.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022
Mix of MVFR to VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Widespread -RA across SE TX will continue through this evening as
mid to upper level shortwave moves across E TX but will taper off
early tonight. There is the potential for patchy fog to develop
overnight, but will depend on how much cloud coverage we keep
during that time. The greatest potential for fog at this time is
for terminals north of IAH. E-SE winds will be light and VRB
tonight, slightly increasing Wed morning.
24
November 2022
Very Spring-like storm scenario on Friday with high PWs (1.8-2.1), unstable air and SJT firehose to feed the trough.
Something to watch out for re: severe cells. Rain amounts don't look massive 1-2 inches as consensus for CLL. 1-3 inches south of Hwy 1*5.
Today there were a few sprinkles. No substantial rain, but we're in decent shape for now for ground plants and grass. The reservoirs could use replenishment in the Houston area.
Something to watch out for re: severe cells. Rain amounts don't look massive 1-2 inches as consensus for CLL. 1-3 inches south of Hwy 1*5.
Today there were a few sprinkles. No substantial rain, but we're in decent shape for now for ground plants and grass. The reservoirs could use replenishment in the Houston area.
Picked up 1.25” of soaking rain today! Nice light to moderate rain the entire day.
14 hrs of a slow steady rain in Beaumont. Totaling 1.05” as it just ended. Nice!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Totaled 0.35” here. A nice way to start the month.
The system that was originally supposed to impact us on Saturday now looks like a Friday night event.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
.9” in Magnolia.
Now it’s time for our first freeze. Let’s get it on.
Now it’s time for our first freeze. Let’s get it on.
Team #NeverSummer
Not quite. The average first freeze at IAH now is running at December 2nd. Only a month early thereMontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:41 am .9” in Magnolia.
Now it’s time for our first freeze. Let’s get it on.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday across
portions of the southern and central Plains into western Arkansas
and Louisiana. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be the main
hazards with these storms.
...Southern/Central Plains and Vicinity...
Some forecast guidance has trended faster/more progressive with the
northeastward ejection of a large-scale upper trough oriented from
the northern Plains to the southern Rockies Friday morning. This
trough will lift northeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley by
Saturday morning, with a band of strong southwesterly deep-layer
flow overspreading the region.
Convection is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along a cold front oriented from the Upper MS Valley to central KS
and northwest TX. A 40-55 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet will
support continued strong warm advection ahead of the front. Mid to
upper 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints are expected as far north as
northeast OK, diminishing with northeast extent into the Upper
Midwest. Upper 60s to near 70 F boundary-layer dewpoints are
expected across parts of southern/central and eastern TX. This
seasonably moist air mass amid strong vertical shear will support
organized severe thunderstorms near the eastward surging surface
front.
Strong to severe storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Severe
potential will increase markedly with eastward extent, especially
across TX where stronger thermodynamics will align with favorable
shear. A linear storm mode appears most likely at this time, but a
few semi-discrete supercells also will be possible ahead of the
front across the warm sector. All severe hazards appear possible,
though damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be the main concerns
through Friday night. The eastward extent of the severe threat is a
bit uncertain given differences in timing of the front and how far
east modest destabilization occurs. Some eastward adjustment to the
Slight and Marginal risk areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Im personally not concerned about the severe weather threat here, think most of it should stay in north texas, probably just some brief heavy rain and gusty winds, up near dallas, that might be a different story though
Sight chance of severe weather as progged Friday am. Time of day should largely dampen the threat.
The front clears through Saturday during the day...
...then comes back as a warm front. Really? 80°+ Monday - Thursday of next week.
Next Friday/Saturday finally brings in some cooler air that persists...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022
We begin today on the murky side for many communities across the
CWA. For areas near the coast, this murkiness is in the form of
low/mid level clouds and a few isolated rain showers. Across our
central and especially northern counties, the murkiness is defined
by areas of dense fog. The fog will break as the morning progresses
while a chance of coastal showers will linger throughout the day.
Meanwhile in the mid/upper levels we will have increased ridging
through tomorrow. In addition there will be a gradually tightening
surface pressure gradient between a high off the U.S. East Coast and
falling surface pressure over the plains. As a result, winds will
begin to veer to a more southeasterly direction this evening before
increasing on Thursday. Though increasing mid/upper level dams will
generally act to suppress PoPs, the resulting PWAT enhancement from
increasing onshore flow will bring a chance of a few rain showers on
Thursday with the best chance of precip occurring over our western
counties.
