November 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 5293
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

djmike wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:19 am Wheres todays rains?
Most of the action today will be north and east of us. Better chance in Beaumont though. Louisiana and Mississippi will get most of it. Big time tornado outbreak.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

redneckweather wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:08 am Here we go...same thing every winter season. Most of the cold will go east and maybe once or twice we get a good glancing blow. There is nothing out of the ordinary that will be coming down over the next month or so but we are all weather lovers so it's fun to look at.
The last two Februarys were colder than normal in CLL. One historically so.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

txsnowmaker wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:14 am
redneckweather wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:08 am Here we go...same thing every winter season. Most of the cold will go east and maybe once or twice we get a good glancing blow. There is nothing out of the ordinary that will be coming down over the next month or so but we are all weather lovers so it's fun to look at.
I would take seasonal highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, especially after topping out at 80 today.
That's perfect weather for me.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

txsnowmaker wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:21 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:04 am You’ll never hear me complain about temps in the 70’s or 80’s - I don’t care what month it is. Those temps are perfect. If I wanted highs in the 30’s I’d take a trip up to the mountains where it belongs.
And if I wanted 70s and 80s in winter I’d move to the Rio Grande Valley or Florida.
I never complain about too cool or cold around here...


...because Summer 2022. The worst/hottest & driest I've seen in my 30 years in Texas.
Stratton20
Posts: 4248
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Its shaping up to be a very scary day in terms of severe weather potential and a tornado outbreak possible, some areas in mississippi might get upgraded to a high risk of severe weather, that is extraordinarily rare, and a PDS tornado watch is coming, hope no one here has family and friends living in that area
Cpv17
Posts: 5293
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:51 am Its shaping up to be a very scary day in terms of severe weather potential and a tornado outbreak possible, some areas in mississippi might get upgraded to a high risk of severe weather, that is extraordinarily rare, and a PDS tornado watch is coming, hope no one here has family and friends living in that area
Captainbarbossa19 is there attending Mississippi State University in Starkville, MS.
TexasBreeze
Posts: 942
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

Seems like every year it is just 2 weeks away from real cold air in December then it becomes the new year all of a sudden without anything noteworthy. I sure hope for at least a cool Christmas and New Years and not 80 degrees. That would not be the right temp on Christmas day!
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5396
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

txsnowmaker wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:21 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:04 am You’ll never hear me complain about temps in the 70’s or 80’s - I don’t care what month it is. Those temps are perfect. If I wanted highs in the 30’s I’d take a trip up to the mountains where it belongs.
And if I wanted 70s and 80s in winter I’d move to the Rio Grande Valley or Florida.
70’s are not uncommon in SE Texas in winter. 30’s (for highs) are.

I’m leaning more towards Hawaii as the perfect spot once the kids are done with school. I grew up in Florida, planned to relocate back there, travelled all over the Caribbean and Central America to explore other options, never felt 100% comfortable going ex-patriate like my best friend.

Then we discovered Hawaii. God saved the best for last. I’m totally in love. The weather is perfect. The little microclimates are amazing. And the scenery…OMG nothing like it except maybe Tahiti, Bora Bora, Bali or St Lucia. Yep, I could do 70-80 24/7 year round, no problem.

Mele Kalikimaka!
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5396
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:23 am
djmike wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:19 am Wheres todays rains?
Most of the action today will be north and east of us. Better chance in Beaumont though. Louisiana and Mississippi will get most of it. Big time tornado outbreak.
That and the forecast busted again, which is why he is asking. This is a change. I had a 70% chance of rain advertised on Today/Tuesday for days and then yanked again at the last minute.
Stratton20
Posts: 4248
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

I would love to visit hawaii, unfortunately the recent volcanic eruptions over their have pretty much crushed that thought, but I am glad that the bulk of the rain should stay to the east of us, its nice being able to see the sun again haha
Cpv17
Posts: 5293
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:30 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:23 am
djmike wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:19 am Wheres todays rains?
Most of the action today will be north and east of us. Better chance in Beaumont though. Louisiana and Mississippi will get most of it. Big time tornado outbreak.
That and the forecast busted again, which is why he is asking. This is a change. I had a 70% chance of rain advertised on Today/Tuesday for days and then yanked again at the last minute.
Not sure why they had the percentages so high to begin with. There was nothing shown on the models that would warrant that, at least not from what I saw. I never expected much of anything for SE TX today.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5396
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Mesoscale Discussion 1979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291939Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated thunderstorm or two may produce hail and gusty
winds across southeast TX this afternoon. A watch is not expected at
this time.

DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms across southeast TX continue
to slowly intensify early this afternoon. The airmass across this
region is unseasonably moist with dewpoints in the 70s F. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and surface temperatures in the upper 70s F to
near 80 F are contributing to MLCAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg.
Strong vertical shear is present, with effective shear magnitudes
greater than 45 kt evident in region VWP data and 19z mesoanalysis
data. Overall this would support organized updrafts capable of large
hail. However, both large-scale and mesoscale ascent will remain
weak across the region the next several hours, with little focus for
supercell development until later tonight when a cold front shifts
southeast. Nevertheless, a storm or two may develop within a strong
warm advection regime. Any storm that does develop is expected to
quickly shift east/northeast toward Tornado Watch 572. Given the
conditional and isolated threat, a watch is not expected at this
time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 11/29/2022
Attachments
mcd1979.gif
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5396
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:32 pm I would love to visit hawaii, unfortunately the recent volcanic eruptions over their have pretty much crushed that thought, but I am glad that the bulk of the rain should stay to the east of us, its nice being able to see the sun again haha
Effects are isolated to the Big Island, and limited for now.
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

There is a tornado warning near Liberty, TX
dp6
Posts: 90
Joined: Sun May 24, 2020 5:32 pm
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:25 pm
70’s are not uncommon in SE Texas in winter. 30’s (for highs) are.
Bingo. I remember bikini watching on Galveston beach during one Christmas Break back in high school. Obviously doesn't happen every year, but not super rare, either.
dp6
Posts: 90
Joined: Sun May 24, 2020 5:32 pm
Contact:

Iceresistance wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:28 pm There is a tornado warning near Liberty, TX
Wow, pretty far west for activity, though not far from where the 5% level starts.
TexasBreeze
Posts: 942
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

The showers look to be ending around here already with drier air coming in from the west southwest. It is just beginning for areas to the east and northeast of here though.
Cromagnum
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

My yard is still a bog. We can miss the next round or two
Stratton20
Posts: 4248
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

12z EPS is looking better for colder conditions in the extended range fwiw
User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Posts: 401
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
Location: Starkville, MS
Contact:

Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now. :shock: I am monitoring closely the radar.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 6 guests