November 2022

[DoctorMu]

Sight chance of severe weather as progged Friday am. Time of day should largely dampen the threat.

The front clears through Saturday during the day...

...then comes back as a warm front. Really? 80°+ Monday - Thursday of next week.

Next Friday/Saturday finally brings in some cooler air that persists...


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022

We begin today on the murky side for many communities across the
CWA. For areas near the coast, this murkiness is in the form of
low/mid level clouds and a few isolated rain showers. Across our
central and especially northern counties, the murkiness is defined
by areas of dense fog. The fog will break as the morning progresses
while a chance of coastal showers will linger throughout the day.
Meanwhile in the mid/upper levels we will have increased ridging
through tomorrow. In addition there will be a gradually tightening
surface pressure gradient between a high off the U.S. East Coast and
falling surface pressure over the plains. As a result, winds will
begin to veer to a more southeasterly direction this evening before
increasing on Thursday. Though increasing mid/upper level dams will
generally act to suppress PoPs, the resulting PWAT enhancement from
increasing onshore flow will bring a chance of a few rain showers on
Thursday with the best chance of precip occurring over our western
counties.

As far as temperatures are concerned, the increased ridging and
onshore flow will insure a warming trend with rising humidity.
Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 70s to near 80
today. Overnight temps will be quite mild for early November,
ranging from mid 60s to low 70s south of I-10 and low to mid 60s
north of I-10. As mid/upper pressure heights and low/mid level WAA
increase tomorrow, expect afternoon temps to surpass the 80 degree
mark for all locations minus the immediate coast. A few spots could
reach the mid 80s. With dew points in the 70s, Thursday will feel
quite muggy. Perhaps a more summery feel than the calendar suggests.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022

30-40kt low level jet will be transporting 2" PW air from the
western Gulf into the region Fri in advance of an approaching
mid-upper trof to our west. Large scale lift will be on the
increase thru the day and anticipate we`ll see a corresponding
increase in precip coverage during the afternoon. Developing band
of shra/tstms along the Pacific frontal boundary to our northwest
should be expanding southward later in the day as it encounters
the moist airmass (along the the aid of being in the RRQ of a
ssw-nne oriented upper jet). This band of showers and storms
should be pushing across the region Friday night and off the coast
before sunrise Saturday. Best dynamics/forcing appear to be more
favorable the further north of I-10 that one gets, but if given
enough instability or mesoscale forcing you can`t really rule out
the potential for some isolated strong storms anywhere just yet.
In regards to rainfall, 0.5-1.5" looks to be a decent estimate
areawide. The system looks fairly progressive, so although there
might be some heavy downpours at times, the cells/line should be
moving a a decent clip to mitigate much in the way of ff concerns
other than the common localized street ponding.

Things dry out in the wake of the front mid-late Saturday morning.
The boundary will eventually make its way back north as a warm
front Sunday & Monday, so look for a return of cloud cover and
isolated rain chances as this occurs. Warm, humid conditions will
then continue into early next week with some mid level ridging
stretching from Mexico into the Tennessee Valley. 47

[don]

Yep that's the question how progressive will the system be. There will be a greater chance of severe weather if the system comes in during the evening hours,verses overnight.Models are still in some disagreement on timing.If i had to guess on what areas will have the greatest threat of seeing severe weather it would be central/north Texas.But parameters will definitely be available for severe weather in SE Texas also.But severe weather is more conditional on timing and instability down here in SE Texas than up in north/central Texas.

[Stratton20]

Severe weather potential on friday followed by * Potentially much colder weather in the 10-12 day period* lots of interesting things to talk about in the weather world ahead

[tireman4]

Many high schools in the DFW Metroplex are moving their games to Thursday because of the threat of severe weather.


Matt Stepp
@Matt_Stepp817
So I'm basically counting 195 UIL 11man games scheduled for Thur night....a typical Thursday slate during the season has about 60 games total #txhsfb
@dctf

[snowman65]

Did we fast forward to spring??

[don]

Did we fast forward to spring??