As far as temperatures are concerned, the increased ridging and
onshore flow will insure a warming trend with rising humidity.
Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 70s to near 80
today. Overnight temps will be quite mild for early November,
ranging from mid 60s to low 70s south of I-10 and low to mid 60s
north of I-10. As mid/upper pressure heights and low/mid level WAA
increase tomorrow, expect afternoon temps to surpass the 80 degree
mark for all locations minus the immediate coast. A few spots could
reach the mid 80s. With dew points in the 70s, Thursday will feel
quite muggy. Perhaps a more summery feel than the calendar suggests.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022
30-40kt low level jet will be transporting 2" PW air from the
western Gulf into the region Fri in advance of an approaching
mid-upper trof to our west. Large scale lift will be on the
increase thru the day and anticipate we`ll see a corresponding
increase in precip coverage during the afternoon. Developing band
of shra/tstms along the Pacific frontal boundary to our northwest
should be expanding southward later in the day as it encounters
the moist airmass (along the the aid of being in the RRQ of a
ssw-nne oriented upper jet). This band of showers and storms
should be pushing across the region Friday night and off the coast
before sunrise Saturday. Best dynamics/forcing appear to be more
favorable the further north of I-10 that one gets, but if given
enough instability or mesoscale forcing you can`t really rule out
the potential for some isolated strong storms anywhere just yet.
In regards to rainfall, 0.5-1.5" looks to be a decent estimate
areawide. The system looks fairly progressive, so although there
might be some heavy downpours at times, the cells/line should be
moving a a decent clip to mitigate much in the way of ff concerns
other than the common localized street ponding.
Things dry out in the wake of the front mid-late Saturday morning.
The boundary will eventually make its way back north as a warm
front Sunday & Monday, so look for a return of cloud cover and
isolated rain chances as this occurs. Warm, humid conditions will
then continue into early next week with some mid level ridging
stretching from Mexico into the Tennessee Valley. 47
The front clears through Saturday during the day...
...then comes back as a warm front. Really? 80°+ Monday - Thursday of next week.
Next Friday/Saturday finally brings in some cooler air that persists...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022
We begin today on the murky side for many communities across the
CWA. For areas near the coast, this murkiness is in the form of
low/mid level clouds and a few isolated rain showers. Across our
central and especially northern counties, the murkiness is defined
by areas of dense fog. The fog will break as the morning progresses
while a chance of coastal showers will linger throughout the day.
Meanwhile in the mid/upper levels we will have increased ridging
through tomorrow. In addition there will be a gradually tightening
surface pressure gradient between a high off the U.S. East Coast and
falling surface pressure over the plains. As a result, winds will
begin to veer to a more southeasterly direction this evening before
increasing on Thursday. Though increasing mid/upper level dams will
generally act to suppress PoPs, the resulting PWAT enhancement from
increasing onshore flow will bring a chance of a few rain showers on
Thursday with the best chance of precip occurring over our western
counties.
As far as temperatures are concerned, the increased ridging and
onshore flow will insure a warming trend with rising humidity.
Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 70s to near 80
today. Overnight temps will be quite mild for early November,
ranging from mid 60s to low 70s south of I-10 and low to mid 60s
north of I-10. As mid/upper pressure heights and low/mid level WAA
increase tomorrow, expect afternoon temps to surpass the 80 degree
mark for all locations minus the immediate coast. A few spots could
reach the mid 80s. With dew points in the 70s, Thursday will feel
quite muggy. Perhaps a more summery feel than the calendar suggests.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022
30-40kt low level jet will be transporting 2" PW air from the
western Gulf into the region Fri in advance of an approaching
mid-upper trof to our west. Large scale lift will be on the
increase thru the day and anticipate we`ll see a corresponding
increase in precip coverage during the afternoon. Developing band
of shra/tstms along the Pacific frontal boundary to our northwest
should be expanding southward later in the day as it encounters
the moist airmass (along the the aid of being in the RRQ of a
ssw-nne oriented upper jet). This band of showers and storms
should be pushing across the region Friday night and off the coast
before sunrise Saturday. Best dynamics/forcing appear to be more
favorable the further north of I-10 that one gets, but if given
enough instability or mesoscale forcing you can`t really rule out
the potential for some isolated strong storms anywhere just yet.
In regards to rainfall, 0.5-1.5" looks to be a decent estimate
areawide. The system looks fairly progressive, so although there
might be some heavy downpours at times, the cells/line should be
moving a a decent clip to mitigate much in the way of ff concerns
other than the common localized street ponding.
