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Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 5:50 pm
by Stratton20
In addition to the Euro, their are quite a few GEFS ensemble members trying to show a significant winter storm setup over the state as we head closer toward the first week of December, something to watch out for as well,
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 5:53 pm
by brazoriatx
Thought a cold front was coming in?
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 6:38 pm
by jasons2k
brazoriatx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 5:53 pm
Thought a cold front was coming in?
It has here. It was 74 and feeling muggy earlier and about 2pm the temp dropped 10 degrees. Been holding at 61-62 since about 3 with a NE breeze.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 6:50 pm
by sambucol
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 5:50 pm
In addition to the Euro, their are quite a few GEFS ensemble members trying to show a significant winter storm setup over the state as we head closer toward the first week of December, something to watch out for as well,
The entire state for a possible winter storm?
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 6:54 pm
by Stratton20
Sambucol possibly, but its at the 9-12 day range, we just have to see the trends in the models over the next week or so, seeing the euro with its solution does raise an eyebrow for sure
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 7:14 pm
by Iceresistance
There is a moderate risk of flooding for Houston tomorrow.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 7:19 pm
by Cpv17
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 7:14 pm
There is a moderate risk of flooding for Houston tomorrow.
I haven’t been home yet but reports are coming outta my area in Wharton County that some places have water up to homes already.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:01 pm
by Cromagnum
I guess we already covered most other drought busters with holiday floods. Why not Turkey Day now too.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:39 pm
by sambucol
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 6:54 pm
Sambucol possibly, but its at the 9-12 day range, we just have to see the trends in the models over the next week or so, seeing the euro with its solution does raise an eyebrow for sure
My guess is that is what Larry Cosgrove was referring to around Dec 9 & 10 about possible winter precip just north of there then.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:31 pm
by snowman65
next 10 days just looks blah and dumb.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:50 pm
by Cpv17
snowman65 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:31 pm
next 10 days just looks blah and dumb.
High wind and tornado threat next Tuesday/Wednesday. Cold could be on the way in the 10-14 day period.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:04 pm
by Cpv17
David Tillman on 13 just showed some future cast graphic and it only showed us getting an additional 1” of rain. Not sure why there’s flood watches posted and why the WPC issued a moderate risk if that’s the case. David said the heaviest rain will be offshore along the stalled front.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:04 pm
by Stratton20
The 00z GFS now joins the Euro in showing a major winter storm /ice storm developing over the state in the day 8-9 range, we got something to watch as the week progresses
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:17 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:04 pm
The 00z GFS now joins the Euro in showing a major winter storm /ice storm developing over the state in the day 8-9 range, we got something to watch as the week progresses
Unfortunately the air looks to be shallow. Not good at all.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:23 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 yeah i just checked the ice accumulation for that rub of the GFS, absolutely brutal, definitely would not want that to occur
Re: November 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:29 am
by txsnowmaker
Texas is a big state. For those who haven’t looked at the actual GFS maps, translation is that from 0z run referred to above, there would be absolutely no ice or frozen accumulation of any kind whatsoever in Houston.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 12500&fh=6
Re: November 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:35 am
by Stratton20
txsnowmaker no but on this “run” their certainly would be accumulations in our NW counties, now absolutely we got a long ways to go here, and heck i could wake up and the 06z GFS drops it, heck i wouldn’t even want that run to verify, ice storms are the worst
I use pivotal weather because that site allows you to zoom in much closer when looking at storm systems over a state, i can zoom in and see if any counties are getting rain or some sort of frozen precipitation, its a great site
Re: November 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:42 am
by jasons2k
0.37” here so far.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:57 am
by txsnowmaker
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:35 am
txsnowmaker no but on this “run” their certainly would be accumulations in our NW counties, now absolutely we got a long ways to go here, and heck i could wake up and the 06z GFS drops it, heck i wouldn’t even want that run to verify, ice storms are the worst
I use pivotal weather because that site allows you to zoom in much closer when looking at storm systems over a state, i can zoom in and see if any counties are getting rain or some sort of frozen precipitation, its a great site
I just think if we’re going to kick around terms like “absolutely brutal” after a run or two, it would benefit the readers of this forum, and the integrity of this site, to give more description of where exactly those conditions are depicted in that particular run. That’s why I pointed out it doesn’t include Houston at all.
Re: November 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:16 am
by Stratton20
the only reason im even bringing this up despite the 00z Euro dropping the system, is because it kind of fits the time frame that some meteorologists like Larry Cosgrove are talking about, id rather the GFS be dead wrong, no one wants an ice storm lol