October 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Starting to see convection concentrate offshore…
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Cromagnum
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Missed 100% of anything that came through last night except for about a little 30 second band. Everything is offshore or right at the coast.

The line coming later looks to me like it's further west than models had it so may come through and hour or two later than initially forecast.
txbear
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Hello darkness my old friend….
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jasons2k
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Yeah there’s no way I’m getting anywhere close to 3” with this. Models tease again as usual.
suprdav2
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.02" here in Cypress. Sigh.......
Cromagnum
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Unless that line fills out and slows down over here it's gonna be 20-30 minutes of heavy rain. Folks will be lucky to score 0.5 - 1.0 inch if that.
JDsGN
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Its not over yet but it seems like every "major" rain event predicted (which with the lack of rain even 1-2" is major) over the past few years is usually a bust in timing, rainfall amount/coverage, intensity or all three. Even when its a high confidence forecast it usually doesn't pan out. Here's hoping this one holds out. My parents live in a red swath of extreme drought in Austin County and they have been showing the 2+" range for days down over them so I'm really hoping they see something significant. They have a pond on the property that ive never seen dry out completely and its getting pretty close at this point.
Cromagnum
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And power is out at my house despite absolutely nothing going on weather wise.
Stratton20
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I wouldnt be surprised to see that line fall apart as it approaches from the west, another typical busted event by the models
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djmike
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Got about .25” overnight. Unless that line is going to drop 2.75” later, which I seriously doubt it, then once again, we get nowhere near what was forecasted. I agree, it seems like forecasted models have been waaaaaay off or complete busts the last year or so. Even during cane season.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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don
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Some of yall are using that term "bust" way too loosly these days. The MCS has developed as forecast this is not a bust. Just because some models have shown the upper end of what is possible if everything came together when it comes to qpf amounts(3-5 inches). The "official" forecast has always been for 1-2 inches of rain.At least wait till the MCS passes through before calling an event a bust. LOL

Also to those saying the events the last couple of years have underperformed qpf wise. Yall are right 👍the background state of the atmosphere has not supported overperformance of rainfall. As a result we are in a multi year drought similar to 2010-2013. Though not as bad as that drought was.The switch will eventually flip again though like it did in 2015-2019.
Cromagnum
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Models have been decent at predicting rain vs no rain I guess. I think they were far more accurate 10 years ago though.
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DoctorMu
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0.08 with last night's streamer cells - that's all...although south of us got some decent rain.. We have a broken line of showers, T-storms approaching. My guess is we'll get about 0.5 inches. Maybe a little more.
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tireman4
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A line of rain is coming
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jasons2k
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There is also the ULL behind the line.
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Stratton20
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the ULL will be ejecting off to the NE, this line is our last opportunity for rainfall
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don
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 28, 2022 11:14 am the ULL will be ejecting off to the NE, this line is our last opportunity for rainfall
No its not our last opportunity for rainfall today. Models have been showing since yesterday a secondary line of storms coming through tonight as the ULL passes,especially along and north of I-10.
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Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 11-09-57 Models NAM 3km CONUS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-10-28 at 11-08-49 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
Cpv17
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Next decent chance of rain after this will be on Tuesday but it’s gonna be a close call as to where it sets up. It might be just off the coast again. Then possibly next Friday/Saturday there could be another opportunity. But yeah given the background state we should go on the low end of what models are saying. So for example, if they’re saying 1-2”, majority of us will get 1” rather than 2”. The switch will flip and will be the other way around at some point but that’s probably still several months away.
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DoctorMu
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:57 am A line of rain is coming
We're in it now. Perhaps 1-2 inches of rain could happen.
Cpv17
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I’ve already shifted my focus to Tuesday. This is what the 0z Euro showed:

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Yes please! :lol:
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