November 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:31 pm next 10 days just looks blah and dumb.
High wind and tornado threat next Tuesday/Wednesday. Cold could be on the way in the 10-14 day period.
Cpv17
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David Tillman on 13 just showed some future cast graphic and it only showed us getting an additional 1” of rain. Not sure why there’s flood watches posted and why the WPC issued a moderate risk if that’s the case. David said the heaviest rain will be offshore along the stalled front.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
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The 00z GFS now joins the Euro in showing a major winter storm /ice storm developing over the state in the day 8-9 range, we got something to watch as the week progresses
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:04 pm The 00z GFS now joins the Euro in showing a major winter storm /ice storm developing over the state in the day 8-9 range, we got something to watch as the week progresses
Unfortunately the air looks to be shallow. Not good at all.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yeah i just checked the ice accumulation for that rub of the GFS, absolutely brutal, definitely would not want that to occur
txsnowmaker
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Texas is a big state. For those who haven’t looked at the actual GFS maps, translation is that from 0z run referred to above, there would be absolutely no ice or frozen accumulation of any kind whatsoever in Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 12500&fh=6
Stratton20
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txsnowmaker no but on this “run” their certainly would be accumulations in our NW counties, now absolutely we got a long ways to go here, and heck i could wake up and the 06z GFS drops it, heck i wouldn’t even want that run to verify, ice storms are the worst

I use pivotal weather because that site allows you to zoom in much closer when looking at storm systems over a state, i can zoom in and see if any counties are getting rain or some sort of frozen precipitation, its a great site
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jasons2k
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0.37” here so far.
txsnowmaker
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:35 am txsnowmaker no but on this “run” their certainly would be accumulations in our NW counties, now absolutely we got a long ways to go here, and heck i could wake up and the 06z GFS drops it, heck i wouldn’t even want that run to verify, ice storms are the worst

I use pivotal weather because that site allows you to zoom in much closer when looking at storm systems over a state, i can zoom in and see if any counties are getting rain or some sort of frozen precipitation, its a great site
I just think if we’re going to kick around terms like “absolutely brutal” after a run or two, it would benefit the readers of this forum, and the integrity of this site, to give more description of where exactly those conditions are depicted in that particular run. That’s why I pointed out it doesn’t include Houston at all.
Stratton20
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the only reason im even bringing this up despite the 00z Euro dropping the system, is because it kind of fits the time frame that some meteorologists like Larry Cosgrove are talking about, id rather the GFS be dead wrong, no one wants an ice storm lol
Cpv17
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Looks like the severe weather threat for next week shifted east. No longer includes the Houston area.
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djmike
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2.10” for my Thanksgiving Day In Beaumont. Lets see how today/tonight turnout!
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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sambucol
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:16 am the only reason im even bringing this up despite the 00z Euro dropping the system, is because it kind of fits the time frame that some meteorologists like Larry Cosgrove are talking about, id rather the GFS be dead wrong, no one wants an ice storm lol
Reminder that Larry did not say Houston for possible frozen
precip. He said specifically not too far north from here. Big difference.
Cpv17
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sambucol wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:26 am
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:16 am the only reason im even bringing this up despite the 00z Euro dropping the system, is because it kind of fits the time frame that some meteorologists like Larry Cosgrove are talking about, id rather the GFS be dead wrong, no one wants an ice storm lol


Reminder that Larry did not say Houston for possible frozen
precip. He said specifically not too far north from here. Big difference.

He may have said that to you but in his write up to the general public, he didn’t mention that. I don’t like long range forecasts. There’s no way someone could accurately predict in 10+ days out what’s going to happen and where it’s going to happen. And I would personally only put my confidence level at maybe a 3 or 4 about that cold snap actually verifying. It’s still too far out and doesn’t have consistent model support yet. But in the way Larry wrote, one would think there would definitely be chances for wintry weather in southeast Texas. That was very aggressive wording he was using.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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don
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Fortunately most of the day should be pretty quiet. It won't be till this evening that things pickup.
image5 (1).png
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don
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Picked up 1.68". So far east Harris county are the winners where 4-6 inches of rain fell yesterday.
brazoriatx
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Not much of a cold front that blew through huh?
Cpv17
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brazoriatx wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:41 am Not much of a cold front that blew through huh?
It wasn’t supposed to be.
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snowman65
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brazoriatx wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:41 am Not much of a cold front that blew through huh?
Im not seeing any "cold" fronts through at least Christmas.
Stratton20
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Apparently some of the KHOU meteorologists are getting blasted by the public for cutting in on the bills game last night due to a tornado warning, gotta love it when entitlement over a game is more important than safety lol
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