November 2022

[Cpv17]

DoctorMu that could be a rather strong front, models havw some pretty cold air behind that front, though not sure if that front makes it through, ridging over the gulf and mexico will make it hard for any sort of “ cold air mass” to make it far south, we need the PNA to go neutral

Yes and need the EPO and NAO to corporate as well. I think there could be a significant severe weather event setting up with the clash of these airmasses.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 man the end of the 18z GFS run would be amazing, wouldn’t be surprised to see a severe weather outbreak event somewhere in the country with these two strong air-masses colliding

[Cpv17]

Looks like a really solid snowpack will be building over the Rockies and the NW over the next couple weeks.

[jasons2k]

NWS lowered my rain chances tomorrow down to 30%.
TWC app has increased them to 70% tomorrow.
Already seeing some storms on the radar to the SW tonight.

[Cromagnum]

Hope it pours and pours ar my place. We didn't get crap on Friday.

[don]

We need to start watching this weekend ,as a potent trough becomes negatively tilted over the state. There could be a tornado outbreak in Texas as a strong MCS/Squall line moves through with the front.Remember SE Texas gets more tornadoes on average in the Fall than it does during tornado season in the Spring.Just something to keep an eye on.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022

As one gazes upon the water vapor imagery this morning, the presence
of a mid level trough is easily seen over southern Texas and
northern Mexico. Ample moisture and enhanced lift ahead of the
trough axis is giving us a wet start to November this morning. Most
of the rainfall activity is in the form of scattered to numerous
light/moderate showers. However, there is some convective activity
near the coast where PWATs and surface convergence are highest.
Therefore, some communities in our coastal counties may receive a
locally heavy thunderstorm this morning. Speaking of the coast,
there will be increasing ENE winds today along the coast as the
pressure gradient tightens between an offshore trough and a high
pressure system centered over the Ohio River Valley. PoPs will
decrease from north to south by the late morning and afternoon hours
as the trough pushes east-northeast into the southern Mississippi
River Valley. However, an expected lingering convergence zone is
keeping 20-30 percent PoPs in the forecast into Wednesday over our
southwestern counties. Patchy fog is possible Wednesday morning,
especially over our northern counties where skies may become more
clear.

Now let`s talk about temperatures. November is greeting us with
temps generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s this morning. The
presence of rain and clouds will limit the amount of warming we
experience today. Some locations over central and southern portions
of our CWA may struggle to hit 70. Generally, highs are expected to
reach the low 70s. Lows tonight are expected to range from the
low/mid 50s in our northern counties to around 60 in Houston and mid
60s near the coast. Pleasant temps are expected on Wednesday with
highs in the 75-80 range.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022

The next western upper level trof will be digging into the Desert
Southwest Thursday. We`ll generally be situated on the western
periphery of some broad ridging across the Gulf, but cannot rule
out some isolated WAA/streamer type shra into Fri as the sfc coastal
trof washes out & increasing onshore winds transport Gulf moisture
back into the region.

By late Fri into Sat, we`ll see PW`s climb into the 1.8-2.1"
range. Large scale lift will be increasing as the upper trof makes
eastward progress. Anticipate we will see a band of shra/tstms
develop along its associated weak Pacific frontal boundary and
track thru the region late Friday night and Saturday morning. Too
early for specifics, but some medium range guidance shows a healthy
LLJ in place and a favorable upper jet position so we`ll be
monitoring trends and the potential for any strong storms
depending on sufficient instability. Things look to clear out
toward midday Sat followed by a nice remainder of the weekend.

Warm front pushes back inland late Sunday and Monday and should bring
a gradual return to some cloud cover, warmer temps, higher humidity
and lowish POPs back into the fcst early next week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022

Periods of rain will effect most terminals this morning. For
terminals south of I-10 to the coast, a more steady light to
moderate is unfolding. Occasional heavy rain and even a
thunderstorm could result in periods of reduced visibility and
lowered ceilings. The best chance of thunderstorms will be near
the coast. Most locations that have experienced heavy RA or a TS
have seen MVFR skies / visibility. But we cannot rule out periods
of IFR conditions. Winds near the coast will increase from the ENE
this morning into the afternoon. We have increased the expected
peak sustained winds at GLS. Sustained winds of 15-18 knots are
expected near the coast with higher gusts.

