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November 2022

Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:17 am
by tireman4
The month we give thanks for all and everything. Shall it cool? Cold? Warm? Wet? We shall see

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 4:08 pm
by Cpv17
tireman4 wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:17 am The month we give thanks for all and everything. Shall it cool? Cold? Warm? Wet? We shall see
Most likely above average temps with below normal precipitation and 2 decent fronts with fast rebounds.

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 4:27 pm
by Stratton20
I think it will be near normal to slightly below normal in terms of temps!, just my two cents

Re: November 2022

Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2022 11:37 am
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 4:08 pm
tireman4 wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:17 am The month we give thanks for all and everything. Shall it cool? Cold? Warm? Wet? We shall see
Most likely above average temps with below normal precipitation and 2 decent fronts with fast rebounds.
That's likely to continue all winter.

Re: November 2022

Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2022 11:47 am
by Stratton20
DoctorMu eh no, in fact their are some indications it could be colder than normal for the central US including Texas in the winter,

Re: November 2022

Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2022 11:58 am
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 11:47 am DoctorMu eh no, in fact their are some indications it could be colder than normal for the central US including Texas in the winter,
If you want cold then you’re gonna need an SSW to occur.

Re: November 2022

Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:02 pm
by Stratton20
CPV17 I follow Roy Ponder who is an outstanding meteorologist in Texas and he had a video talking about this winter, talked about how long range guidance was suggesting blocking would set up over alaska , definitely could help to dump some pretty cold air into the US, im just not buying the outlook that this winter will be warm, heck even the CPC 3 month outlook isnt that bad, only slightly above normal temps to even just normal for us, ive seen worse outlooks

Re: November 2022

Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 2:51 pm
by DoctorMu
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:02 pm CPV17 I follow Roy Ponder who is an outstanding meteorologist in Texas and he had a video talking about this winter, talked about how long range guidance was suggesting blocking would set up over alaska , definitely could help to dump some pretty cold air into the US, im just not buying the outlook that this winter will be warm, heck even the CPC 3 month outlook isnt that bad, only slightly above normal temps to even just normal for us, ive seen worse outlooks
That's Ouija Board stuff in a La Nina winter.

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 10:01 am
by Iceresistance
Could be a wet start for SE Texas, even though that the bulk of the QPF appears to be just offshore

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 2:53 pm
by Stratton20
Im going to back track on my original November post and say its going to br a blow torch month, ridging dominates the entire month with all the arctic air staying bottled up in Canada,

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 3:40 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Oct 29, 2022 2:53 pm Im going to back track on my original November post and say its going to br a blow torch month, ridging dominates the entire month with all the arctic air staying bottled up in Canada,
Couldn’t care less as long as we get some rain. Which might happen. Odds looking better for rain than cold.

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 3:51 pm
by Cpv17
I think for those of you that want cold there might be a decent cooldown coming around mid to late November.

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 3:54 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 its going to be hard to get any sort of significant cooldown here unless when can get the PNA to go to neutral, looks like the euro is hinting at cold air building in canada, but slides more towards the western US due to that + PNA

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2022 2:21 pm
by Stratton20
Boy that 12z Euro sure looks nice😁😁

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:48 pm
by brazoriatx
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 2:21 pm Boy that 12z Euro sure looks nice😁😁
Can't just say that then leave us hanging

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:01 pm
by Stratton20
brazoriatx Euro 12z has an arctic blast, and we get a significant cool down towards the end of the run 1043 Mb arctic high coming down, thats a pretty strong high for november

Re: November 2022

Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2022 7:13 pm
by Iceresistance
Looks like someone needs to get a kayak soon! :D

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WOW.png

Re: November 2022

Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2022 12:37 pm
by Stratton20
Man that is a incredible run by the GFS, cold through its entire run, too bad its not likely going to come south, ridging over the south central US will stop any arctic airmass from penetrating far south, depressing seeing all that magenta and purple colors building in the northern US, but not able to come south🥲

Re: November 2022

Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:10 pm
by DoctorMu
Expect largely warm, relatively dry for the next 10 days up in the NW territories.

40% chance or rain tomorrow in Houston as a coastal trough slides through tomorrow.

There's a weak UL trough this weekend and cold front. A definite maybe for Saturday.

The next more vigorous front is progged for the 10th.

Re: November 2022

Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:27 pm
by Stratton20
DoctorMu that could be a rather strong front, models havw some pretty cold air behind that front, though not sure if that front makes it through, ridging over the gulf and mexico will make it hard for any sort of “ cold air mass” to make it far south, we need the PNA to go neutral