November 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:19 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:53 am
What I would have given to have some rain like this at least once during the hell summer.
Amen.

Cpv17
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Re: November 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Nov 23, 2022 7:46 am

DoctorMu wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:19 am
Iceresistance wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 6:36 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:23 pm


I was afraid of that. Go away! Come back in the summer!
Not if you need it to break the drought. ;)
We're not in a drought locally now.
I’m nowhere really near the point where I’m going to turn down rain. And I bet there’s still some areas around that are at least in D0 or D1.

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don
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Re: November 2022

Post by don » Wed Nov 23, 2022 8:19 am

From HGX this morning.
Our next rain-maker is a shortwave trough currently entering the
Northern Rockies that will dive towards the Southern Rockies and
exit over the Panhandle of Oklahoma late tonight, generating a
strong leeside surface low over the Southern Plains. As this mid
level shortwave trough enters TX, it`s expected to become a cutoff
low that will continue to linger through the short-term forecast and
into the weekend. The resultant surface trough and cold front will
be over West Texas on Thursday morning and will push through our
area late Thursday evening. Continuous PVA from this cutoff low and
favorable upper level divergence from a 300mb jet streak aloft will
bring widespread showers to Southeast Texas on Thursday. These
showers will start across our northern counties during the early
morning hours on Thursday and quickly spread towards the coast. By
sunrise, there will be a 40-70% coverage in showers for Southeast
Texas with highest values north of I-10. At the same time, a warm
front just off the TX/LA coast will bring widespread showers along
the coast Thursday morning that will spread further inland
throughout the day as well. Some hi-res guidance is also hinting at
this warm front generating a weak coastal low that will push inland
and towards the I-10 corridor. Overall, convergence from these
mesoscale features will occur over the I-10 corridor on Thursday.
This warm front and potential coastal low will be the focus of a
veering low-level wind profile that could generate some stronger
showers and storms and a marginal risk for severe storms. It`ll be a
typical setup where low-level bulk shear will be ample at 40-60+
kts, but SBCAPE and MLCAPE will be lacking. Widespread showers and
cloud cover should keep sfc temperatures and CAPE values relatively
low, but the shear alone could generate an isolated strong to severe
storm across Southeast Texas. In addition to the possibility for
severe storms, there is the possibility for localized flooding on
Thursday. PWs quickly climb to 1.6+ inches and storm motion vectors
parallel to the frontal boundary, indicating a strong possibility
for training storms. Therefore, WPC has placed areas east of
Burleson and Jackson Counties in a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall. This forecast sounds a little messy, because it is given
all these features to track. It`s important to stay weather aware
this Thanksgiving Holiday, so make sure to take extra precautions if
traveling and to have multiple ways to receive warnings.

Walts

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don
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Re: November 2022

Post by don » Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:46 am

12Z models have come in less progressive and more south with the storm system.Friday now looks to be a washout also due to the slower movement.Here are some QPF amounts from some of the 12z models.
Attachments
Screenshot 2022-11-23 at 09-50-51 Models NAM 3km CONUS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-11-23 at 09-51-03 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-11-23 at 09-53-41 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-11-23 at 10-20-22 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

Cpv17
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Re: November 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:51 am

don wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:46 am
12Z models have come in less progressive and more south with the storm system.Friday now looks to be a washout also due to the slower movement.Here are some QPF amounts from some of the 12z models.
The -NAO is working its magic.

869MB
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Re: November 2022

Post by 869MB » Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:54 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:51 am
don wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:46 am
12Z models have come in less progressive and more south with the storm system.Friday now looks to be a washout also due to the slower movement.Here are some QPF amounts from some of the 12z models.
The -NAO is working its magic.
So is the SOI…the lowest I’ve seen all year.

869MB
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Re: November 2022

Post by 869MB » Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:56 am

I put this in the December Thread:

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave ... ndly=false

Iceresistance
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Re: November 2022

Post by Iceresistance » Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:24 am

869MB wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:54 am
Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:51 am
don wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:46 am
12Z models have come in less progressive and more south with the storm system.Friday now looks to be a washout also due to the slower movement.Here are some QPF amounts from some of the 12z models.
The -NAO is working its magic.
So is the SOI…the lowest I’ve seen all year.
The lowest daily SOI was at -30 a couple of weeks ago

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don
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Re: November 2022

Post by don » Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:39 pm

12Z EURO still shows some high rainfall totals like its 6Z run this morning. The WPC has also increased rainfall amounts over the area...
Attachments
p168i.gif
Screenshot 2022-11-23 at 12-13-28 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

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jasons2k
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Re: November 2022

Post by jasons2k » Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:01 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:19 am
Iceresistance wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 6:36 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:23 pm


I was afraid of that. Go away! Come back in the summer!
Not if you need it to break the drought. ;)
We're not in a drought locally now.
Ummm…yes we are. Check the drought monitor - hot off the presses, a day early. Brazos Valley and especially points west still need rain.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?TX
Attachments
99B9002F-D366-4BA5-A4A7-7009A849EB4F.png
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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