November 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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djmike
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Lots of rain last two days! Many areas covered with 4-5” with SE Houston seeing nearly 8”. Hopefully we can dry out a bit and salvage our second half of the weekend and vacation.
72906541-E5F7-48E0-AC30-A4B1E33CA7ED.jpeg
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Stratton20
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Enjoy this last rainy day, ridging looks to take control for a while next week as well as warm conditions prevail, cold air should stay locked in the northern US for the foreseeable future
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djmike
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Last big cell went over . I finish at 4.96”.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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snowman65
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:36 pm
snowman65 wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:37 am
brazoriatx wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:41 am Not much of a cold front that blew through huh?
Im not seeing any "cold" fronts through at least Christmas.
Lmao okay. We’ll see how this ages.
Going to age well, unfortunately.
Stratton20
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snowman65 no its not lmao
Cromagnum
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Let brown patch and root rot commence.
TexasBreeze
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Is aging well the same as the foreseeable future? That ridge does look stout for awhile. We should see mini hits of cool air, but nothing freezing anytime soon. Christmas is still aways away though much can change by then.
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jasons2k
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1.67” here.
Cpv17
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TexasBreeze wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:18 pm Is aging well the same as the foreseeable future? That ridge does look stout for awhile. We should see mini hits of cool air, but nothing freezing anytime soon. Christmas is still aways away though much can change by then.
The CPC keeps us with above average rainfall for the next 2 weeks. I believe with the -SOI and the expected transition to El Niño coming soon, this might be the beginning of a long term wet pattern. Guess we’ll see.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:34 pm1.67” here.
I swear it never rains much where you live. We got 4.75” since Thursday and 7” in the past 10 days.
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sambucol
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From Larry Cosgrove posted at 6:50pm CST 11/26/22

Overview

James Bay Vortex, check. Strong dual blocking ridge in the Arctic Circle, check. Active southern branch storm track, check.

The ingredients for a wintry period of weather are all present for a long period of cold air and frozen precipitation potential across the lower 48 states. As stated before, the start of December will be relatively mild outside of the Pacific Northwest and the Prairie Provinces. But the immense, widespread chill in those regions is symptomatic of how conditions will evolve across the lower 48 states starting in about a week or so. The only protection against an Arctic invasion, so to speak, is the development of a subtropical high over the Greater Antilles and Strait of Yucatan. This heat ridge formation was overdone by the numerical model groups when the last big cold shot struck. Given that the positive 500MB height anomalies over Greenland, Northern Canada, and the Gulf of Alaska are so strong and well-situated, storm energy will consolidate into a cAk vortex over or near James Bay. That feature is classic in winter synoptic climatology, associated with widespread bitter cold, most especially in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Think back to the winters of 1993-94 and 2013-14 for examples.

Now if for some reason the ECMWF panels are right with a summer-like heat ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, the cold would not get any further than an Interstate 40 line (Albuquerque NM to Wilmington NC). But that broad area of snow cover, the deepest in many years and about to get a lot deeper, will be an air mass refrigerant. Cold air is heavier and denser than the tropical regime, and if a storm comes along between the two late next week, the ridge complex will be crushed. I know that the various computer schemes have been erratic as of late. But when all of the numerical models show that familiar high-latitude warmth in the upper atmosphere, the most recent cold projections of the GFS and GGEM series, with the cold working down to the Gulf Coast, should verify in the December 7 - 21 period.

BOTTOM LINE

I also suspect that a widespread, and potent, ice and snow event will occur in the 11-15 day period. Track and coverage scenarios at this distance, of course, would be hard to define, though I am leaning toward a Colorado/Trinidad path of some sort with a wide variety of precipitation types from the Rocky Mountains into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. As that system interacts with the likely presence of the aforementioned James Bay vortex, the cold numbers you see now in far northern Canada will be displaced. California and Florida should avoid the cold regime. But areas of North America to the right of the Rocky Mountains will be re-acquainted with the need for heating, heavy clothes, boots and hot chocolate.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:58 am snowman65 no its not lmao
He does the same **** posting every winter regardless of what may be on the horizon. Not worth your time.

Crappy season for the Ags but tonight was fun. Geaux to hell LSU! :D
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Stratton20
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MontgomeryCoWxI was at the game! Perfect weather and just a great atmosphere all around
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sambucol
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Interesting Pow Ponder video https://youtu.be/ttjwkI_ZeXs
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 11:18 am MontgomeryCoWxI was at the game! Perfect weather and just a great atmosphere all around
They need to buyout Jimbos contract. Plenty of rich millionaires/billionaires of alumni/boosters could get together and do it.

Meanwhile in the weather department, I feel like the models are going to be really inconsistent in the coming days. Could see a lot of wild swings.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I fully agree with you’re first statement, im sick of Jimbo, things are starting to line up for the first 2 weeks of december, could be very cold, the trend today has been for the SE ridge being weaker, GFS and the Euro start to break it down, and that should lead to the arctic air eventually being able to plunge south, also some really impressive blocking is showing up on some ensembles , interesting days ahead
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:23 pm Cpv17 I fully agree with you’re first statement, im sick of Jimbo, things are starting to line up for the first 2 weeks of december, could be very cold, the trend today has been for the SE ridge being weaker, GFS and the Euro start to break it down, and that should lead to the arctic air eventually being able to plunge south, also some really impressive blocking is showing up on some ensembles , interesting days ahead
Just going to depend on the placement of the strongest ridging imo.
Iceresistance
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I have made a special nickname to the SE Ridge that only applies in the Winter

"The Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge"!
Cpv17
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Looking like a torch the first week of December.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 4:30 pm Looking like a torch the first week of December.
Short lived, but pretty typical during a Nina when big cold fronts are on the horizon.

It is becoming more frequent that we warm up into the 70s/80s before a plunge in temps.
Team #NeverSummer
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