December 2022

[txsnowmaker]

Yesterday ABC13 pushed the front’s arrival back from next Monday to Tuesday, now they’ve pushed it back from Tuesday to Wednesday. This weather and December humidity is getting old.

https://abc13.com/weather/

[Stratton20]

Todays model runs have delayed the cold air somewhat, not something you want to see

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Go back to my post about not watching surface temps. You will get 12-36 hour bounces back and forth this far out.

Upper air pattern still looks great, and the GFS flipped again back to a more Euro looking Pacific.

Again, nothing between now and Friday really matters in terms of model runs. Friday marks roughly 48-72 hours until our sensible weather starts hitting upstream of us.

[Cpv17]

Next Tuesday is my target date as of right now to when the step down process begins.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Point being…. Here is the change in 24 hours on the GEFS

[Iceresistance]

European site, but also works for the CONUS!

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... europe-fa/

[Ptarmigan]

Forecast models have trouble forecasting cold blasts. It is about as complex as hurricane forecasting.

[DoctorMu]

I’ve read discussions about the possibility of a December 1983 comparison as the year ends into 2023. If so, we have some winterizing to get done for our home.

December 1983 had 105 hours of freezing temperature. December 1989 had 56 hours of freezing temperature.
https://web.archive.org/web/20160630140 ... ezhour.htm

The February 2021 had 44 hours of freezing temperature.
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/2021ValentineStorm

The February 1895 and February 1899 freeze are in a class of its own. Same goes with January 1930 and February 1933.

There was a huge difference between CLL (and north) vs. HOU. We had snow cover and two 5°F nights. We had 7 days of subfreezing (Go albedo!) From Feb 13-Feb 20. Unforgettable.

Snows in NC usually happen before Valentine's Day, much less Texas.

[Cromagnum]

Nearly 20 degrees hotter than our average high today. So freaking gross.

[Stratton20]

Still 74 at 9 pm , absolutely disgusting

[Cromagnum]

So we've had maybe 1 week of fall this year. We may actually get "sort of winter" by the time astrological winter hits.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So we've had maybe 1 week of fall this year. We may actually get "sort of winter" by the time astrological winter hits.

I had a whole month of fall. Maybe 6 weeks.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GEFS, CMC and EPS all looking in step now for a big change mid week next week and lasting for a good while

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

October called and wants its temperatures back. The City of Houston
tied its record high yesterday and Houston-Hobby crushed its
previous record high by four degrees with temperatures in the mid
80s. Both locations also tied their daily record high minimum
temperatures with lows in the upper 60s. These are temperatures
typical of October, and in fact the low temperature for the City of
Houston was higher than what normal high temperature is for the day.
This near record heat will persist through the short term as high
pressure over the central Gulf brings a warm, moist southerly
flow into the region.

Weak shortwaves riding the western edge of the previously mentioned
high pressure will bring a slight chance of rain showers along the
coast this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Nothing more than a
trace of a hundreth of an inch of rain is expected from any of the
showers that form.

Currently have some patchy dense fog popping up along the coast
thats slowly creeping north. Have Marine Dense Fog Advisories out
for Galveston Bay and the near shore waters off of Galveston Bay.
Have also included areas south of I-10 in a Dense Fog Advisory
through the morning hours. The fog will dissipate through the
midmorning, but expect patchy, sometimes dense, fog returning
tonight into Thursday morning and possible again Thursday night into
Friday morning.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

In general, we`re expecting more of the same wx as described
above...albeit with a few uncertainties thrown in. Guidance is
showing some sct precip developing along & south of I-10 on Friday.
Don`t see anything glaring that would cause it (maybe subtle llvl
speed convergent zone?), but most there`s enough model support that
I`ll leave the 30-40% POPs as is there. Another question mark comes
into play Saturday night and Sunday. A mid level trof/shortwave
should be tracking eastward across the central Plains. ECMWF, ICON &
UKMET are depicting its associated diffuse frontal boundary and sct
shra trying to sag into the northern half of the CWA during that
time period. GFS not so much.
Again, we`ll leave some 30-40% POPs there although overall pattern
doesn`t really support too much southward progress of a surface
boundary.

Pattern change should finally be underway early next week as a broad,
deeper western trof makes its way into the central United States.
Anticipate a more legitimate cold front to sweep thru the area sometime
Tues or Wed and bring a return to seasonal, and likely eventually
below seasonal norms during the second half of next week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 445 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

LIFR to IFR conditions will persist through the morning for
terminals south of I-10 as dense fog reduces visibilities down
below 1 mile with CIGs down to 200 feet. These conditions will
improve through the mid morning to early afternoon hours, although
GLS will be battling the fog potential all day. Areas north of
I-10 this morning are more VFR to MVFR becoming VFR by the mid
morning. The fog potential returns across the coast, and even
further inland to IAH, by the late evening to near midnight hours.
LIFR to IFR conditions are possible again at GLS, LBX, SGR and
HOU tonight with IFR to MVFR conditions for the more northern
terminals. South to southeasterly flow around 10 to 15 knots will
persist today.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the weekend.
Warm, moist air over the colder water will provide an environment
conducive for periods of sea fog through the weekend...moreso in the
nighttime and morning hours closer to the coast and in the bays. It
probably will not be until early next week when the overall threat
subsides. That is when we will see increased southerly winds in
advance of cold frontal passage Tuesday or Wednesday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 69 81 66 / 10 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 84 69 83 67 / 20 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 77 67 76 66 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ214-226-
227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47

[Cpv17]

Possible severe weather outbreak next week for our far northern areas. Expect it to shift around in the coming days though.

[Stratton20]

Looks like the GFS is beginning to cave in, like what im seeing, active storm track gets pushed further south, sub tropical jet is active, arctic air moving in, looks like the GFS may finally be starting to see the pattern change coming, long range though, but progress is progress haha

[DoctorMu]

Relief on its way next week, but we're already closing in on the winter solstice.

The warm stretch would be better if it were accompanied by lower dewpoints. But Mid to upper 60s on DPs and record high lows. Yuck. It's too hot in CLL in the summer, so I try to get in shape this time of year...and the time window is shrinking thanks to more "summer."

[DoctorMu]

So...I'm looking at Gainesville, FL weather. Similar temps before and after the cool down next week, but their dew points are in the 50s. A light breeze. Comfortable.

Last year we had a little lower dewpoints and more sun - a more typical La Nina. La Nina in Texas is truly a box of chocolates.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

Lingering CIGS should scatter and lift to bring VFR conditions
this afternoon. Hazy conditions should persist throughout the day
at KGLS, with S/SW winds becoming S/SE this evening. Sea fog and
low CIGS should return tonight, brining widespread IFR conditions
across most of the region. Chances for LIFR CIGS/VIS will be
highest in areas near the coast early Thursday morning. Fog/CIGS
should begin to clear out during the late morning/early afternoon
hours on Thursday.

[Stratton20]

The 12z GEFS is very encouraging, looks like the model and ita ensembles are finally caving to the euro and cmc