Severe weather is pretty common in October and November in the south.In fact SE Texas on average gets more tornadoes in the Fall than it does in the Spring.Its just in the last decade the severe weather season that we typically get in Fall has not really been as active as normal.Climatology wise the active storm pattern we've been in so far this Fall is more normal than the several dry Fall seasons we've seen the last decade.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022

A mix of MVFR to VFR cigs expected for the rest of the day, with
cigs possibly lowering to IFR over portions of SE TX during the
overnight hours. There is also the chance for reduced vis due to
patchy fog developing overnight into early Thu morning. Areas
along and to the west of the I-45 corridor look to be the most
susceptible for fog formation at this time. Otherwise, expect
E-SE winds at 10 KTS or less today, becoming light and VRB
overnight, and strengthening back again to around 10 KTS shortly
after sunrise Thu.

24

[Stratton20]

Hmmm

[Cpv17]

Looks like the heaviest totals of rain will once again be into the Golden Triangle and into LA. Go figure.

[don]

Not very often that SPC does an update to the Day 3 outlook. A moderate risk may be coming for those north of us. Wouldn't be surprised to see portions of SE Texas put into an enhanced risk also.(Bryan/College station is on the southern edge of the enhanced risk area.)

Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA...

AMENDED FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND EASTWARD SHIFT.

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday into Friday
night across portions of the southern and central Plains into
portions of the ArklaTex. Scattered damaging gusts, hail and a few
tornadoes will be possible.

...19z Update...
Confidence has increased that the large-scale upper trough will
eject eastward faster than previous forecast guidance suggested. As
the upper trough is forecast to continue to intensify, increasingly
robust low and mid-level wind fields are expected to overspread a
destabilizing warm sector across much of central and northeast TX.
The northeastern extent of the larger buoyancy is still somewhat
uncertain, but strong forcing for ascent will likely support
numerous thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts across
portions of eastern OK, western AR and far southern MO. Confidence
is highest that a strongly forced QLCS will move eastward near the
cold front from early afternoon, and towards the Mississippi River
Valley overnight. A 50+ kt low-level jet and large looping
hodographs will favor damaging wind/mesovortex potential with the
QLCS. The tornado threat remains less certain and is tied to the
conditional risk for warm sector supercells ahead of the line, along
with the magnitude of destabilization, and open warm-sector forcing.
However, large 0-1km SRH (250+ m2/s2) and the potential for
supercells does suggest a conditional risk for tornadoes (possibly
significant). An Enhanced risk for mainly strong damaging wind gusts
has been added for storms late Friday through early Saturday
morning. The Slight Risk has also been expanded east for greater
severe potential through the overnight hours with the QLCS.

[DoctorMu]

Definite maybe on any severe cells in the NW territories. However, I think south of Hwy 1*5 wee hour severe cells are less likely. There's enough humid air for lift and limited cap, so I like our chances of a moderate rain: 0.5 to 1 .5 in at most.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
359 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022

Mid to upper level ridge will keep building aloft through Thursday
and will continue to help limit rain activity across Southeast TX.
For late in the afternoon to early evening hours, although the
subsidence should keep rain from developing, with low level moisture
still in the 1.2 to 1.5 inch range, isolated light showers could
still form, mainly along areas south of the I-10 corridor. For
tonight, expect mostly cloudy skies with slightly warmer minimums
with lows ranging between the low to to mid 60s over areas north of
I-10 and in the mid 60s to low 70s over areas south of I-10. There
is a chance for patchy fog to develop again during the overnight and
early morning hours. At this time, areas along and to the west of I-
45 will be the most susceptible to fog development, however, it
could expand well into some our eastern counties as well.

With the ridge in place, 850MB temperatures rising, and a more
dominant southeasterly flow, the warming trend will prevail on
Thursday; expect highs to reach the low to mid 80s areawide. Once
again, there will be a very slight chance for some isolated light
showers, mainly over the west and southwest counties during the day,
but rainfall totals will be minimal. The chance for rain will
gradually rise closer towards the early Friday morning, as the ridge
weakens and a surge of low level moisture moves in from the
southwest. With the dewpoints rising, it will feel a bit "muggy`
Thursday night, and the lows will slightly warmer (between the mid
60s to low 70s).