This afternoon is expected to feature gradual tapering of the
rainfall activity from north to south. We will need to monitor the
potential for patchy fog tomorrow night. Clouds may mitigate the
fog risk. The best chance of skies clearing enough to allow for
fog will be for our northern terminals. No fog mentioned in the
TAFs as of this update.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022

Unsettled weather is expected in the coastal waters today into
tonight as an upper level storm system passes through. Look for
the pressure gradient to tighten with a coastal trough situated
off the coast along with increasing east and northeast winds and
building seas through the day. Several of the hires guidance
suggests the potential for 25-30kt winds offshore Matagorda...a
bit less further east. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect
for all waters with the exception of Galveston Bay where speeds
should be below criteria. Expect periods of showers and
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong offshore.

Slowly improving conditions are expected later tonight. Winds
will become more southeasterly by Thursday and increase in speed
Friday and Friday night in advance of the next storm system and
associated weak Pacific front expected to move into the waters
late Friday night and Saturday. Small craft advisories look like a
good bet as winds/seas increase once again. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 57 79 64 / 30 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 69 59 78 64 / 70 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 67 76 70 / 80 30 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-355-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for GMZ355.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
Wednesday for GMZ375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...87

[jasons2k]

It’s raining. For once the weather app wins out. NWS plays catch up and now up to 70% for today.

[don]

It sure is nice to see the widespread rain on radar. Models seem to have underestimated precip coverage today.

[Stratton20]

Lets hope the severe weather threat busts majorly on friday, though some good news is the highest tornado threat looks to stay well north of SE Texas

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022

Mix of MVFR to VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Widespread -RA across SE TX will continue through this evening as
mid to upper level shortwave moves across E TX but will taper off
early tonight. There is the potential for patchy fog to develop
overnight, but will depend on how much cloud coverage we keep
during that time. The greatest potential for fog at this time is
for terminals north of IAH. E-SE winds will be light and VRB
tonight, slightly increasing Wed morning.

24

[DoctorMu]

Very Spring-like storm scenario on Friday with high PWs (1.8-2.1), unstable air and SJT firehose to feed the trough.

Something to watch out for re: severe cells. Rain amounts don't look massive 1-2 inches as consensus for CLL. 1-3 inches south of Hwy 1*5.

Today there were a few sprinkles. No substantial rain, but we're in decent shape for now for ground plants and grass. The reservoirs could use replenishment in the Houston area.

[Cpv17]

Picked up 1.25” of soaking rain today! Nice light to moderate rain the entire day.

[djmike]

14 hrs of a slow steady rain in Beaumont. Totaling 1.05” as it just ended. Nice!

[jasons2k]

Totaled 0.35” here. A nice way to start the month.

[Cpv17]

The system that was originally supposed to impact us on Saturday now looks like a Friday night event.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

.9” in Magnolia.

Now it’s time for our first freeze. Let’s get it on.

[jasons2k]

.9” in Magnolia.

Now it’s time for our first freeze. Let’s get it on.

Not quite. The average first freeze at IAH now is running at December 2nd. Only a month early there

[don]

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday across
portions of the southern and central Plains into western Arkansas
and Louisiana. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be the main
hazards with these storms.

...Southern/Central Plains and Vicinity...

Some forecast guidance has trended faster/more progressive with the
northeastward ejection of a large-scale upper trough oriented from
the northern Plains to the southern Rockies Friday morning. This
trough will lift northeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley by
Saturday morning, with a band of strong southwesterly deep-layer
flow overspreading the region.

Convection is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along a cold front oriented from the Upper MS Valley to central KS
and northwest TX. A 40-55 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet will
support continued strong warm advection ahead of the front. Mid to
upper 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints are expected as far north as
northeast OK, diminishing with northeast extent into the Upper
Midwest. Upper 60s to near 70 F boundary-layer dewpoints are
expected across parts of southern/central and eastern TX. This
seasonably moist air mass amid strong vertical shear will support
organized severe thunderstorms near the eastward surging surface
front.

Strong to severe storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Severe
potential will increase markedly with eastward extent, especially
across TX where stronger thermodynamics will align with favorable
shear. A linear storm mode appears most likely at this time, but a
few semi-discrete supercells also will be possible ahead of the
front across the warm sector. All severe hazards appear possible,
though damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be the main concerns
through Friday night. The eastward extent of the severe threat is a
bit uncertain given differences in timing of the front and how far
east modest destabilization occurs. Some eastward adjustment to the
Slight and Marginal risk areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

[Stratton20]

Im personally not concerned about the severe weather threat here, think most of it should stay in north texas, probably just some brief heavy rain and gusty winds, up near dallas, that might be a different story though