December 2022

[sambucol]

Bring it!!

[Scott747]

I’m going to be taking some ITM BOIL options with a 12/16 expiration first thing tomorrow morning. I expect to make a quick buck on these.

Puts or calls? I noticed one of your posts recently musing that a snap back was weather related but it was likely an organic quick rally with natty recently down 25% over a few days. Energy is one of my things, but lord options can get ugly in a hurry when weather moves are involved. lol

I'll let you winter nerds get back to it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m going to be taking some ITM BOIL options with a 12/16 expiration first thing tomorrow morning. I expect to make a quick buck on these.

Puts or calls? I noticed one of your posts recently musing that a snap back was weather related but it was likely an organic quick rally with natty recently down 25% over a few days. Energy is one of my things, but lord options can get ugly in a hurry when weather moves are involved. lol

I'll let you winter nerds get back to it.

Fomo calls. Like a hour or two trade

[brazoriatx]

The 12Z GEFS is something to behold...

Doubtful will get snow all the way down here tho..altho its a good start

[Cpv17]

The 12Z GEFS is something to behold...

Doubtful will get snow all the way down here tho..altho its a good start

With this setup I wouldn’t say it’s doubtful and this is coming from someone that’s pretty realistic about things.

[brazoriatx]

The 12Z GEFS is something to behold...

Doubtful will get snow all the way down here tho..altho its a good start

With this setup I wouldn’t say it’s doubtful and this is coming from someone that’s pretty realistic about things.

I was always told that light grey usually doesn't mean nothing or am I wrong?

[Cpv17]

Doubtful will get snow all the way down here tho..altho its a good start

With this setup I wouldn’t say it’s doubtful and this is coming from someone that’s pretty realistic about things.

I was always told that light grey usually doesn't mean nothing or am I wrong?

For an ensemble mean, that is one hell of a signal. The grey colors indicate anything from just a trace to up to an inch. But again, for an ensemble mean this is an incredible map and unlike anything I’ve ever seen.

[srainhoutx]

The just Updated Day 11+ Super Ensembles
and Analogs have many memories of cold and some that brought wintry mischief across Texas and beyond.

[Cpv17]

The just Updated Day 11+ Super Ensembles
and Analogs have many memories of cold and some that brought wintry mischief across Texas and beyond.

This looks incredible! Thanks Steve for taking the time out of your day and posting on here. We really appreciate it!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I know it’s Bastardi. But he’s all in now.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 8crM8tzbuA

[sambucol]

I know it’s Bastardi. But he’s all in now.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 8crM8tzbuA

All the way to the upper Texas coast for this weather outbreak Joe talks about?

[Cpv17]

I know it’s Bastardi. But he’s all in now.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 8crM8tzbuA

All the way to the upper Texas coast for this weather outbreak Joe talks about?

Yes.

[don]

The pattern the models have setting up around the 17th of the month and onward is a textbook setup for significant winter weather down here.With multiple gulf lows spawning off the coast and allowing arctic air to filter in on the backside of the low,with overrunning precip.It's the pattern you want to see if you're looking for winter storms along the gulf coast.

[vci_guy2003]

I remember 3-4 days before the Feb 2021 outbreak, the Euro said it was going to be 50s and sunny, and the GFS foretold the epic winter storm. Is this setup the same, or are the parameters for this outbreak more certain to happen?

[Cpv17]

I remember 3-4 days before the Feb 2021 outbreak, the Euro said it was going to be 50s and sunny, and the GFS foretold the epic winter storm. Is this setup the same, or are the parameters for this outbreak more certain to happen?

Looks like a more certain thing this time because there’s consensus among all the models that something is brewing but we just don’t know the severity of it yet. Might not be as bad as Feb 21 or it might be. Could even be like Dec 83 or 89. Don’t really know yet.

[sambucol]

I remember 3-4 days before the Feb 2021 outbreak, the Euro said it was going to be 50s and sunny, and the GFS foretold the epic winter storm. Is this setup the same, or are the parameters for this outbreak more certain to happen?

Looks like a more certain thing this time because there’s consensus among all the models that something is brewing but we just don’t know the severity of it yet. Might not be as bad as Feb 21 or it might be. Could even be like Dec 83 or 89. Don’t really know yet.

We are going ahead and preparing the houses. Ain’t nobody got time for a busted water pipe again around here.

[txsnowmaker]

The possibilities are getting rather exciting, especially seeing those analog years…

[txsnowmaker]

The pattern the models have setting up around the 17th of the month and onward is a textbook setup for significant winter weather down here.With multiple gulf lows spawning off the coast and allowing arctic air to filter in on the backside of the low,with overrunning precip.It's the pattern you want to see if you're looking for winter storms along the gulf coast.

We sure don’t see that potential very often around here. Thank you for your insights.

[Cpv17]

Channel 13 forecast has no 30’s in the forecast the next 10 days and has highs in the mid 50’s to low 60’s lol

[brazoriatx]

Channel 13 forecast has no 30’s in the forecast the next 10 days and has highs in the mid 50’s to low 60’s lol

They ALWAYS do this..they gotta be cautious at first