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022


While warm, Fri is looking to be an active weather day as the next
mid/upper trough moves across the Southern Plains helps to produce
a line of strong to possibly severe storms which is currently fore-
cast to reach northern portions of SE TX during the middle to late
afternoon on Fri. This is just a bit faster than the previous runs
but confidence is also a bit higher as models seem to be in better
consensus moving forward. As noted from previous AFDs, ingredients
do appear to be coming together for strong to severe thunderstorms
for SE TX. Progs of a strong low-level jet (+40 kts), abundant low-
level moisture (PWs around 2"), favorable upper jet location (RRQ)
as well as decent shear are all pointing to the possibility of the
storms that do form to be strong to severe. SPC did update the out-
look for Day 3 to add our northern counties into an Enhanced Risk,
with the rest of the CWA remaining in the Slight Risk. The primary
severe weather threat looks to be strong damaging winds, but a few
tornadoes may be possible. Please continue to monitor the forecast
for any updates.

Otherwise...conditions to improve by early Sat afternoon as a drier
and slightly cooler modified Pacific air mass moves into the region.
A warm front pushes back inland late Sun or early Mon with gradual-
ly warming temperatures, increasing low-level moisture, and perhaps
isolated showers expected for the first part of next week. 41


&&

[DoctorMu]

Not very often that SPC does an update to the Day 3 outlook. A moderate risk may be coming for those north of us. Wouldn't be surprised to see portions of SE Texas put into an enhanced risk also.(Bryan/College station is on the southern edge of the enhanced risk area.)

day3otlk_0730.gif

Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA...

AMENDED FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND EASTWARD SHIFT.

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday into Friday
night across portions of the southern and central Plains into
portions of the ArklaTex. Scattered damaging gusts, hail and a few
tornadoes will be possible.

...19z Update...
Confidence has increased that the large-scale upper trough will
eject eastward faster than previous forecast guidance suggested. As
the upper trough is forecast to continue to intensify, increasingly
robust low and mid-level wind fields are expected to overspread a
destabilizing warm sector across much of central and northeast TX.
The northeastern extent of the larger buoyancy is still somewhat
uncertain, but strong forcing for ascent will likely support
numerous thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts across
portions of eastern OK, western AR and far southern MO. Confidence
is highest that a strongly forced QLCS will move eastward near the
cold front from early afternoon, and towards the Mississippi River
Valley overnight. A 50+ kt low-level jet and large looping
hodographs will favor damaging wind/mesovortex potential with the
QLCS. The tornado threat remains less certain and is tied to the
conditional risk for warm sector supercells ahead of the line, along
with the magnitude of destabilization, and open warm-sector forcing.
However, large 0-1km SRH (250+ m2/s2) and the potential for
supercells does suggest a conditional risk for tornadoes (possibly
significant). An Enhanced risk for mainly strong damaging wind gusts
has been added for storms late Friday through early Saturday
morning. The Slight Risk has also been expanded east for greater
severe potential through the overnight hours with the QLCS.

I agree, Don! CLL is on the edge. There's a bit of shear, but the night time timing should lessen severe risk. Part of my thought is a hunch from 30 years of local experience. We get far less severe action and even rain at night vs. Arkansas.

My wife's parents get those severe storms rollin in from Oklahoma, usually at night. The severe cells develop with daytime heating in the middle of the OK and keep on propagating as they move east, drawing up deep moisture. I'm not sure whether an interaction with the Ouchitas furthers lift and severe nighttime T-storms or not. When we visit them north of Hot Springs, those 2 am boomers are common in the Spring and Fall.

