December 2022

[don]

While not the best setup for snow for us,such setups have produced snow in the past around here.There will be energy moving in the northwest flow aloft with the trough.Models are showing a coastal trough trying to develop as the system digs around Christmas.We just need the system to dig a little more and slow down.The December 4th 2009 snowstorm had a similar setup to what the models are showing around Christmas.Temps don't look to be an issue just need enough lift.For a more significant event you would want the vorticity to come in around the 4 corners region and dip south of El Paso to produce a decent gulf low.Will be keeping an eye on this to see how models trend with the system over the next week.

[Stratton20]

Don we also need more available moisture as well I believe

[vci_guy2003]

Any idea on the duration of the cold/precipitation through Christmas Day and beyond?

[Cpv17]

Any idea on the duration of the cold/precipitation through Christmas Day and beyond?

It’s supposed to warm up a bit the day after Christmas but long ways out and expect changes.

[Texaspirate11]

I just pray the grid doesn't fail us again

[don]

Don we also need more available moisture as well I believe

Which is why you want a coastal trough or gulf low to develop.The moisture is always there in the gulf,but you need a system strong enough to tap into it and overcome the dry air in place.At the same time you don't want the system to be too strong either,as that could overwhelm the cold air in place with too much warm moist air from the gulf(warm nosing) and we end up with a cold rain instead.Getting snow around here is often "needle and threaded".

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I just pray the grid doesn't fail us again

It’s not going to. I went through this several pages back, but you have my word it’s not going to fail.

It would take an extremely long cold snap worse than 1983 for the grid to be challenged. 2021 was gross negligence of private NG stations being offline for maintenance BEFORE the cold ever hit.

Wind and solar will fail as usual but they aren’t baseload power. They are just supplemental “feels good” power.

[Ptarmigan]

Coldest Christmas Days recorded in Houston.
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_hol ... %20degrees.

11°F 1983
20°F 1989
26°F 1990
27°F 1924
29°F 1985

If we go by the forecast, it could tie with 1924, 1985, and 1990.

There was freezing rain in December 1924 and 1990.

Historical Annotated Review Of Winter Kills Of Marine organisms In Texas Bays
https://tpwd.texas.gov/publications/pwd ... MDS118.pdf

Southeast Texas has Rough Winters too! (January 2013)
https://www.sfasu.edu/heritagecenter/6986.asp

Climatic Guide for Houston-Galveston, Texas Area
https://books.google.com/books?id=56lhL ... on&f=false

[Cpv17]

Coldest Christmas Days recorded in Houston.
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_hol ... %20degrees.

11°F 1983
20°F 1989
26°F 1990
27°F 1924
29°F 1985

If we go by the forecast, it could tie with 1924, 1985, and 1990.

There was freezing rain in December 1924 and 1990.

Historical Annotated Review Of Winter Kills Of Marine organisms In Texas Bays
https://tpwd.texas.gov/publications/pwd ... MDS118.pdf

Southeast Texas has Rough Winters too! (January 2013)
https://www.sfasu.edu/heritagecenter/6986.asp

Climatic Guide for Houston-Galveston, Texas Area
https://books.google.com/books?id=56lhL ... on&f=false

I didn’t realize 1983 got that cold. I always thought it was just a long duration freeze but nothing extreme like that.

[DoctorMu]

I just pray the grid doesn't fail us again

It’s not going to. I went through this several pages back, but you have my word it’s not going to fail.

It would take an extremely long cold snap worse than 1983 for the grid to be challenged. 2021 was gross negligence of private NG stations being offline for maintenance BEFORE the cold ever hit.

Wind and solar will fail as usual but they aren’t baseload power. They are just supplemental “feels good” power.

Right. There are more natural gas power plants up and ready. There were too many undergoing repairs and overhaul preparation for the summer. They could get enough NG plants back up in time. It's hard to believe, but the blackout and rolling blackouts could have been worse and a complete collapse of the grid.

[DoctorMu]

Also, even though we produce 26% of the US wind power, Texas doesn't have the transmission network to carry the extra electricity

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/02 ... nd-energy/

Texas had it easy with enough NG, oil, some nuclear. Politics and ERCOT haven't been exactly forward thinking.

[Stratton20]

00z GFS drops down the piece of energy near the four corners region like what don mentioned, a coastal low develops in response and it has a wintry mix

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Below freezing for lows from Friday morning through Wednesday so far…. Highs in the low to upper 30s the whole time

Christmas morning snow of 1-2 inches

[don]

Yep a snowstorm on Christmas . something like what the 0Z GFS shows is possible if that disturbance is potent enough and digs/hangs to the southwest.

[Cpv17]

0z GEFS is going to be really interesting. Gotta wake up at 6:30AM but I think I’m gonna stay up a lil longer lol

[Harveyvsallison]

Yep a snowstorm on Christmas . something like what the 0Z GFS shows is possible if that disturbance is potent enough and digs/hangs to the southwest.

I like how you said “Snowstorm” it’s only an coating. This is way too far out to automatically ride the GFS

[sambucol]

0z GEFS is going to be really interesting. Gotta wake up at 6:30AM but I think I’m gonna stay up a lil longer lol

I’m waiting, too.

[Stratton20]

00z GEFS does have some members that support the op run for a coastal system, and some aggressive too

[don]

Yep a snowstorm on Christmas . something like what the 0Z GFS shows is possible if that disturbance is potent enough and digs/hangs to the southwest.

I like how you said “Snowstorm” it’s only an coating. This is way too far out to automatically ride the GFS

You think i don't know that? There's a reason why the emoji was used its called sarcasm.You barely post here, but you sure have come out of the woodwork to be messy today...We all know not to trust the models that far out, but that's NOT going to stop us from talking about it though.This is a weather DISCUSSION board.I already explained earlier what i think about the potential setup around Christmas.

[Cpv17]

00z GEFS does have some members that support the op run for a coastal system, and some aggressive too

Thanks for letting us know Stratton. Good signs!