December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:26 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:05 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 8:59 pm

I have never heard of a cold blast coming from a positive EPO in my life. I don’t even see really how that’s scientifically possible. Guess this goes to show you I’m still very much a novice when it comes to the weather lol.

I’ve also never heard of AAM or the cryosphere :lol:

I know nothing about that. I hate when other people know so much more than me. Makes me feel dumb. Got some learning to do!

I’m not really focusing on the models run to run though. I just try to look at all the model runs throughout the entire day (CMC, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EPS) and kinda average them all out. I also look at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. I just haven’t seen anything on a consistent basis that gets me excited for anything. It’s hard for me to believe something and buy into it till I start seeing it cuz to me all that is is just talk. It seems like we’ve been talking about this for weeks already and it keeps getting pushed back. You’d figure by now it would start to show up on the CPC outlooks and see hints of it on the models. How much longer do we have to wait till it starts showing up in their outlooks and on the models? I’ve bought into this talk before and been burned so I have my guard up. That’s just how I defend myself from getting upset if it doesn’t happen.

The teleconnections are all lining up (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, trending towards a neutral PNA). So why aren’t we seeing anything on the models yet? Well the only thing I can see is because there’s not enough ridging over eastern Alaska and NW Canada.
Most cold blasts have occurred in negative EPO. What I am saying is that negative EPO is not the only factor. NAO, AO, and PNA are also a factor.

20th Century Reanalysis Daily Composites
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/compo ... .day.v2.pl

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)
https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Some cold blasts have occurred where EPO was positive. December 1963, January 1964, and January 1985.
I didn’t really start paying much attention to the weather till maybe 2010 so that’s well before my time lol

The EPO imo is the single most important factor in determining our winter weather. The ridging was positioned perfectly for the cold blast we had in November.
There is no doubt that EPO is a big factor. I have seen freezes with negative EPO and positive NAO and AO.
Stratton20
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GFS looks awful for cold, the euro has been looking encouraging at least for some quick shots of cold and the CMC is just down right frigid, ensembles still look meh, i remain pretty skeptical about this big pattern change, confidence for me has gone down to 30-40%
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:21 am GFS looks awful for cold, the euro has been looking encouraging at least for some quick shots of cold and the CMC is just down right frigid, ensembles still look meh, i remain pretty skeptical about this big pattern change, confidence for me has gone down to 30-40%
I frankly could care less about a huge pattern change at this point. I just want seasonal highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, not 80s like the next 4 days.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:21 am GFS looks awful for cold, the euro has been looking encouraging at least for some quick shots of cold and the CMC is just down right frigid, ensembles still look meh, i remain pretty skeptical about this big pattern change, confidence for me has gone down to 30-40%
The people that matter are blending the Canadian and Euro.

GFS doing its normal warm bias and huge changes run to run.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:04 pm I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.
Yeah I’ve noticed that there’s been a sizable difference between the Euro and GFS in the medium to long range past few days.
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Didnt the GFS just get a new upgrade as well? Regardless it does maybe appear the GFS may slowly be caving in, euro looks good as well, cold air building up in western canada
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:18 pm Didnt the GFS just get a new upgrade as well? Regardless it does maybe appear the GFS may slowly be caving in, euro looks good as well, cold air building up in western canada
It seems like the GFS gets a new upgrade every year.
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sambucol
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:08 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:04 pm I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.
If that means cold for SETX, I’m all for it.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:39 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:08 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:04 pm I do love what the 12z GFS is trying to do from 300 hours on. It links up with Greenland and the storm northeast of Hawaii is pumping a fierce ridge into Alaska.

Maybe the GFS is finally caving.
If that means cold for SETX, I’m all for it.
Its definitely below normal past mid month. Highs in the 40s and lows near freezing for my area with another front coming down at the end of the run.
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sambucol
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Sounds wonderful to me
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snowman65
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Been outside lately? BBRRR...LOL
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Stratton20
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12z EPS is encouraging , starting to spill the cold air further south now. in the medium range, compared to keeping it locked up in Canada or the Northern US
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I'm telling you... models will catch up (Euro and Canadian are already there, but I think the Euro will adjust a little colder).

Look at the recipe out there. It's all there for a below average last 15 days of the month.

I'm sure GFS will be schizo until late week this week. It will go from warmest to coldest and back again.


I'd lock in the Canadian right now, if I could.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Euro ENS is setting us up for a very cold Christmas week at the end of the run.

For once the cold timing should work out for us around the holidays.
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Stratton20
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gfs is definitely starting to cave
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sambucol
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Fantastic! What do the temps look like for SETX in general Christmas week?
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Sad state of affairs that we’re hoping and begging for a cool down…to anything below 70 in December. Meanwhile the rest of the state is at least generally in the upper 50s to low 60s at this 6:00 hour. What a crock.

Shorts and sweat to do yard work…this is for the birds.

MoCoWx, appreciate your piecing the puzzle together.
Cpv17
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sambucol wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:27 pm Fantastic! What do the temps look like for SETX in general Christmas week?
That’s way too far out to know.
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sambucol
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Cpv17, yes. I know. Just wondering what the models were showing temp wise that Montgomery was talking about.
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