November 2022

[Stratton20]

And the GFS basically says what stronger front? As usual the models are struggling, has highs in the low 50’s next weekend, I think upper 30’s ( northern counties) to low 40’s is more plausible given that airmass behind that front is significantly colder and the EPO is at its most negative , GFS doing GFS things

[Cpv17]

Tomorrow’s rain chance doesn’t really look like much except for coastal areas and points east of Houston towards Beaumont once again.

[Cpv17]

And the GFS basically says what stronger front? As usual the models are struggling, has highs in the low 50’s next weekend, I think upper 30’s ( northern counties) to low 40’s is more plausible given that airmass behind that front is significantly colder and the EPO is at its most negative , GFS doing GFS things

We’re entering the stage where models begin to lose the cold air to only be outdone by the mesoscale models when they get into range and the globals will eventually go somewhat back to their original solution they had from the get go.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep, seems like it happens that way every time with these cold air masses

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yep, seems like it happens that way every time with these cold air masses

Never fails. You’d figure by now they could fix that but guess not.

[DoctorMu]

Tomorrow’s rain chance doesn’t really look like much except for coastal areas and points east of Houston towards Beaumont once again.

Yep. The Mesos all have light rain, expect along the coast - where it is progged to be > 1 inch.

1.48 inches of rain in CLL on Friday while we were in Houston....so I'm OK with a light shower. I hope it clears out before the late afternoon.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141224
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

Good WAA earlier this morning and overcast skies has gifted us
warmer overnight to early morning lows, with many placed keeping
temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. As a matter of fact, the
temperatures over Galveston airport at 3 AM this morning is 61
degrees...while yesterday`s high was 59 degrees. The WAA will
continue this morning as a coastal low and warm front is to
strengthen as it moves from the Lower TX coast and into the Mid to
Upper TX coast. Showers will move in from the west southwest as
low level moisture quickly rises during the morning hours.
Activity will increase and expand over much of Southeast TX with
PWs of 1.4 to 1.8 inches spreading across most areas along and
south of the I-10 corridor in the afternoon as the coastal low
moves over or near our coastal sectors and local waters.

Along the mid to upper levels, a trough will eject eastward and move
across the Southern Plains during the day, and develop a low
pressure and associated cold front over Central TX. Southeast TX
will then be wedged within the 850 MB jet containing wind of 40 to
50 knots and will also have strong upper level winds spreading into
the region. The cold front is progged to move into the northern and
northwestern portions of Southeast TX by mid afternoon, which will
help push the coastal low and warm front east southeastward into the
nearshore waters adjacent to Galveston Bay during the late afternoon
to evening hours. Therefore, areas north of I-10 may be limited with
how much moisture actually expands northward, but could still see
some PWs of 1.2 to 1.5 inches making it up there by late morning or
early afternoon. But most of the 60-70 degree dewpoints seem to not
make it north of I-10. The higher MLCAPE values (300-1000 J/kg) are
still expected to be mainly along the southern counties and the bays
and Gulf waters. So much of the thunderstorm activity could be
expected/limited over areas south of I-10. With strong mid level
winds, good lapse rates ahead of the frontal boundary, we could
see some strong to severe storms capable of producing heavy
rainfall and strong winds along the warm sector mainly over the
waters as well as along the Brazoria, Galveston, Galveston Bay and
Chambers region. Some isolated tornadoes and waterspouts will
also be possible. Main time frame for these storms look to be
around 20-00Z. SPC continues a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms over the southern two thirds of Southeast TX, where
there is a low chance of tornadoes and strong damaging winds
confined to the southern counties. The chance for hail is placed
over the southern two thirds of Southeast TX. In addition, WPC has
placed a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall over the southern
counties as well.

The front is expected to be moving into the local waters in the
evening and though rain chances end once the front passes through,
strong gusty winds will develop behind it so make sure to secure
outdoor loose/lightweight objects. Skies will gradually clear Tuesday
as cooler and drier air moves into the region, but will remain
breezy for much of the day. Temperatures Tuesday night will dip
once again into the mid 30s to low 40s range inland, with some of
our northeastern counties possibly near 32 degrees again.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Mon Nov 14 202Both global models show2

The Heat Miser will once again be displeased with the long range
AFD due to the continuation of a more winter like regime through
the end of the forecast period. Looking at the mid/upper levels,
one will notice lower pressure height anomalies being depicted in
both global deterministic and ensemble data. At the surface we
expect predominantly northeasterly flow thanks to a sluggish
eastward progressing high pressure system. High temperatures Wed-
Fri are expected to be in the mid/upper 50s with lows generally in
the mid 30s to low 40s. Wednesday and Thursday may dip to or
slightly below freezing in our northern counties where clearer
skies and lighter winds could enhance radiational cooling.
Meanwhile, areas near the immediate coast are expected to only dip
into the mid/upper 40s. It is worth mentioning that enhanced mid
level moisture on Thursday could provide sufficient overcast to
keep highs a few degrees cooler than currently predicted.
Uncertainty exists regarding the amount of overcast we will
experience. There is also a chance of a few showers near the coast
on Thursday.

