up in the
afternoon but remain at 10 KTS or less. Winds become light and VRB
again by late evening.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

The period of benign conditions (light winds/low seas) continues
through Friday night. A weak cold front pushes offshore early
Saturday leading to moderate northeasterly to easterly winds and 3-4
foot seas that prevail through Sunday. At least caution flags will
be needed over the weekend as a result. Occasionally moderate
onshore flow returns early next week leading to 3-5 foot seas and
the potential for another round of caution flags.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 62 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 72 86 74 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

Batiste is a funny one, I tell you.

Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...
#TeamFROPA

Batiste

[DoctorMu]

#TeamFROPA haha

If we're going to live in a d*amn desert, as least it could cool off...

[Stratton20]

Looks like the GFS wants to take 91L’s circulation into the BOC and trap it there, that could help to send additional moisture towards the texas coast next week though

[jasons2k]

Jeff Linder alludes to it in his latest update. I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Stratton20]

Unfortunately after looking at the models again, it doesnt really matter if 91l’s circulation re enters the BOC, it will get trapped down their as the front coming down will block it, that essentially blocks the moisture from coming up to texas as well, looking like a dry frontal passage unfortunately

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Today is World Smile Day, which lines up perfectly since most of us
smile ear to ear when we hear the phrase "cold front" this time of
the year. However, this cold front in particular won`t be notable
with the bulk of the cold and dry air staying well to the north and
east of us within the upper level trough near the Great Lakes.
Since the front doesn`t pass through till later in the day, we`ll
still deal with above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs
in the low 90s for most locations. No rain is expected to accompany
FROPA. PW values will range from 1.0"-1.3" (right around the climo
mean: 1.28"), but the lowest ~2km will be fairly dry with LowRH in
high-res forecast soundings generally around 35%-40%. The end result
is likely virga or sprinkles at most, but we`ll for sure see an
increase in cloud cover lasting into the overnight hours.

The increase in cloud cover will lead to Friday night`s temperatures
being warmer than Thursday night`s as most locations bottom out in
the mid to upper 60s with low 70s in the Houston metro area. The
cloud cover begins to scatter out from north to south early Saturday
morning as drier air aloft filters in as an 850mb high slides in
overhead and surface high pressure centers over the Central Plains.
Dry air heats efficiently, so Saturday will still be fairly warm
with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s. Temperatures will generally be
a degree or two "cooler" than Friday, so not much but it`s
something! For Saturday night, we`ll see temperatures about 3-5
degrees cooler than Friday night`s with lows in the low to mid 60s
with some upper 50s near the Piney Woods area.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

An upper level trough positioned over the AZ/NM region Sunday,
will weaken as it moves eastward and approaches the TX Panhandle
Monday. But with limited surface moisture (PWs of 1.0-1.2 inches)
and lift to work with, along with fairly dry mid levels, not
expected much rain to develop across Southeast TX. So our best
chance for rain still looks to occur next Wednesday with the
arrival of higher low level moisture associated to Tropical
Depression Thirteen moving into the eastern coast of Mexico. We
will probably see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
starting over the local waters Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning and expand inland during the day Wednesday. Another round
of scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Thursday, as a cold front moves through Southeast TX. Rain chances
wane Thursday night as the front continues to make it`s way
towards the Gulf waters.

As for temperatures, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s can be
expected throughout the work week, with Wednesday being the
warmest. The lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s inland and
in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coasts for most days, except
Wednesday overnight where lows will rise into the mid 60s to low
70s ahead of the upcoming cold front. Look forward to cooler
temperatures in the wake of the cold front.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

VFR conditions expected today with light VRB winds for most of SE
TX. A weak cold front will push through today, but dry air and
subsidence aloft will limit RA chances.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Light east to northeast winds expected and seas of 1 to 2 feet
expected today. A weak cold front will move over the local waters
late Friday into early Saturday, and will result in stronger
easterly winds Saturday, likely resulting in SCEC conditions
through Sunday morning. Light to occasionally moderate easterly
winds and seas of 3 to occasionally 5 feet can be expected Sunday
into mid week and may require Caution flags from time to time.

Rounds of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as Tropical Depression
Thirteen moves into the eastern coast of Mexico and associated
surge of moisture moves over the local area. The chance of rain
will continue into Thursday as a stronger cold front makes its way
across Southeast TX.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 65 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 92 69 91 64 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 73 84 73 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03

[Stratton20]

12z Euro is stronger with the trough and its associated front so their is a bigger cooldown associated with it, also 91L gets further N into the NW GOM to the east of deep south texas before making a sharp turn east towards florida due to the trough

[DoctorMu]

Euro is most aggressive with rain chances and temp drop in the middle of next week. CMC is next. I hope GFS is wrong.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu the CMC is even more aggressive with the front compared to the Euro, I want nothing to do with the GFS, that model has been absolutely atrocious this year

[Stratton20]

Models have backed off significantly on the front, don’t expect much, typical but not surprising, though some moisture from JULIA gets into the BOC and tries to redevelop somewhat, heads towards upper texas coast or Louisiana on the latest euro

[Cpv17]

Models have backed off significantly on the front, don’t expect much, typical but not surprising, though some moisture from JULIA gets into the BOC and tries to redevelop somewhat, heads towards upper texas coast or Louisiana on the latest euro

You’ll get your front eventually lol

[DoctorMu]

Models have backed off significantly on the front, don’t expect much, typical but not surprising, though some moisture from JULIA gets into the BOC and tries to redevelop somewhat, heads towards upper texas coast or Louisiana on the latest euro

It's back on GFS 12z.