Things dry out in the wake of the front mid-late Saturday morning.
The boundary will eventually make its way back north as a warm
front Sunday & Monday, so look for a return of cloud cover and
isolated rain chances as this occurs. Warm, humid conditions will
then continue into early next week with some mid level ridging
stretching from Mexico into the Tennessee Valley. 47
Yep that's the question how progressive will the system be. There will be a greater chance of severe weather if the system comes in during the evening hours,verses overnight.Models are still in some disagreement on timing.If i had to guess on what areas will have the greatest threat of seeing severe weather it would be central/north Texas.But parameters will definitely be available for severe weather in SE Texas also.But severe weather is more conditional on timing and instability down here in SE Texas than up in north/central Texas.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Severe weather potential on friday followed by * Potentially much colder weather in the 10-12 day period* lots of interesting things to talk about in the weather world ahead
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4480
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Many high schools in the DFW Metroplex are moving their games to Thursday because of the threat of severe weather.
Matt Stepp
@Matt_Stepp817
So I'm basically counting 195 UIL 11man games scheduled for Thur night....a typical Thursday slate during the season has about 60 games total #txhsfb
@dctf
Matt Stepp
@Matt_Stepp817
So I'm basically counting 195 UIL 11man games scheduled for Thur night....a typical Thursday slate during the season has about 60 games total #txhsfb
@dctf
Did we fast forward to spring??
Severe weather is pretty common in October and November in the south.In fact SE Texas on average gets more tornadoes in the Fall than it does in the Spring.Its just in the last decade the severe weather season that we typically get in Fall has not really been as active as normal.Climatology wise the active storm pattern we've been in so far this Fall is more normal than the several dry Fall seasons we've seen the last decade.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4480
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022
A mix of MVFR to VFR cigs expected for the rest of the day, with
cigs possibly lowering to IFR over portions of SE TX during the
overnight hours. There is also the chance for reduced vis due to
patchy fog developing overnight into early Thu morning. Areas
along and to the west of the I-45 corridor look to be the most
susceptible for fog formation at this time. Otherwise, expect
E-SE winds at 10 KTS or less today, becoming light and VRB
overnight, and strengthening back again to around 10 KTS shortly
after sunrise Thu.
24
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022
A mix of MVFR to VFR cigs expected for the rest of the day, with
cigs possibly lowering to IFR over portions of SE TX during the
overnight hours. There is also the chance for reduced vis due to
patchy fog developing overnight into early Thu morning. Areas
along and to the west of the I-45 corridor look to be the most
susceptible for fog formation at this time. Otherwise, expect
E-SE winds at 10 KTS or less today, becoming light and VRB
overnight, and strengthening back again to around 10 KTS shortly
after sunrise Thu.
24
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Hmmm
- Attachments
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Looks like the heaviest totals of rain will once again be into the Golden Triangle and into LA. Go figure.
Not very often that SPC does an update to the Day 3 outlook. A moderate risk may be coming for those north of us. Wouldn't be surprised to see portions of SE Texas put into an enhanced risk also.(Bryan/College station is on the southern edge of the enhanced risk area.)
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA...
AMENDED FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND EASTWARD SHIFT.
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday into Friday
night across portions of the southern and central Plains into
portions of the ArklaTex. Scattered damaging gusts, hail and a few
tornadoes will be possible.
...19z Update...
Confidence has increased that the large-scale upper trough will
eject eastward faster than previous forecast guidance suggested. As
the upper trough is forecast to continue to intensify, increasingly
robust low and mid-level wind fields are expected to overspread a
destabilizing warm sector across much of central and northeast TX.
The northeastern extent of the larger buoyancy is still somewhat
uncertain, but strong forcing for ascent will likely support
numerous thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts across
portions of eastern OK, western AR and far southern MO. Confidence
is highest that a strongly forced QLCS will move eastward near the
cold front from early afternoon, and towards the Mississippi River
Valley overnight. A 50+ kt low-level jet and large looping
hodographs will favor damaging wind/mesovortex potential with the
QLCS. The tornado threat remains less certain and is tied to the
conditional risk for warm sector supercells ahead of the line, along
with the magnitude of destabilization, and open warm-sector forcing.
However, large 0-1km SRH (250+ m2/s2) and the potential for
supercells does suggest a conditional risk for tornadoes (possibly
significant). An Enhanced risk for mainly strong damaging wind gusts
has been added for storms late Friday through early Saturday
morning. The Slight Risk has also been expanded east for greater
severe potential through the overnight hours with the QLCS.