November 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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Yep, the epic Orchard Park, NY 77" snowfall! The photos of the snow bands on social media look similar to our intense tropical thundershowers......a quarter of a mile makes all the difference.
Cpv17
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Iceresistance wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:04 pm Parts of New York are having a historic snowfall! Orchard Park has recorded 77 inches! That is a historic record that is likely very hard to break! :shock: :o
That’s more snow then I’ll have here in my lifetime lol
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Ptarmigan
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Katdaddy wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:17 pm Yep, the epic Orchard Park, NY 77" snowfall! The photos of the snow bands on social media look similar to our intense tropical thundershowers......a quarter of a mile makes all the difference.
The lake effect snows remind me of core rains. Heavy rain in a small area.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:23 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:10 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:26 pm

I figured it was cuz of the Aggies game but I’m not even sure if they’re playing this weekend. Don’t really follow them too much.
11 am game against UMass.
Should be a cakewalk win. Even though they’re having a horrible year that should still be an easy dub.
It was more like a cake or pie in the face win. So awful - we didn't get anywhere close to covering the Vegas line. It's going to be a slaughter against LSU the Tigers are going to dip this turkey of a season into the deep fryer!

Please, send me 10%, 2%, 1% of Jimbo's salary! Fire John Sharp and Jimbo. ;) :lol:
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 10:30 pm
Katdaddy wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:17 pm Yep, the epic Orchard Park, NY 77" snowfall! The photos of the snow bands on social media look similar to our intense tropical thundershowers......a quarter of a mile makes all the difference.
The lake effect snows remind me of core rains. Heavy rain in a small area.
They looked like a Snow Haboob. :lol: Downtown Buffalo got nearly nothing while the suburbs south and east were crushed.
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don
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Both the 0Z GFS and CMC have come in more aggressive with the Thanksgiving storm system.Both show a potent textbook "bowling ball" low.Producing widespread storms across the state Thanksgiving and Black Friday.Both models have also greatly increases qpf amounts.
Attachments
Screenshot 2022-11-20 at 22-41-05 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-11-20 at 22-34-21 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-11-20 at 22-34-34 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20
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No thanks to the bowling bowl solution by the GFS and CMC
Iceresistance
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 10:47 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 10:30 pm
Katdaddy wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:17 pm Yep, the epic Orchard Park, NY 77" snowfall! The photos of the snow bands on social media look similar to our intense tropical thundershowers......a quarter of a mile makes all the difference.
The lake effect snows remind me of core rains. Heavy rain in a small area.
They looked like a Snow Haboob. :lol: Downtown Buffalo got nearly nothing while the suburbs south and east were crushed.
Orchard Park is now up to 80 inches of snow, Buffalo did get 3 feet of snow per NWS/WPC.
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snowman65
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when is our warm/dry winter suppise to start. All Im seeing is cool and rainy. Thanksgiving looks like a complete washout.
Stratton20
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snowman65 winter is not got going to be warm and dry lol
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snowman65
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:12 am snowman65 winter is not got going to be warm and dry lol
I hope not...
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:32 am
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:12 am snowman65 winter is not got going to be warm and dry lol
I hope not...
Better odds for cold this winter than warm.
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Yes, looking ahead to december changes are coming as the EPO and NAO look to go negative, PNA neutral to negative as well, Already on the Euro and GFS runs we are seeing signs of potentially yet another very cold airmass entering the US sometime in the first week of december, this warmup ahead will be brief
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:06 am when is our warm/dry winter suppise to start. All Im seeing is cool and rainy. Thanksgiving looks like a complete washout.
Literally every variable out there is screaming below normal temps at the moment once we hit meteorological Winter
Team #NeverSummer
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jasons2k
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The weather in Maui was perfect. Came back to this crap. This weather sucks.
Cpv17
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The CMC looks a lot better than the GFS for the next system. The GFS looks to be too progressive with it and pushes the higher totals well north and east of us.
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don
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The 12Z EURO has caved to the GFS CMC and ICON models,for the Thanksgiving storm.(shows widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches for most of us)
Attachments
Screenshot 2022-11-21 at 12-23-23 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-11-21 at 12-24-24 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
brazoriatx
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So no smoking the turkey on the pit Thursday huh? Is it a complete washout?
Stratton20
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I wish that dry slot on the euro was over my area, always gotta have a storm system during a holiday lol
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Those maps look like the system is coming in on Friday and not Thursday. If that's the case, I couldn't care less as I'm not battling the shopping crowds.
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