December 2022

[Stratton20]

00z GEFS guidance, that is pretty decent support, not all members agree the frontal passage may be dry, especially for our area, about 7-9 members have snow in our area

[txsnowmaker]

00z GEFS guidance, that is pretty decent support, not all members agree the frontal passage may be dry, especially for our area, about 7-9 members have snow in our area

Seems kind of messed up. Really wouldn’t expect freezing rain in Houston as depicted in those maps with forecasted temps in the 20s. Anything falling then should be snow.

[Cpv17]

00z GEFS guidance, that is pretty decent support, not all members agree the frontal passage may be dry, especially for our area, about 7-9 members have snow in our area

Seems kind of messed up. Really wouldn’t expect freezing rain in Houston as depicted in those maps with forecasted temps in the 20s. Anything falling then should be snow.

That’s not uncommon at all actually. It’s called a warm nose.

[jasons2k]

No fun having a freeze warning issued at 5:30 while already headed to a holiday party. Had to scramble and cover what we could and hope for the best…I hate freezing weather!!

[christinac2016]

Watched khou just now. No mention of precip after Monday. They show teens as low for Friday. But I know reading on here they may be playing it safe.
Only got down to 33 my neck of the woods.
First time leasing other than apartment. Maybe the pipes are already wrapped.

[redneckweather]

Grasping for straws for the wintry weather...not going to happen this go around. Just very cold and dry. As I mentioned, hopefully February will give us a surprise but then again, we live in Southeast, Texas.

[brazoriatx]

Ya..it's not looking that great now for precip. Oh well enjoy the cold while it's here!

[djmike]

What is this 75-78 temperature I see the week before new years? Really? Thought the cold was going to stick around after Thursday. Not continue the roller coaster. Ugggh! Just determined to get sick!

[brazoriatx]

What is this 75-78 temperature I see the week before new years? Really? Thought the cold was going to stick around after Thursday. Not continue the roller coaster. Ugggh! Just determined to get sick!2504D68F-ACDC-4D10-BF7C-4E5C3BCA7E93.jpeg

You live in south east Texas lol..won't stay cold her3 forever

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Don’t think those 70s will verify. Probably will see some 60s before it cools down again around New Years.

[djmike]

Don’t think those 70s will verify. Probably will see some 60s before it cools down again around New Years.

THANK YOU

[djmike]

I KNOW it wont stay cold here forever! But I do remember when we actually had “winter” months. 1980s/90s, Dec-Feb stayed cold. I don't remember the major temp differences like we have now back in the day. Heater stayed on HEAT! Not this back and forth AC then Heater weather. Would be nice to have real winter months like we use to. Jmo!!

[brazoriatx]

Ppl in North Texas and Oklahoma are greedy lol that is all

[Cpv17]

Grasping for straws for the wintry weather...not going to happen this go around. Just very cold and dry. As I mentioned, hopefully February will give us a surprise but then again, we live in Southeast, Texas.

Not really. Every wintry weather event we’ve had here that I can remember wasn’t picked up till within range of the Hi-res models 24-48 hours before the event. It’s not likely but it’s not impossible.

[Cpv17]

What is this 75-78 temperature I see the week before new years? Really? Thought the cold was going to stick around after Thursday. Not continue the roller coaster. Ugggh! Just determined to get sick!2504D68F-ACDC-4D10-BF7C-4E5C3BCA7E93.jpeg

I have a hard enough time believing a forecast that’s 5 days out, much less a week+ out.

[TexasMetBlake]

Hey all, been a while! I need to figure out how to change my username. Obviously, I’m not with KHOU any longer.

Interesting times ahead! I still think the models are too warm for daytime highs and lows. With winds of 40mph and clear skies, pure arctic advection driven by a 1068 mb high should drive our temps to the mid teens. The strong wind will keep the atmosphere really mixed BUT we do have good snow cover to our north with an airmass that was formally -80°F in Siberia.

I’m impatiently waiting for the NAM to get within range. I suspect we’ll see our forecast numbers go lower. Will we challenge Feb 2021 levels? Might be close.

Feb 2021 Coldest High: 25 degrees (we were at 23° up until 4pm and the sky cleared allowing a last second temp spike to 25°.

Coldest low was 13°. Might be tough to get there but it may not be too far away either.

As far as wintry precip, I think suppression will keep our precip chances near zero despite a piece of vorticity coming across the region. Never say never tho! 12z suites are running now. Let’s see what it has.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 exactly, im not ready to write off precipitation yet, yeah the OP run is still dry but look at the 06z GEFS ensembles ( 12z isnt out yet) they paint quite a bit of a different story at hour 120, thats why im not putting stock into a fully dry forecast just yet

[Cpv17]

Hey all, been a while! I need to figure out how to change my username. Obviously, I’m not with KHOU any longer.

Interesting times ahead! I still think the models are too warm for daytime highs and lows. With winds of 40mph and clear skies, pure arctic advection driven by a 1068 mb high should drive our temps to the mid teens. The strong wind will keep the atmosphere really mixed BUT we do have good snow cover to our north with an airmass that was formally -80°F in Siberia.

I’m impatiently waiting for the NAM to get within range. I suspect we’ll see our forecast numbers go lower. Will we challenge Feb 2021 levels? Might be close.

Feb 2021 Coldest High: 25 degrees (we were at 23° up until 4pm and the sky cleared allowing a last second temp spike to 25°.

Coldest low was 13°. Might be tough to get there but it may not be too far away either.

As far as wintry precip, I think suppression will keep our precip chances near zero despite a piece of vorticity coming across the region. Never say never tho! 12z suites are running now. Let’s see what it has.

This has been my thinking as well. I said on Storm2K that I think Dallas makes a run at 5°F and Houston makes a run at 15°F.

Thanks for posting!

[don]

Agree that chances are low that we will see any snow from this event.I also don't like the trend of some of the models taking the energy more north now.Saying that if we can get the shortwave to dig more and close off or become negatively titled that should do the trick.Will still need to wait till we get in range of the mesoscale models before i completely write it off yet.

[Stratton20]

Fingers crossed for a white christmas! Cant wait for the cold but those wind chills are going to SUCK!