The forecast becomes more interesting by the weekend. A short wave
trough moving across northern Mexico on Thursday and Friday may
bring enhanced PVA into the equation over southern and coastal
Texas by Saturday. When combined with potential rising PWATs and a
residual baroclinic zone offshore, it is no surprise that global
models are showing another coastal low/trough this weekend.
Confidence is quite low regarding the formation location and track
of the possible low. 0Z NBM PoPs and QPF are somewhat
conservative, particularly near the coast, when compared to the
ECMWF and GFS. However, given the uncertainty the NBM felt the
appropriate way to lean for now.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

Very messy TAF forecast today with conditions going from VFR to
MVFR this morning, to IFR-MVFR this afternoon and continuing into
Tues morning. First, a coastal low will move E-NE across the
southern portions of the CWA and coastal Gulf waters during the
day, followed by a cold front pushing through behind it later in
the afternoon/evening. Expect areas of showers to begin to move
into the W and SW sectors shortly after sunrise. Activity will
expand over the rest of SE TX as the morning progresses.
Thunderstorms will develop late morning into the afternoon hours
mostly affecting HOU, LBX, GLS. Some may move N into IAH. Some of
these storms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds,
heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, hail and possible isolated
tornadoes/waterspouts. The cold front is expected to push into
the coastal waters this evening, and though rain chances end,
strong gusty N winds will develop in it`s wake. Cigs will slowly
lift and scatter out Tues morning but gusty winds remain for much
of the day.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

Winds will increase from the southeast this morning into the early
afternoon as a materializing coastal low pushes northeastward over
our waters. Small craft advisories are now in effect for the Gulf
waters and will be in effect for Galveston Bay later this
morning. The system will result in the development of showers and
thunderstorms...a few of which could be strong to severe. Higher
winds and seas are likely in and near strong thunderstorms. Best
chance of thunderstorms will be late this morning through the
evening hours.

A cold front in the system`s wake will push offshore tonight.
There will likely be a period of winds below small craft levels
this afternoon and early evening. However, winds will easily reach
advisory levels once the front pushes offshore tonight. Fairly
unsettled marine conditions are expected for a good part of the
week including elevated winds and seas. There is a potential for
low water levels in the bays around low tide times Tuesday and
Wednesday. We`ll also be monitoring the potential for higher than
normal water levels heading into the weekend.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 53 41 53 37 / 90 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 59 44 55 39 / 90 40 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 50 58 46 / 90 60 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ330.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 11 AM CST this morning
for GMZ335.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.

&&

[brazoriatx]

When is the next cold front

[Stratton20]

Brazoriatx next front should arrive by thursday or so, and this one looks to be even stronger, highs in the low to upper 40’s seem like a good bet, the NWS is too warm right now

[TXWeatherMan]

Brazoriatx next front should arrive by thursday or so, and this one looks to be even stronger, highs in the low to upper 40’s seem like a good bet, the NWS is too warm right now

I thought we had another front coming through this evening?

[don]

Brazoriatx next front should arrive by thursday or so, and this one looks to be even stronger, highs in the low to upper 40’s seem like a good bet, the NWS is too warm right now

I thought we had another front coming through this evening?

Yes a front will be coming through today but acting more as a reinforcement of the cold air already in place.With a stronger front later this week as a large trough digs south across the country.

[DoctorMu]

Yesterday was glorious with temps. in the high 50s and pure sunshine.

After today, it's a week of sunshine with coolish weather. A/C and sprinkler system are OFF. Could not be better from my POV.

[Stratton20]

TXWeatherMan no the next front comes through sometime on thursday/friday

[Cromagnum]

Barely a drizzle here today.

[JDsGN]

TXWeatherMan no the next front comes through sometime on thursday/friday

There is a front coming through this afternoon to push this "warm front"/coastal low back out into the gulf.

[Stratton20]

JDsGN i meant the reinforcing stronger front later in the week, yep their is a front coming through tonight but it wont really affect temperatures that much

[don]

There's some heavy rain about to move into the metro area

[DoctorMu]

Some isolated cells are bringing more rain than expected. The trough and reinforcing front should begin to clear out about 5 pm in CLL and 6 pm in HOU. There is potential for strong storms along the coast.

[don]

Its pouring over here!The heavy rain is further inland than what most models were showing.

[Stratton20]

Steady light rain here with a high around 47, a good 4-6 degrees colder than what the models forecasted today