East of CLL in LA, MA, AL, TN those night-time severe outbreaks can be deadly, but they are firehosing Gulf moisture. We're just far enough west to that we don't get the PW or there's a cap to fight.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031043
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Warm and humid conditions will persist into Fri as Gulf moisture
flows back into the region. Expect an ugly mix of patchy fog, light
rain or drizzle this morning with a nearly saturated layer under the
low level cap. Much of this will mix out this afternoon, but we`ll
still have some isolated WAA type shra around. Similar scenario
plays out again tonight into Friday, albeit without the fog
considering the increasing southerly winds. Highs should be in the
80s both days. Lows tonight will probably remain in the 70s with the
cloud cover and stronger winds in place.

By Friday afternoon, we should see a 30-40kt llvl jet set up across
the region and PW`s climbing close to 2". Upper level trof will be
approaching from the west and large scale lift will be on an upward
trend. Scattered precip should be increasing later in the day as a
Pacific frontal boundary makes its way closer to the area.

There is some uncertainty in regards to frontal timing as some of
the guidance has sped up while others remain a bit slower. Though
differences are only about 3-6 hours, it could make a difference in
regards to overall instability and potential for strong to severe
cells ahead of and along the thin band of shra/tstms expected to
push thru with the front. In general, anticipate the front to make
its way into the Brazos Valley in the early evening and off the
coast 3-4am. SPC has all of southeast Texas outlooked in a slight
risk of severe storms, and the northern couple tiers in an enhanced
risk. Agree with the highest risks the further north one goes as
that`s where the better forcing will be situated (strongest llj,
best orientation to the stronger RRQ portion of the ssw-nne oriented
250mb jet, overall stronger shear, and closer to the lobe of the
trof that`ll be pivoting from the nw parts of the state into the
cntl Plains). Further south, storm strength may be more conditional
on overall instability. We`re entering the time period where the
HREF members will hopefully be able to add some confidence one way
or the other.

47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

The aforementioned front is expected to push offshore by Friday
night or early Saturday morning. However, the front is not
expected to push that far offshore. The boundary is likely to
stall followed by a turn to the north as a warm front by Sunday.
So the less humid fall like air in the front`s wake will be short
lived. Enjoy the 70s with low humidity while you can! The
northward progressing warm front will bring a risk of a few
coastal showers on Sunday as well as ushering in a more muggy air
mass in its wake as offshore flow switches to onshore flow. There
is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the warm front
passage. It is possible that it could be slow enough to allow for
one more fall like day with temperatures in the 70s and lower
humidity. The chance of extending this fall weather into Sunday is
highest in our northern counties.

During the Monday to Wednesday time frame, onshore flow will keep
moisture levels elevated. Therefore, it is no surprise that global
models are showing a chance of isolated rain showers over SE
Texas, particularly near the coast, on those days. However, PoPs
are expected to remain on the low side due to a large building
mid/upper level ridge that will span from Mexico to the Midwest.
500MB pressure heights are expected to rise into the high 580s
and could reach as high as 590-591 dam. That`s quite a ridge! If
this were August, we`d be talking about temperatures in the 90s.
Fortunately, we will be dealing with a November atmosphere as
opposed to an August one. That being said, it will still be quite
warm and muggy with highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows
are expected to generally be in the mid/upper 60s for most
locations.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Generally IFR cigs n/nw of the Highway 59/I-69 corridor and MVFR
further s/se. They`ll eventually lift with some mixing but will be
slow to do so. Probably not until about lunch time that we see
VFR conditions areawide. In addition, there will be some patchy
fog, drizzle, -ra around but overall coverage, significance and
impact are probably not worth cluttering up the TAFs with so will
not mention attm. Status fills back in this evening. Wind speeds
will be a bit higher so would anticipate lower end MVFR cigs for
most of the region. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Southeasterly winds will increase today and tomorrow in advance
of the next storm system. Winds will likely reach caution levels
offshore by this afternoon and evening. We cannot rule out small
craft advisory level winds offshore ahead of the front on Friday. The
system will push a cold front and an associated band of showers
and thunderstorms into the waters Friday evening through very
early Saturday morning. The boundary will return north as a warm
front Sunday into Monday bringing a return of onshore winds.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 72 84 54 / 20 20 80 60
Houston (IAH) 82 73 84 59 / 20 20 60 90
Galveston (GLS) 78 73 80 65 / 10 10 30 100

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
through this evening for GMZ350-370-375.

