November 2022

[Cpv17]

Wheres todays rains?

Most of the action today will be north and east of us. Better chance in Beaumont though. Louisiana and Mississippi will get most of it. Big time tornado outbreak.

That and the forecast busted again, which is why he is asking. This is a change. I had a 70% chance of rain advertised on Today/Tuesday for days and then yanked again at the last minute.

Not sure why they had the percentages so high to begin with. There was nothing shown on the models that would warrant that, at least not from what I saw. I never expected much of anything for SE TX today.

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Discussion 1979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291939Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated thunderstorm or two may produce hail and gusty
winds across southeast TX this afternoon. A watch is not expected at
this time.

DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms across southeast TX continue
to slowly intensify early this afternoon. The airmass across this
region is unseasonably moist with dewpoints in the 70s F. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and surface temperatures in the upper 70s F to
near 80 F are contributing to MLCAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg.
Strong vertical shear is present, with effective shear magnitudes
greater than 45 kt evident in region VWP data and 19z mesoanalysis
data. Overall this would support organized updrafts capable of large
hail. However, both large-scale and mesoscale ascent will remain
weak across the region the next several hours, with little focus for
supercell development until later tonight when a cold front shifts
southeast. Nevertheless, a storm or two may develop within a strong
warm advection regime. Any storm that does develop is expected to
quickly shift east/northeast toward Tornado Watch 572. Given the
conditional and isolated threat, a watch is not expected at this
time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 11/29/2022

[jasons2k]

I would love to visit hawaii, unfortunately the recent volcanic eruptions over their have pretty much crushed that thought, but I am glad that the bulk of the rain should stay to the east of us, its nice being able to see the sun again haha

Effects are isolated to the Big Island, and limited for now.

[Iceresistance]

There is a tornado warning near Liberty, TX

[dp6]

70’s are not uncommon in SE Texas in winter. 30’s (for highs) are.

Bingo. I remember bikini watching on Galveston beach during one Christmas Break back in high school. Obviously doesn't happen every year, but not super rare, either.

[dp6]

There is a tornado warning near Liberty, TX

Wow, pretty far west for activity, though not far from where the 5% level starts.

[TexasBreeze]

The showers look to be ending around here already with drier air coming in from the west southwest. It is just beginning for areas to the east and northeast of here though.

[Cromagnum]

My yard is still a bog. We can miss the next round or two

[Stratton20]

12z EPS is looking better for colder conditions in the extended range fwiw

[captainbarbossa19]

Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now. I am monitoring closely the radar.