November 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:30 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:23 am
djmike wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:19 am Wheres todays rains?
Most of the action today will be north and east of us. Better chance in Beaumont though. Louisiana and Mississippi will get most of it. Big time tornado outbreak.
That and the forecast busted again, which is why he is asking. This is a change. I had a 70% chance of rain advertised on Today/Tuesday for days and then yanked again at the last minute.
Not sure why they had the percentages so high to begin with. There was nothing shown on the models that would warrant that, at least not from what I saw. I never expected much of anything for SE TX today.
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jasons2k
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Mesoscale Discussion 1979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291939Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated thunderstorm or two may produce hail and gusty
winds across southeast TX this afternoon. A watch is not expected at
this time.

DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms across southeast TX continue
to slowly intensify early this afternoon. The airmass across this
region is unseasonably moist with dewpoints in the 70s F. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and surface temperatures in the upper 70s F to
near 80 F are contributing to MLCAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg.
Strong vertical shear is present, with effective shear magnitudes
greater than 45 kt evident in region VWP data and 19z mesoanalysis
data. Overall this would support organized updrafts capable of large
hail. However, both large-scale and mesoscale ascent will remain
weak across the region the next several hours, with little focus for
supercell development until later tonight when a cold front shifts
southeast. Nevertheless, a storm or two may develop within a strong
warm advection regime. Any storm that does develop is expected to
quickly shift east/northeast toward Tornado Watch 572. Given the
conditional and isolated threat, a watch is not expected at this
time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 11/29/2022
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:32 pm I would love to visit hawaii, unfortunately the recent volcanic eruptions over their have pretty much crushed that thought, but I am glad that the bulk of the rain should stay to the east of us, its nice being able to see the sun again haha
Effects are isolated to the Big Island, and limited for now.
Iceresistance
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There is a tornado warning near Liberty, TX
dp6
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:25 pm
70’s are not uncommon in SE Texas in winter. 30’s (for highs) are.
Bingo. I remember bikini watching on Galveston beach during one Christmas Break back in high school. Obviously doesn't happen every year, but not super rare, either.
dp6
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Iceresistance wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:28 pm There is a tornado warning near Liberty, TX
Wow, pretty far west for activity, though not far from where the 5% level starts.
TexasBreeze
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The showers look to be ending around here already with drier air coming in from the west southwest. It is just beginning for areas to the east and northeast of here though.
Cromagnum
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My yard is still a bog. We can miss the next round or two
Stratton20
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12z EPS is looking better for colder conditions in the extended range fwiw
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captainbarbossa19
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Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now. :shock: I am monitoring closely the radar.
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DoctorMu
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The Houston Chronicle had a story about water needs in Houston remain a concern.

I hope you all see rain this weekend and next week.

Reservoirs look in pretty good shape.

https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoir ... al/houston
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:42 pm 12z EPS is looking better for colder conditions in the extended range fwiw
Yep! More blocking over western Canada and the NW. Step in the right direction.
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djmike
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Well today was a whole lot of nothing! NWS had me at 70-80% all day. Just dropped it now to 60%. Looking at radar, seems like today/tonight will continue with nothing. Prayers for a bust NE of here!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Iceresistance
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November was a crazy month, one EF-4 from two outbreaks, and I had three days of snow in Central Oklahoma!
user:null
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The good news is that the recent rains since late October have helped in catching rainfall up regarding some first order weather sites. Hobby Airport, for instance, is now ~30 inches of rain, which is far more respectable than the ~20 or under it was earlier.
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djmike
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~On to December thread! Happy Holidays! 🎅🏻
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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