&&

$$

[don]

Enhanced risk area expanded. Severe weather is still conditional for the southern half of SE Texas( mainly based on timing of the front). Severe weather is more likely for the northern counties of the area.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Friday into Friday night
across portions of the southern and central Plains into portions of
the Arklatex. Scattered damaging gusts, hail and a few tornadoes
will be possible.

...Southern Plains into AR/LA and Vicinity...

A complex scenario for severe thunderstorm potential exists on
Friday across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
vicinity.

The large-scale pattern will be characterized by a potent upper
shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners/southern Rockies
vicinity Friday morning. As the trough ejects eastward toward the
Plains, a closed low is expected to develop and an intense 80-100 kt
south/southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread portions of the
southern Plains by evening. Meanwhile, strong warm advection will
persist over the region on a 35-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet. This
southerly low-level flow will transport rich boundary-layer moisture
northward ahead of a cold front developing southeast across the
central Plains the lower-MO/Upper MS valleys, and an
eastward-advancing dryline across central/eastern TX. Mid/upper 60s
F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline across TX into
southeast OK/southern AR and LA. Boundary-layer moisture will
diminish with north/northeast extent ahead of the cold front, with
low/mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as northeast OK/northern AR.
Widespread cloud cover will limit surface heating. However,
steepening midlevel lapse rates atop an unseasonably moist
boundary-layer will support moderate destabilization, especially
across TX where moisture quality will be best.

Thunderstorm clusters will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period near the cold front from northwest OK into central KS. This
initial activity will mainly be capable of hail and strong gusts as
the surface cold front shifts southeast across KS and western OK.
With time, warm sector convection is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the I-35 corridor from south-central OK into
north/central TX. Uncertainty remains regarding convective mode due
to differences in guidance with the timing of surface boundaries and
the ejecting upper trough. However, a mix of semi-discrete
supercells and clusters/line segments initially appears possible
beginning Friday afternoon. This activity will likely grow upscale
into a QLCS across southeast OK/northeast TX toward western AR/LA.
All severe hazards will be possible, including damaging gusts, hail,
and a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be significant).

Of note continues to be differences in forecast guidance regarding
the timing of the ejecting of an upper trough over the southern
Rockies Friday morning. The ECMWF/GFS solutions are around 3-6 hours
quicker with the eastward progression of this system compared to the
NAM/HRRR/HREF/SREF. This also has implications for the evolution of
the surface cold and the dryline. Given this uncertainty, in
conjunction with latest guidance from various CAMS, HREF and the
NCAR HRRR Neural Network Convective Hazards guidance, the Enhanced
risk has been expanded westward toward the I-35 corridor in
north/central TX.

[Stratton20]

Oh lovely now im included in the enhanced risk, i love weather but severe weather is a huge no for me, after experiencing a night time tornado severe years ago when i was up in north texas visiting my grandparents, i definitely want no part in those stronger storms

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff:

A powerful storm system will bring a chance of strong and severe storms to eastern Texas on Friday night.

A strong upper level storm system moving into the SW US will eject into the southern and central plains on Friday and Saturday. This will result in a cold front moving across the area Friday night. Ahead of this front a warm and humid Gulf air mass will expand northward over eastern TX today and Friday. This air mass will become increasingly unstable with heating on Friday and showers will begin to develop after midday. As lift increases into Friday afternoon, thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front in the warm sector, mainly north of HWY 105. Weak capping in the mid level may prevent anything of significance from developing, but should a storm form, strong shear and instability will support all severe modes. Best chances of this are going to be in the Lake Livingston to Crockett region for Friday afternoon with scattered showers moving quickly northward elsewhere.

