November 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: November 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:50 pm

snowman65 wrote:
Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:31 pm
next 10 days just looks blah and dumb.
High wind and tornado threat next Tuesday/Wednesday. Cold could be on the way in the 10-14 day period.

Cpv17
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Re: November 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:04 pm

David Tillman on 13 just showed some future cast graphic and it only showed us getting an additional 1” of rain. Not sure why there’s flood watches posted and why the WPC issued a moderate risk if that’s the case. David said the heaviest rain will be offshore along the stalled front.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Stratton20
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Re: November 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:04 pm

The 00z GFS now joins the Euro in showing a major winter storm /ice storm developing over the state in the day 8-9 range, we got something to watch as the week progresses

Cpv17
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Re: November 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:17 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:04 pm
The 00z GFS now joins the Euro in showing a major winter storm /ice storm developing over the state in the day 8-9 range, we got something to watch as the week progresses
Unfortunately the air looks to be shallow. Not good at all.

Stratton20
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Re: November 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:23 pm

Cpv17 yeah i just checked the ice accumulation for that rub of the GFS, absolutely brutal, definitely would not want that to occur

txsnowmaker
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Re: November 2022

Post by txsnowmaker » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:29 am

Texas is a big state. For those who haven’t looked at the actual GFS maps, translation is that from 0z run referred to above, there would be absolutely no ice or frozen accumulation of any kind whatsoever in Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 12500&fh=6

Stratton20
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Re: November 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:35 am

txsnowmaker no but on this “run” their certainly would be accumulations in our NW counties, now absolutely we got a long ways to go here, and heck i could wake up and the 06z GFS drops it, heck i wouldn’t even want that run to verify, ice storms are the worst

I use pivotal weather because that site allows you to zoom in much closer when looking at storm systems over a state, i can zoom in and see if any counties are getting rain or some sort of frozen precipitation, its a great site

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jasons2k
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Re: November 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:42 am

0.37” here so far.

txsnowmaker
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Re: November 2022

Post by txsnowmaker » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:57 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:35 am
txsnowmaker no but on this “run” their certainly would be accumulations in our NW counties, now absolutely we got a long ways to go here, and heck i could wake up and the 06z GFS drops it, heck i wouldn’t even want that run to verify, ice storms are the worst

I use pivotal weather because that site allows you to zoom in much closer when looking at storm systems over a state, i can zoom in and see if any counties are getting rain or some sort of frozen precipitation, its a great site
I just think if we’re going to kick around terms like “absolutely brutal” after a run or two, it would benefit the readers of this forum, and the integrity of this site, to give more description of where exactly those conditions are depicted in that particular run. That’s why I pointed out it doesn’t include Houston at all.

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Re: November 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:16 am

the only reason im even bringing this up despite the 00z Euro dropping the system, is because it kind of fits the time frame that some meteorologists like Larry Cosgrove are talking about, id rather the GFS be dead wrong, no one wants an ice storm lol

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