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Models are beginning to break down the SE Ridge faster, arctic air has been getting a little further south on the past few GFS, first week of december looks above average here, but my money is on a very cold december for Texas after that first week

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 5:02 pm Models are beginning to break down the SE Ridge faster, arctic air has been getting a little further south on the past few GFS, first week of december looks above average here, but my money is on a very cold december for Texas after that first week

Another winter season, another season of noise from the GFS breaking down the ridge too early. I’d put my money on that for awhile.

Jasons2k its not just one model, the euro is too, that warm up will be very brief
Even the latest EPS guidance has trended colder than normal after the first week of december, you warm weather lovers better enjoy the next few weeks, because it wont be around for too too long

The cold signal is definitely there on the ensembles past 9–10 days but it’s not really that strong of one. The -NAO is going absolutely bananas.

We've been getting a lot of overrun and rain for a La Nina "winter." Each one is different.

Rain here was light and about 1.25 inches. That was just fine. Everything is watered or soaked well enough.

I finished with 1.4 inches of rain

DFW is now above normal for 2022 rainfall, isn't that wild?

I am thinking December will be a roller coaster ride.

I don’t really like what I see in the models to get the cold down this far south. I think it’ll stay up north but the dam will likely break at some point. Just a guessing game as to when. The -NAO alone is not enough to get the cold down here.

Cpv17 looking at the PNA, its current negative right now but its forecast to get closer to neutral in about 2-3 weeks, that is one thing that could work in favor for us, but until we get blocking to set up in the right position and this pesky SE Ridge to break down, we aren’t getting cold any time soon

Here we go...same thing every winter season. Most of the cold will go east and maybe once or twice we get a good glancing blow. There is nothing out of the ordinary that will be coming down over the next month or so but we are all weather lovers so it's fun to look at.

redneckweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:08 am Here we go...same thing every winter season. Most of the cold will go east and maybe once or twice we get a good glancing blow. There is nothing out of the ordinary that will be coming down over the next month or so but we are all weather lovers so it's fun to look at.

I would take seasonal highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, especially after topping out at 80 today.

After the mess with the deep freeze we had in 2021, I couldn't care less if we ever got really cold again. Unless it snows, it's just problems.

Ill take highs in the 30’s any day, might hit 80 this week, absolutely disgusting

Looks like around December 7th there could be a decent front coming in.

Cpv17 dont think that front will make it here, SE ridge looks to be just too strong

You’ll never hear me complain about temps in the 70’s or 80’s - I don’t care what month it is. Those temps are perfect. If I wanted highs in the 30’s I’d take a trip up to the mountains where it belongs.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:43 am Cpv17 dont think that front will make it here, SE ridge looks to be just too strong

Well the GEFS has it coming in. I’m just going by the ensembles and not the operationals.

highs near 80 approaching december is disgusting lol, if I wanted 80’s id be headed to florida for a beach visit, because almost every cold snap avoids that state due to the SE ridge, i dont want insta sweat weather, if the GEFS is correct we could see highs in the upper 50ms to low 60’s with the next front, i will gladly take that!

Wheres todays rains?

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:04 am You’ll never hear me complain about temps in the 70’s or 80’s - I don’t care what month it is. Those temps are perfect. If I wanted highs in the 30’s I’d take a trip up to the mountains where it belongs.

And if I wanted 70s and 80s in winter I’d move to the Rio Grande Valley or Florida.