Friday evening attention will be on the approaching front with a line of developing thunderstorms. Frontal timing is still in question some with the global and high resolution guidance anywhere from 3-6 hours apart. A later frontal passage will reduce the severe threat some with lowering instability later in the night and increasing capping. SPC has outlooked the entire area with a slight (2 out of 5) severe risk and the northern portions of the area in an enhanced (3 out of 5). Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the main threat overnight Friday with the best chances again mainly north of I-10 and likely north of HYW 105. A much more significant severe threat…including the potential for a few strong tornadoes will be found just north of the area across NE/EC TX.

Front will clear the coast by early Saturday with drier and cooler conditions for the weekend before the boundary returns northward as a warm front starting on Sunday.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[Cpv17]

Oh lovely now im included in the enhanced risk, i love weather but severe weather is a huge no for me, after experiencing a night time tornado severe years ago when i was up in north texas visiting my grandparents, i definitely want no part in those stronger storms

I still to this day have never even seen a tornado. I’ve barely even seen hail maybe 3-4 times and only twice have I seen winds over 60mph. Severe weather where I live is extremely rare.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 i have only ever seen one and that was the night time one, and I just barely saw it though luckily it was a few miles away from me and. i only saw part of it because of the lightning, night time tornadoes are incredibly scary, but they are honestly pretty amazing to watch when they are far away from affected any sort of populated area, I actually know someone thats going to be storm chasing in texas tommorow around the tyler, tx area

[don]

Enhanced risk expanded and now includes the northern suburbs of the metro area.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night centered
over parts of northern and eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma,
southwest Arkansas and western Louisiana. Several tornadoes are
possible over Texas with damaging winds spreading into Arkansas and
Louisiana overnight. A strong tornado or two may occur from late
afternoon into early evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over NM will deepen and pivot northeastward across
northern TX, OK and KS during the day, then toward the mid MS Valley
by 12Z Saturday. Coincident with this wave will be a strengthening
mid and upper-level speed max with strong cooling aloft from the TX
Panhandle into KS.

At the surface, a cold front should extend roughly from eastern IA
into southeast KS and to a low over southwest OK at 12Z Friday, with
gradual deepening of the surface trough from MO into northeast TX
through 00Z. Southerly surface winds ahead of the cold front as well
as a broad zone of 40-50 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds will aid
moisture advection, with 68-72 F dewpoints south of the Red River,
and low 60s F into southern MO. The end result will be a region of
favorable instability, shear and lift from eastern TX and OK into
western AR and LA, with a threat of several tornadoes and damaging
winds.

...TX...OK...AR...LA...
Scattered storms are expected to be ongoing near and north of a cold
front from northwest OK into eastern KS, with strong deep-layer
shear and cold temperatures aloft favoring hail. Given the
front-parallel nature to the winds aloft, these storms may become
elevated as the front undercuts the convection. Isolated damaging
gusts could occur immediately along the boundary.

To the south, moisture and instability will increase throughout the
day ahead of the cold front in TX. As pressures fall, boundary-layer
winds will become increasingly confluent along the I-35 corridor,
with deepening moist profiles. Forecast soundings indicate that the
capping inversion will not be very strong. As a result, increasing
large-scale lift will likely lead to pre-frontal storms after 19-20Z
over much of northern TX into southeast OK. Strong deep-layer shear
and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will favor discrete cells, a few of
which may mature into tornadic supercells as SRH increases to around
300 m2/s2 by 00Z. Other isolated supercells are possible farther
southwestward into central TX as the cold front approaches the
instability axis. Low-level shear will not be as strong farther
south, but supercells will still be possible, including the threat
of locally damaging hail.

During the evening and overnight, the cold front will merge with any
existing warm sector activity, with a severe squall line forecast.
Damaging winds and brief tornadoes will be possible over eastern TX,
western LA and AR, and eastern OK. Other severe storms may occur
from northern AR into southern MO, where shear will be very strong,
but instability minimal. Sporadic wind damage may occur overnight in
these areas.

..Jewell.. 11/03/2022

[Stratton20]

Looks like we could have some supercells forming ahead of the main line tomorrow night, tornado threat could be really significant for some, possibly an outbreak