Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:53 amI had to leave Facebook over all the idiotic commentary all over it.
Same here. I mostly use Reddit for viewing more nuanced discourse, as well as (sparingly) a few "dedicated" forums like this one. Then YouTube for going through more intense, informative content. Then Instagram simply for the curated visuals.
I cannot comment on TikTok, as I have never used it, so don't know how discussion formats are on there. And I mostly would ignore Twitter, but it seems to be a well-loved media by a lot of Meteos like Larry Cosgrove, Judah Cohen and JoeBastardi, as well amateurs on WX boards.
Guys, operational models at this range (7-9 days out) are basically like throwing darts blindfolded. You’re going to see a lot of different outcomes. Some may get lucky a few times and hit the bullseye but most will not.
brazoriatx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:51 am
Ppl on 2k are already saying 57 was right lol get one bad run and the house falls down
Classic, illogical thinking and reaction that is so dominant in society now.
Wxman has always been the voice of reason in these scenarios. Its why I dont rush out for insulation until WXman 57 says its going to get cold. I was surprised by how many were actually calling him a troll....... Anyone who is honest would have to admit the odds are always in favor of the voice of reason when it comes to really cold air and winter weather here in SETX despite what all the models say leading up.
I have no idea how this will eventually play out, just know I follow the voice of reason up to when he heads for Australia
If you look at WxMan's more serious posts, he is consistently saying it's too early to tell and a lot will hinge on how cold it gets in Canada. Wait a few more days....the models will swing between now and then. He just posted a comparison to the models in 2021, without the brick jokes.
Some things just never change.. I've been a member of this forum since it opened years ago at the old location
Of course no one would know that since the moderators of this forum during that phase decided I was not wothy of a veteran tag here. Why, you ask? Because I would call things like they are. The weather gods are all long gone. Doc, Taft, etc.. We have folks passing on model information. Beyond three days. Forget about it. I've seen things flip in 24 hours before an "event".. The veterans of this forum should know better by now. The new folks, well welcome to weather forums. And to think some people get paid for extended weather forecasting that is completely useless.
Some things just never change.. I've been a member of this forum since it opened years ago at the old location
Of course no one would know that since the moderators of this forum during that phase decided I was not wothy of a veteran tag here. Why, you ask? Because I would call things like they are. The weather gods are all long gone. Doc, Taft, etc.. We have folks passing on model information. Beyond three days. Forget about it. I've seen things flip in 24 hours before an "event".. The veterans of this forum should know better by now. The new folks, well welcome to weather forums. And to think some people get paid for extended weather forecasting that is completely useless.
Truth, they way they were going at WXman57 is was starting to wonder if it was ARIZONA come back under WXman handle
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:53 am
Sometimes people take satire too seriously.
If you look at WxMan's more serious posts, he is consistently saying it's too early to tell and a lot will hinge on how cold it gets in Canada. Wait a few more days....the models will swing between now and then. He just posted a comparison to the models in 2021, without the brick jokes.
If you know Wxman57 personally, like Jason and I ( and others) he has a wicked sense of humor. Some folks take it personally. Why, I do not know. Lol. Always look for the source regions, like he preaches. Watch the models 5 days out. I agree with you Jason.
Some things just never change.. I've been a member of this forum since it opened years ago at the old location
Of course no one would know that since the moderators of this forum during that phase decided I was not wothy of a veteran tag here. Why, you ask? Because I would call things like they are. The weather gods are all long gone. Doc, Taft, etc.. We have folks passing on model information. Beyond three days. Forget about it. I've seen things flip in 24 hours before an "event".. The veterans of this forum should know better by now. The new folks, well welcome to weather forums. And to think some people get paid for extended weather forecasting that is completely useless.
It’s really not that difficult. Just put a lot more weight into the ensembles vs operationals till you get within 3 days. And look at your teleconnections.
Forgot to add to this but I wanted to say monitor your source region as well. This air is supposed to be coming from Siberia (one of the coldest places in the world) and cross over the pole and flood into NW Canada. How cold it gets in Canada will be key to how cold it gets here and how much and how far of a snowpack will be built south because the air won’t modify as much with a solid snowpack.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
Some things just never change.. I've been a member of this forum since it opened years ago at the old location
Of course no one would know that since the moderators of this forum during that phase decided I was not wothy of a veteran tag here. Why, you ask? Because I would call things like they are. The weather gods are all long gone. Doc, Taft, etc.. We have folks passing on model information. Beyond three days. Forget about it. I've seen things flip in 24 hours before an "event".. The veterans of this forum should know better by now. The new folks, well welcome to weather forums. And to think some people get paid for extended weather forecasting that is completely useless.
Truth, they way they were going at WXman57 is was starting to wonder if it was ARIZONA come back under WXman handle
I have noticed that alot of the discussion has tapered off as far as "historic arctic outbreak" and has scaled back to more of a "colder than normal" tone over the last few days.
I’ve been here as long as a lot of folks. Since the earliest days at the other site. You’d think we’d learn our lesson by now. This is classic for models and the cold every time we have a cold season. Those that have been here can tell you how many times the models will shunt the cold air East. Dense arctic cold air just doesn’t do that. It always drops under it’s own weight south. But every time there’s a massive arctic outbreak, the models push it east. Besides all that I’ve said, we are still far out from the event and shouldn’t put stock in much of the models in the extended range for specifics.
