November 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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The month we give thanks for all and everything. Shall it cool? Cold? Warm? Wet? We shall see
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:17 am The month we give thanks for all and everything. Shall it cool? Cold? Warm? Wet? We shall see
Most likely above average temps with below normal precipitation and 2 decent fronts with fast rebounds.
Stratton20
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I think it will be near normal to slightly below normal in terms of temps!, just my two cents
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 4:08 pm
tireman4 wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:17 am The month we give thanks for all and everything. Shall it cool? Cold? Warm? Wet? We shall see
Most likely above average temps with below normal precipitation and 2 decent fronts with fast rebounds.
That's likely to continue all winter.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu eh no, in fact their are some indications it could be colder than normal for the central US including Texas in the winter,
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 11:47 am DoctorMu eh no, in fact their are some indications it could be colder than normal for the central US including Texas in the winter,
If you want cold then you’re gonna need an SSW to occur.
Stratton20
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CPV17 I follow Roy Ponder who is an outstanding meteorologist in Texas and he had a video talking about this winter, talked about how long range guidance was suggesting blocking would set up over alaska , definitely could help to dump some pretty cold air into the US, im just not buying the outlook that this winter will be warm, heck even the CPC 3 month outlook isnt that bad, only slightly above normal temps to even just normal for us, ive seen worse outlooks
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:02 pm CPV17 I follow Roy Ponder who is an outstanding meteorologist in Texas and he had a video talking about this winter, talked about how long range guidance was suggesting blocking would set up over alaska , definitely could help to dump some pretty cold air into the US, im just not buying the outlook that this winter will be warm, heck even the CPC 3 month outlook isnt that bad, only slightly above normal temps to even just normal for us, ive seen worse outlooks
That's Ouija Board stuff in a La Nina winter.
Iceresistance
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Could be a wet start for SE Texas, even though that the bulk of the QPF appears to be just offshore
Stratton20
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Im going to back track on my original November post and say its going to br a blow torch month, ridging dominates the entire month with all the arctic air staying bottled up in Canada,
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Oct 29, 2022 2:53 pm Im going to back track on my original November post and say its going to br a blow torch month, ridging dominates the entire month with all the arctic air staying bottled up in Canada,
Couldn’t care less as long as we get some rain. Which might happen. Odds looking better for rain than cold.
Cpv17
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I think for those of you that want cold there might be a decent cooldown coming around mid to late November.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 its going to be hard to get any sort of significant cooldown here unless when can get the PNA to go to neutral, looks like the euro is hinting at cold air building in canada, but slides more towards the western US due to that + PNA
Stratton20
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Boy that 12z Euro sure looks nice😁😁
brazoriatx
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Oct 30, 2022 2:21 pm Boy that 12z Euro sure looks nice😁😁
Can't just say that then leave us hanging
Stratton20
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brazoriatx Euro 12z has an arctic blast, and we get a significant cool down towards the end of the run 1043 Mb arctic high coming down, thats a pretty strong high for november
Iceresistance
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Looks like someone needs to get a kayak soon! :D

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WOW.png
Stratton20
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Man that is a incredible run by the GFS, cold through its entire run, too bad its not likely going to come south, ridging over the south central US will stop any arctic airmass from penetrating far south, depressing seeing all that magenta and purple colors building in the northern US, but not able to come south🥲
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DoctorMu
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Expect largely warm, relatively dry for the next 10 days up in the NW territories.

40% chance or rain tomorrow in Houston as a coastal trough slides through tomorrow.

There's a weak UL trough this weekend and cold front. A definite maybe for Saturday.

The next more vigorous front is progged for the 10th.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu that could be a rather strong front, models havw some pretty cold air behind that front, though not sure if that front makes it through, ridging over the gulf and mexico will make it hard for any sort of “ cold air mass” to make it far south, we need the PNA to go neutral
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